Fantasy Baseball Sleepers & Busts: St. Louis Cardinals

That’s kind of a hodgepodge of stats, but they do a really good job of speaking to the type of player that Donovan was for the St. Louis Cardinals in 2022. He swung at an incredibly low rate, laid off pitches outside of the strike zone, and very rarely whiffed. Those are all positive trends. While he doesn’t make a ton of sweet spot contact, he works his way on base via walks and a high contact rate.

In certain respects, there’s a level of similarity with his compatriot Tommy Edman. The versatility, the high contact. But he has a far better approach in terms of being able to work his way on base via the free pass than Edman does. Is it a fine line to walk when you’ve got such a low swing rate and you’re going to be working from behind quite often? Sure. You can’t underscore the contact ability within that, though. And just as we saw Edman’s runs scored numbers shoot up with increased playing time, we could absolutely see a similar trend with Donovan. The on-base combined with the offense around him should provide a lot of value out of Donovan. Even if there isn’t a lot of sexiness from him in the box score as far as power is concerned (that’s never coming, either).

Jordan Montgomery

For one, his groundball rate jumped up to an even 50 percent. That includes almost 57 percent on the sinker consistently. For another, he cut both his Solid% & SS% about two percent each. There was a little bit of variation in punchouts & walks, but that speaks to what the sinker is striving to do. You’re not going to generate as many strikeouts with that pitch. But you’re likely going to draw more swings and less quality contact, which is exactly what we’re seeing with Montgomery. He’s not an overpowering pitcher, but for a team like the St. Louis Cardinals, he might be the perfect pitcher. Especially when you consider the defense behind him.

The Cardinals were an upper-tier defensive team last year, to put it lightly. That infield group is phenomenal with the glove, and Tyler O’Neill & Dylan Carlson are not without their defensive merits. Sinker-curve-changeup right into the teeth of the defense? Sure. If there’s a question, it’ll be how Willson Contreras‘ lower-rated game behind the plate impacts Montgomery (and the rest of the staff, to be honest). His issues with framing, etc. are likely at least somewhat overblown, especially since Yadier Molina was probably overrated with his skill set (but not in his ability to handle a staff), but it’s not nothing.

Montgomery’s sinker-centric usage could be enough to overcome any insufficiencies from their new backstop, though.

Some stuff to unpack there. Obviously, the four-seam usage spiked. And with it, you’re going to see an increase in contact against and things of that nature. It just comes with a higher volume. But the dip in Zone%, CS%, and CSW% all speak to some issues with command. When you’re featuring a pitch almost half the time, that’s going to be problematic. What also didn’t help was that he wasn’t generating strikes with the secondary stuff, either. He walked over five hitters per nine in 2022. Velocity/spin rates changed only marginally, so there isn’t any sort of underlying issue anywhere else. It’s placement, which is something that Flaherty did extremely well with the four-seamer when he started to feature it prominently.

Now, here’s the caveat: it was nine starts. Hardly enough for us to scream about the command issues for very long. But the season before was only 15 starts. So now you’ve got some durability concerns on top of potential issues with command. There’s probably a link there somewhere. The positive for the St. Louis Cardinals is that they have plenty of starting caliber arms to rely upon. But from a ‘bust’ standpoint, you’ve got to readjust to fix those command issues while maintaining health. Both elements have seen a downward trend over three (shortened) years. He’s just too difficult to trust right now.

Nolan Gorman came into 2022 as one of the more notable prospects on the cusp. There are a lot of offensive tools there. Decent power, decent on-base, but he’s kind of the anti-Brendan Donovan when it comes to the approach. While Donovan thrived in his rookie campaign thanks to the intense approach and high contact ability, Gorman went in the opposite direction. His 17.6 percent SwStr% and 30.4 percent CSW% both factored into the higher end of all qualified hitters. He ended up reaching base at just an even .300 clip, even with a solid .301 BABIP. That’s a problem, especially as the Cardinals sat closer to the top of the league in Contact%. It’s part of their offensive identity. Adjustment to the top level? Maybe. But it’s not as if it was an unseen element of his game prior.

Another issue for Gorman moving forward is going to be finding opportunities. While the Cardinals aren’t a roster that is stretched super deep, they are pretty set 1-9 in their lineup. Brendan Donovan needs somewhere to play. Paul DeJong will probably steal at-bats. Willson Contreras will DH plenty. Jordan Walker could force his way in there. It’s more moving parts than actual depth. Nonetheless, it could eat into any opportunities that Gorman could grab as a regular in the lineup.

What’s interesting about Gorman is that with the right swing, he could very well be on the other side of this. It’s not as if second base is loaded with premier offensive talent. There’s a top tier, for sure. You’ve got some on-base and plenty of steals at the position as a whole. There isn’t a lot of power to go around at the position, however. Even if he does garner some chances at the keystone and maintains a strong quality of contact, though, is there even enough power in there to compensate for the shortcomings? The prospect shine is fading quickly for Nolan Gorman.

Photos by Icon Sportswire | Adapted by Justin Redler (@reldernitsuj on Twitter)