Trade deadlines can, and often do, shape the fortunes of teams for the rest of the season. A shrewd trade can send a team’s ceiling into the stratosphere, while a poor one can have them come crashing back to earth.
It’s why the trade deadline is so crucial each year, but it’s also decidedly crucial for fantasy managers.
Generally speaking, there usually aren’t as many viable fantasy options on real-life teams that struggle compared to those jockeying for positioning at the top of the standings.
But, there are obvious and notable exceptions to that rule, and when fantasy-relevant players from those teams are traded in real life, the impact potential (negative or positive) can be significant. Is a player going from a full-time role with a rebuilding club to a platoon situation with a contending one? Is a starting pitcher suddenly moving to a decidedly much more fantasy-friendly environment in which he’ll throw in a more pitcher-friendly ballpark with a better lineup supporting him?
We’ll focus more on the latter here, more specifically the potential positive impact of real-life trades for players’ fantasy ceilings. Of course, the column won’t go without a mention of pitching, but this is all about the players who could see their fantasy prospects improve considerably with a trade (also the right trade) at the deadline.
Players who, as a result, could help send your fantasy team’s ceiling into the stratosphere.
Luis Robert Jr. and Garrett Crochet
See? There’s the pitching.
Arguably the two best players, both from a fantasy and real-life standpoint who could (speculatively speaking) be traded this summer, Luis Robert Jr. and Garrett Crochet are already upper-echelon fantasy options.
What with the former bringing an elite power and speed upside to the table, and the latter quickly establishing himself as one of baseball’s best starters.
Robert Jr. missed time this season due to a hip flexor strain but has been plenty productive for fantasy purposes both since he’s returned and when he’s been in the lineup. For the season, the 26-year-old is batting .224 with a .302 on-base percentage, but he’s already added 10 home runs and seven stolen bases in just 159 plate appearances.
A 33.3% strikeout rate, which would easily be a career-worst if the season ended today, certainly isn’t anything to write home about, and his .323 xwOBA is more middle of the road, but it’s the speed and power potential. Robert logged 20 stolen bases last season in 595 plate appearances and looks well on his way to eclipsing that number this season.
Most crucially for fantasy managers, however, is that the 26-year-old is sporting a 75.4 mph bat speed, a 15.6% barrel rate, and a 44.4% hard-hit rate.
We’ve seen firsthand what players with those kinds of metrics, despite underwhelming plate discipline metrics, can do from a fantasy counting stat standpoint in a quality lineup.
Just look at Teoscar Hernández.
Ok, so maybe Hernández wasn’t the best example purely based on the strength in depth and quality of the Dodgers lineup he frequents on daily basis. It’s a best-case scenario for a hitter like Hernández or Robert Jr. who makes a ton of loud contact.
But by the same token, Robert Jr. might be in a worst-case scenario in that regard. The White Sox have struggled to score runs all season, but since Robert Jr.’s first game back from the injured list on June 4th, Chicago has scored the fewest runs in the league and 18 runs fewer than the next-closest team. They’re also second to last in both wRC+ and on-base percentage during that span.
If traded by the White Sox, it’s not hard to imagine Robert Jr. producing at the type of elite rate Hernández has so far, even if his strikeout rate is up a bit (comparatively) and his xwOBA is quite as high.
And then there’s the stolen base potential, something Hernández doesn’t quite have at the same, decidedly above-average level as Luis Robert Jr.
League winner is the phrase that comes to mind here, upside-wise.
Speaking of league winners, Garrett Crochet has been one so far, for all those who added him via waivers early in the season.
If he’s on your roster, you probably know just how good he’s been. A 92nd or better percentile ranking in whiff rate, xERA, strikeout rate, and xBA. A walk rate (5.5%) and chase rate (32.6%) that are both decidedly above-average, a 3.08 ERA and a 2.43 FIP in 105.1 innings.
He’s even managed to log six pitcher wins for the season, pitching with the run support of that aforementioned lineup.
He’s going to be good wherever he pitches. Hitter-friendly park. Pitcher-friendly park. With a good lineup. Pitching in front of one that doesn’t score too much. His ascension to being arguably fantasy’s best starter so far despite the White Sox struggling lineup is a testament to that.
Certainly, some situations are going to be better for him, like say being traded to a team with a very pitcher-friendly park. But, the real thing to watch here is the pitcher-win potential.
Crochet might already be fantasy’s best starter, but a move to a team that could supply him with regular pitcher win opportunities could carve out a wide gap between him and the rest of the field in terms of who finishes the year as fantasy’s best hurler.
