From Rich To Porcello

After last year’s “Cy Young” season from Rick Porcello, I haven’t been expecting the same season from the Red Sox “Ace”, but not like this. After last night’s 6.0 IP, 3...

After last year’s “Cy Young” season from Rick Porcello, I haven’t been expecting the same season from the Red Sox “Ace”, but not like this. After last night’s 6.0 IP, 3 ER, 9 Hits, 0 BBs, 7 Ks, Porcello has a 4.01 ERA, 1.34 WHIP, but a 9.49 K/9 and 1.64 BB/9. Is this the life Porcello is living now? A PQS (Pity Quality Start, i.e. 3 ER in 6 innings. You can hear the stat lord saying “ugh, fine I guess I’ll give you one”) and 1.50 WHIP but a great amount of Ks and zero walks? What’s super weird is everything kinda checks out that it will…He’s holding a crazy good 11.1% whiff rate (with a 13.3% whiff rate on his Four-Seamer! What?! There’s also a 21.3% whiff rate on his Slider after sitting around 10-11% for years. ) Bad news here is the 43.6% hard contact that is making his .327 seem somewhat believable. His xFIP is saying 3.69, SIERA even lower at 3.43 (69.3% LOB rate after all), but I think Porcello can be a 3.40 ERA guy and still keep up the strikeouts with his super good whiff rates this season. Looks like a solid buy-low to me.

Let’s see how every other SP did yesterday:

Matt Shoemaker – 6.0 IP, 0 ER, 3 Hits, 1 BBs, 7 Ks. Oh NOW you show up Shoemaker. Against the Tigers, of course. Next up are the White Sox and you best grab him for that start if he’s out there…then the Rays…Then Marlins…Then Twins…GO GO GO.

Josh Tomlin – 8.0 IP, 1 ER, 6 Hits, 1 BBs, 7 Ks. I hope you made a good wish during your Birthday Party Tomlin. Was it an ice cream cake? Damn right it was an ice cream cake.

Ervin Santana – 7.0 IP, 0 ER, 2 Hits, 5 BBs, 4 Ks. Five walks. Yeah, that doesn’t matter in the scheme of things here but it makes me roll my eyes a bit. He can’t keep getting away with it.

Lance McCullers – 6.0 IP, 0 ER, 4 Hits, 0 BBs, 7 Ks. Holy Wade Boggs’ Mustache this is essentially the best start McCullers has had in my book. Zero walks. Zero walks! He’s also allowing just 23.4% hard contact with just 22.6% soft and obviously the Ks are there. But what’s also there is still the concerns I had prior: health, one good pitch, and questionable control moving forward. Obviously if I believe this heavily McCullers would be undeniably Top 20 if not Top 15. He’s still Top 25 given this upside, I just question how much of it we’ll see.

Eddie Butler – 6.0 IP, 0 ER, 2 Hits, 3 BBs, 5 Ks. I took a lot of questions yesterday about Butler during the Reddit AMA and this start doesn’t change my outlook much. Well, okay I’m a little surprised by the 94.4mph on his heater, but he still profiles as a middling arm that won’t fan many batters and will need a low BABIP to get by. Last night’s 0.0% HR/FB (duh), three walks, and .133 BABIP add up to a 4.49 xFIP so take this with a grain of salt. I still don’t think he’s a good 12 teamer option, but that velocity…ehhhhh fine. If you want to take him as a flier, sure go, ahead. Let’s be honest, with so many injured arms I’m sure everyone has like three blegh pitchers on their staff anyway.

Johnny Cueto – 8.0 IP, 2 ER, 5 Hits, 3 BBs, 6 Ks. Aces gonna ace? Yeah, aces gonna ace.

Clayton Kershaw – 7.0 IP, 2 ER, 7 Hits, 1 BBs, 4 Ks. Aces gonna ace…wait. This is kinda bleghy and that’s not supposed to happen. Um, are you okay Kershaw?

Jesse Hahn – 7.0 IP, 1 ER, 4 Hits, 3 BBs, 3 Ks. The back up Call Boy well outperformed the main one and I should have just stuck with Hahn as the original streamer, but no. Of course not. Anyway, with Cotton to the minors, Hahn will get some more time in the rotation, but I’m sure the three walks and three Ks against the Rangers isn’t instilling the kind of confidence you want in him moving forward. Next up is Seattle and yeah, you don’t want that.

