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Sale makes his return from the DL, but Carrasco is the must play pitcher of the day.
12 Games- 1:05 PM ET
Must Play SP: Carlos Carrasco, CLE ($21,300) @ CWS
Not much has changed about the White Sox since yesterday. They struck out twelve times in thirty-two plate appearances, and had no sign of offense outside of Yoan Moncada’s home run. Carrasco has strung together four straight quality starts, striking out an average of eight batters per outing with a 2.o2 ERA. If their strikeout issues don’t make the play appealing enough, the White Sox have a wRC+ of 30 since Monday.
Honorable Mention: Noah Syndergaard ($20,500)
Value SP: Luke Weaver, STL ($13,600) @ KC
Over his past four starts, Weaver has had two quality starts and two where he hasn’t made it past the fourth inning. While the results have been inconsistent, his xFIP has been consistently lower than his ERA in all of his starts. In the two starts he struggled, Weaver walked an average of 15% of the batters he faced; in the two starts he looked good, he had zero walks. Given Kansas City has the third lowest walk percentage in baseball and the positive regression his xFIP suggests is due, Weaver is a strong candidate for a high value return.
Honorable Mention: Kohl Stewart ($10,300)
IF: Miguel Andujar, NYY ($9,400) vs. TEX (Martin Perez)
The Yankees are the best team in baseball against left handed pitching. That’s definitely reflected in their prices today, but the way Andujar has been swinging the bat, the premium is more than justified. The rookie third baseman is carrying an OPS of 1.236 into today’s game, and Perez’s abysmal 6.15 ERA indicates that Andujar should continue to mash. Surprisingly, he only has one double this week, but he also has three home runs, so maybe he’s on the Matt Carpenter trajectory?
Honorable Mention: Rhys Hoskins ($8,200)
OF: Lorenzo Cain, MIL ($8,400) @ ATL (Sean Newcomb)
Cain’s wRC+ this week makes him seem like a questionable DFS play. It’s not glaringly terrible like Yelich’s or Thames’, but it’s still below league average by two percentage points. Over the course of this season though, Cain has the 15th best wRC+ against lefties, and with the sample size at 106 plate appearances, it’s large enough of a sample to confidently make judgments off of. Cain has been hitting the ball hard, he’s just been putting it on the ground too often for the results to match the batted balls. If he can raise the launch angle just a bit, he should be a sneaky good play this afternoon.
Honorable Mention: Andrew Benintendi ($10,300)
Value Hitter: Devin Mesoraco, NYM ($6,800) vs. MIA (Wei-Yin Chen)
Most Mets are terrible against left handed pitching, but Mesoraco is the diamond in the rough. His wRC+ is over 150 against lefties this season, and Chen’s xFIP suggests that he was lucky in his previous outing against St. Louis, so his 4.36 ERA since the beginning of July is about what you can expect; decent, but not dominant pitching. Mesoraco’s been really bad this week, but he’s only had ten plate appearances. Regardless, if the Mets opt to start Kevin Plawecki, look to Austin Romine as the value play instead.
Honorable Mention: Austin Romine ($6,600)
Stack: Boston Red Sox @ Baltimore Orioles (Alex Cobb)
If only my Red Sox suggestion was for game on yesterday *sigh*. Fantasy can be so cruel. I’m feeling some roasted Cobb this afternoon, but the Red Sox are expensive. Jackie Bradley Jr. looks to be a good play, as his wRC+ against right handed pitching this season is only three percent below league average, and considering how bad his first half was (he only has an 85 wRC+ on the season), that’s a solid play. Andrew Benintendi is the cheapest big name hitter, but Betts and Martinez have been killing opposing pitchers this week more than Benny. Rafael Devers and Brock Holt are other affordable bats that have been playing at least 30% better than league average.
Honorable Mention: Cleveland Indians @ Chicago White Sox