Jazz Chisholm Jr. and Jesus Sanchez
Continuing with the comparisons to Teoscar Hernández’s numbers, Jesus Sanchez certainly fits the bill in that regard as a player making consistent loud contact, but with perhaps a slightly lower average and an elevated strikeout rate.
But more on him in a moment.
First, let’s discuss Jazz Chisholm Jr.
With 11 home runs and 18 stolen bases this season, Chisholm Jr. has now reached double-digit home run and stolen base production four straight seasons, despite the fact that he’s logged more than 385 plate appearances in a season just once before this year.
The outfielder has a real chance to top the 18 home runs and 23 stolen bases that he logged in 507 plate appearances during the 2021 season by a considerable margin. All things considered, the 20 home run, 40 stolen base mark doesn’t seem too outside the realm of possibilities for the 26-year-old, something that’s happened only 16 times this century.
In fact, it’s only happened three times in the last three years. The three players to do it? Bobby Witt Jr., Corbin Carroll, and Ronald Acuña Jr., all of whom accomplished the feat last year.
And that’s not to say anything of a similar uptick in RBI and run-scored opportunities Chisholm Jr. could see moving to a better lineup. Like Robert Jr., there’s league-winning upside here if the Marlins trade the outfielder.
Staying in the outfield in Miami and paying off the mention of the Jesus Sanchez and Teoscar Hernández comparison earlier, there’s actually a very real argument to be made that the 26-year-old is having a better season in terms of contact and type of contact than Hernández.
However, with a .240 average and a .291 on-base percentage, he’s probably the most undervalued fantasy player on this list and very much worth acquiring for fantasy managers for the stretch.
Just like with Robert Jr., or perhaps more so given where Sanchez’s current production sits, a move to a contending lineup could unlock impact fantasy production. Admittedly, the outfielder’s underlying metrics point to that type of production (to an extent) coming at some point, but a mid-season, real-life trade could make it a sooner rather than later type of scenario.
It should be noted, that Craig Mish reported in an article in The Miami Herald on July 8th that “The Marlins like Jesus Sanchez and his high exit velocities, and will likely hold him and give him more playing time in 2025.”
That being said, if the Marlins did end up trading the outfielder, he could be a game-changer for fantasy managers down the stretch.
Brent Rooker has been to fantasy hitters this season what Garrett Crochet has been to fantasy pitchers.
Ok, so maybe not quite. Rooker enjoyed a solid breakout season last year, one replete with 30 home runs, four stolen bases, a .343 xwOBA, and a 127 wRC+ in 526 plate appearances for the Oakland A’s. Crochet didn’t quite have that track record. And while Rooker’s fantasy production has been more above average than elite, he’s been excellent at the plate so far.
In short, what he’s done this season has established himself as one of the league’s premier power threats.
A .382 xwOBA, a 16.6% barrel rate, a 50.8% hard-hit rate, and a .562 xSLG. These are all metrics that both populate Brent Rooker’s stat pages and sit in the 90th percentile or better league-wide.
He’s been elite when making contact.
And while a 32.6% strikeout rate and a 35.0% whiff rate are decidedly not good, the 29-year-old has still managed to do all this (as well as collect 18 home runs, 55 RBI, 38 runs scored and four stolen bases in 322 plate appearances) despite playing for a team with the league’s fourth-lowest on-base percentage and in a ballpark that (per Statcast) has the third-lowest park factor for home runs in the last three seasons.
And while Rooker has actually been a bit better at home this season, it’s hard not to imagine him thriving even in a league-average lineup with a ballpark that is somewhere down the middle between pitcher or hitter-friendly.
Speaking of home and road splits, Ryan McMahon has actually been better away from the friendly confines of Coors Field than he has been at home this season in nearly even sample sizes.
Remaining at Coors Field through the deadline certainly isn’t the worst outcome here, but there’s plenty to like about McMahon’s fantasy prospects if he’s traded away. The veteran infielder very much seems like he could be (if traded) the next in a long line of quality Rockies hitters to thrive after departing Colorado. See Nolan Arenado and DJ LeMahieu among others.
Furthermore, the infielder is one of just 26 qualified batters this year to sit in the 80th percentile or better in all three of the following categories: xwOBA, barrel rate, and hard-hit rate. For the most, the vast majority of the names on that list are on contending teams and are unlikely to be dealt to a different fantasy situation.
If McMahon is traded in real life, he could have a real shot at finishing the year in the Top 50 players overall. Because for as well as the 29-year-old has done on the road this season, the Rockies have scored the fourth-fewest road runs this season.
Put the infielder on a more balanced scoring team, in terms of home and road splits, and above-average fantasy stats should follow.