Dylan Bundy – 6.0 IP, 2 ER, 4 Hits, 1 BBs, 8 Ks. Whoa eight Ks from Bundy! Maybe this is him finally being the man he’s supposed to be? Against the Royals, sure. But they host Bar Mitzfah’s for 11-year-olds, if you get my drift.

Joe Biagini – 5.0 IP, 0 ER, 4 Hits, 0 BBs, 3 Ks. Just 68 pitches in this one for Biagini, which is one of my bigger concerns here. That could be a 3.2 inning start if he gets into trouble and doesn’t have a .222 BABIP. Still I do love his 59.3% groundball rate with sub 30% hard contact thus far with no walks and the Mariners are no joke. I don’t think the strikeouts are going to be much writing home about, but if he gives you 4/5 a game with solid ratios, there’s clearly value there. Worth the flier in a 12-teamer as he gets the Braves, Brewers, Reds next.

Mike Foltynewicz – 6.0 IP, 1 ER, 6 Hits, 0 BBs, 4 Ks. And now he gets the Jays, Pirates, Giants, Reds, Phillies, Mets. The bad part here is that I don’t have enough confidence in Folty to believe he can be consistent enough to make a big impact across those outings. I think you kinda have to roll the die here but I don’t like how stressed I’ll be during it.

Andrew Cashner – 6.0 IP, 1 ER, 5 Hits, 1 BBs, 2 Ks. Nope, still Cashing out.

Danny Duffy – 7.0 IP, 2 ER, 8 Hits, 1 BBs, 6 Ks. #DuffyVelocityWatch2017 continues as Duffy had the highest FB velocity of the season yesterday at 94.68. To put that in perspective, that would have been his second lowest mark in 2017 prior to September (when he was terrible). Just saying. It is a good sign though, I’m not confident it will stick around.

Matt Garza – 6.0 IP, 2 ER, 5 Hits, 2 BBs, 4 Ks. That’s a 7.23 K/9, 1.90 BB/9, and a 2.66 ERA over four starts. Like this is going to continue. Don’t trust this, he’ll soon be making owners feel like this.

Scott Feldman – 7.0 IP, 2 ER, 7 Hits, 1 BBs, 2 Ks. Feldman freakin’ Schmeldman. I led with him last time explaining why you shouldn’t buy and he has this super boring but helpful start against the Giants. Blegh. He’s such a TEEs.

Mike Leake – 6.0 IP, 2 ER, 5 Hits, 3 BBs, 5 Ks. Ehhhh I guess it’s good but doesn’t really do anything to change my opinion of him. Yeah, those two ER were from a pair of Wilson Contreras solo shots as he faced the Cubs, so I guess there’s something to that. I’d own him in a 12-teamer, but I’m not getting too attached here.

Jose Urena – 6.0 IP, 2 ER, 6 Hits, 3 BBs, 4 Ks. Urena is no Allen Iverson, he’s not the answer.

Alex Cobb – 6.1 IP, 3 ER, 4 Hits, 3 BBs, 5 Ks. The WHIP is fine, it’s a QS and five Ks are acceptable…? This seems a lot like Cobb though and his upside is completely lacking these days. That Changeup just isn’t the same.

Jhoulys Chacin – 6.1 IP, 3 ER, 7 Hits, 1 BBs, 5 Ks. Chacin will do well when Jhoulyst expect it.

Jordan Montgomery – 6.0 IP, 4 ER, 8 Hits, 1 BBs, 7 Ks. Don’t write off Monty, I think he’s going to be a decent Toby for you all season long.

Patrick Corbin – 6.0 IP, 4 ER, 6 Hits, 2 BBs, 3 Ks. Come on Corbin, I want to believe in you again, but doing this against the Pirates is just not doing it for me. Just like canned laughter. Seriously, why is that still a thing? I think you can safely drop Corbin for now and try another glove on.

Christian Bergman – 5.0 IP, 3 ER, 7 Hits, 1 BBs, 1 Ks. Bergman? Is that really you? I thought they got you. They? You know, the always-winning and cruel man that is Father Time and his henchmen Tick and Tock. But I’m only 29. And so am I but you don’t see me pitching anymore. On the real, it’s an incredibly sad state of affairs for the Mariners right now and five innings of 3 ER ball is kinda okay for them at this point. No wonder Yovani Gallardo is the happiest he’s been in years.

