After last year's "Cy Young" season from Rick Porcello, I haven't been expecting the same season from the Red Sox "Ace", but not like this. After last night's 6.0 IP, 3 ER, 9 Hits, 0 BBs, 7 Ks, Porcello has a 4.01 ERA, 1.34 WHIP, but a 9.49 K/9 and 1.64 BB/9. Is this the life Porcello is living now? A PQS (Pity Quality Start, i.e. 3 ER in 6 innings. You can hear the stat lord saying "ugh, fine I guess I'll give you one") and 1.50 WHIP but a great amount of Ks and zero walks? What's super weird is everything kinda checks out that it will...He's holding a crazy good 11.1% whiff rate (with a 13.3% whiff rate on his Four-Seamer! What?! There's also a 21.3% whiff rate on his Slider after sitting around 10-11% for years. ) Bad news here is the 43.6% hard contact that is making his .327 seem somewhat believable. His xFIP is saying 3.69, SIERA even lower at 3.43 (69.3% LOB rate after all), but I think Porcello can be a 3.40 ERA guy and still keep up the strikeouts with his super good whiff rates this season. Looks like a solid buy-low to me.
Let’s see how every other SP did yesterday:
Sorry can you explain the Montgomery post? I realize something is going over my head!
Also, with Shoe’s upcoming sked, him or Monty?
I’d take Shoemaker.
Monty is a Toby – someone you aren’t thrilled to have around but will get the job done. I think he’ll be productive enough ROS to avoid being flat out dropped.
Comfortable enough to run 2 start Manea out there, v Bost @ Seat?
I had Manaea as a questionable in the weekly article, I’d prefer to wait and see. I want to give him a few starts to get back in the groove.
Drop 1 from this list…?
– C. Kershaw
– L. Severino
– C. Martinez
– M. Fulmer
– J. Lester
– L. McCullers
– A. Sanchez (DL)
I know i already asked this a week ago, and i know you’ll probably say Sanchez. But double confirming. He slated for tomorrow and I’ll have to make a move on someone to drop. No roster space; 8 teamer h2h.
Yeah, it’s still Sanchez.
How many pitches for Biagini next time around?
Ha! I’ll say 75-80.
Nick, How do you see Karns moving forward with a lot of K’s lately – not on your list yet, but may move up to where? Looking to rank Lynn, Shoemaker, Manea, Wacha, & Karns (ROS). Thanks!
Manaea, Shoe, Wacha, with Karns a ways behind.
Amazing K surge from Snell, but he’s not suddenly an elite strikeout arm ROS. I think he’ll be 60s or so come Monday, we still need to see more but worth the flier obviously.
I completely take that back. Did more digging and really believe in Karns.
That Knuckle Curve is super legit.
Manaea, Karns, Shoe, Wacha.
Hey, thanks for the input! I love your site and all the work you guys do recapping the day’s games. Top 100 is always fun to see the climbers and fallers. Sadly, this year I have more downward arrows than up. : )
Just how it goes sometimes, we haven’t seen too many constant risers this year either. Hopefully soon!