Matt Harvey – 5.0 IP, 5 ER, 7 Hits, 5 BBs, 6 Ks. Let’s see…velocity was down again, he allowed back-to-back HRs in the sixth to add 3 ER and 3 Hits to his night, and there’s little reason to hang on anymore. What a mess.

Tyler Chatwood – 4.1 IP, 5 ER, 6 Hits, 4 BBs, 6 Ks. Chatwood at home against the Dodgers? Yeah, this isn’t the deal we have with him.

Miguel Gonzalez – 5.0 IP, 5 ER, 8 Hits, 4 BBs, 2 Ks. Because I can’t have nice things and Gonzalez can nearly throw a Maddux against the Yankees and allow a first pitch HR to the Padres, I’m taking a major L again today. Freakin’ baseball, man. Streamer Record 16.5-14-5. 

Jordan Zimmermann – 5.1 IP, 4 ER, 10 Hits, 3 BBs, 2 Ks. There is no question that Zimmermann is on the Anti-List. A steady 6.28 ERA with zero upside will do that.

Tyler Glasnow – 2.1 IP, 7 ER, 7 Hits, 2 BBs, 3 Ks. Womp womp. There’s still time to make my bold prediction come true Glasnow, you have two months to figure it out. YOU GOTS THIS. (Not really though, I doubt he does. There’s just so much to fix.)

Today’s Streamer

Mike Clevinger vs. Minnesota Twins Very few options here and I’d prefer not to chase Zack Davies against the Mets. Half point here.

Tomorrow’s Streamer

Dan Straily vs. Atlanta Braves – There’s really no one left. I guess if you’re desperate for strikeouts, Trevor Bauer against the Twins could give you 5-6, but those ratios will take a hit. I’m not starting Straily unless I’m truly desperate and don’t put this one on the board.

Day After Tomorrow’s Streamer

Zack Godley vs. New York Mets – He’s showcasing added velocity this year and the Mets are the Mets.

Game of the Day

Jose Berrios vs. Mike Clevinger This is all about Mike. Ahhhh just kidding, Berrios gets the call and a lot of people are stoked. Should be a fun game to watch on both sides of the ball.

Nick Pollack

Founder of Pitcher List. Creator of CSW, The List, and SP Roundup. Worked with MSG, FanGraphs, CBS Sports, and Washington Post. Former college pitcher, travel coach, pitching coach, and Brandeis alum. Wants every pitcher to be dope.

13 responses to “From Rich To Porcello”

  1. Ken Erdedy says:

    Sorry can you explain the Montgomery post? I realize something is going over my head!

    Also, with Shoe’s upcoming sked, him or Monty?

    • Nick Pollack says:

      I’d take Shoemaker.

      Monty is a Toby – someone you aren’t thrilled to have around but will get the job done. I think he’ll be productive enough ROS to avoid being flat out dropped.

  2. Chucky says:

    Comfortable enough to run 2 start Manea out there, v Bost @ Seat?

    • Nick Pollack says:

      I had Manaea as a questionable in the weekly article, I’d prefer to wait and see. I want to give him a few starts to get back in the groove.

  3. Drop 1 from this list…?
    – C. Kershaw
    – L. Severino
    – C. Martinez
    – M. Fulmer
    – J. Lester
    – L. McCullers
    – A. Sanchez (DL)

    I know i already asked this a week ago, and i know you’ll probably say Sanchez. But double confirming. He slated for tomorrow and I’ll have to make a move on someone to drop. No roster space; 8 teamer h2h.

  4. Harry says:

    How many pitches for Biagini next time around?

  5. Nick, How do you see Karns moving forward with a lot of K’s lately – not on your list yet, but may move up to where? Looking to rank Lynn, Shoemaker, Manea, Wacha, & Karns (ROS). Thanks!

    • Nick Pollack says:

      Manaea, Shoe, Wacha, with Karns a ways behind.

      Amazing K surge from Snell, but he’s not suddenly an elite strikeout arm ROS. I think he’ll be 60s or so come Monday, we still need to see more but worth the flier obviously.

    • Nick Pollack says:

      I completely take that back. Did more digging and really believe in Karns.

      That Knuckle Curve is super legit.

      Manaea, Karns, Shoe, Wacha.

      • Michael M says:

        Hey, thanks for the input! I love your site and all the work you guys do recapping the day’s games. Top 100 is always fun to see the climbers and fallers. Sadly, this year I have more downward arrows than up. : )

        • Nick Pollack says:

          Just how it goes sometimes, we haven’t seen too many constant risers this year either. Hopefully soon!

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