Gavin Stone is having a breakout season in 2024 for the Dodgers, firing 17 starts over 96.2 innings to a 3.26 ERA through the all-star break.
After a rough cup of coffee in the majors in 2023, where he had a 9.00 ERA/6.64 FIP in 31 innings, Stone has established himself as a staple in a severely injured Dodgers rotation.
Each name highlighted is a starting pitcher that was expected/has already impacted the Dodgers’ rotation at some point this year or in the past. I’d be willing to say if this rotation was healthy, it would be one of the best MLB has seen in recent memory.
Regardless, that hasn’t happened. The injury bug has torn through many teams this year, and the Dodgers were no exception.
Players like Stone are the reason the Dodgers have stayed afloat despite these injuries. Few teams have the depth the Dodgers had, and despite earning a rotation spot early in the year, Stone has succeeded expectations already.
Stone’s Journey to the Rotation
Despite being a top-100 prospect, Gavin Stone generated some concerns with his MLB readiness when he joined the majors in 2023. His changeup, which earned a 70 grade as a prospect, led him through the minors with a 1.48 ERA over three levels in 2022.
Still, in 2023, Stone pitched to a 4.74 ERA in the minors with a 9.00 ERA in a small MLB sample. The concerns had become reality – Stone’s arsenal wasn’t nearly as developed as the Dodgers’ hoped, leading to few strikeouts, tons of home runs, and 13.4 hits allowed per nine innings.
After some trips to the minors, a run in the bullpen, and an offseason of reflection, Stone entered 2024 and improved in nearly every aspect.
One of Stone’s biggest improvements was his command – while it wasn’t a significant problem in 2023, his 8.6% walk rate dropped to 7.0% in 2024. In addition, Stone’s pitches themselves improved, as mistake rate, quality-pitch rate, and average PLV all took significant jumps in 2024.
Stone’s stuff never really jumped off the table, so Stone being able to locate his pitches better has paid off massively. In addition, Stone’s stuff improved a bit in 2024, going from 88 Stuff+ in 2023 to 98 in 2024.
Outside of these improvements, Stone’s newly developed arsenal has been a huge contributor to his success.
Boasting six pitches, Stone’s arsenal went from a reasonable concern in 2023 to a strength in 2024, as his command has improved even more than his pitch shapes.
Compared to his 2023 arsenal, the differences are quite noticeable.
Overall, his average PLV has jumped from 4.74 to 5.06, an impressive accomplishment over a single offseason. Three pitches in particular have made marked improvements; his sinker (SI), changeup (CH), and slider (SL).
Stone’s sinker has been a huge reason the rest of his arsenal has played so well; while averaging 95.2 MPH, it’s been thrown for a strike 73% of the time and allows hard contact only 22% of the time. Stone’s ability to throw his sinker for strikes so frequently allows his other pitches to play out of zone better.
It also allows his four-seam, which has a much different shape, to play up both in zone and out of zone despite its relatively mediocre shape.
Still, Stone’s biggest improvement with the sinker is in his command of it; while its shape was unchanged from 2023, its PLV took a huge jump due to it being ideally located.
Stone’s changeup had a similar improvement, jumping from 4.58 to 4.87. As it was his most-thrown pitch in both years, Stone actually overperformed his expected results in 2023 but has met expectations while improving results in 2024.
The biggest change for his changeup was its velocity, as it gained about two mph on average. By doing so, Stone has generated weaker contact and allowed significantly fewer barrels, yet has seen a far worse CSW%. In Stone’s case, this probably isn’t a bad thing, as it is still inducing weak contact and still has a solid 18.5% swinging-strike rate.
Finally, stone’s slider has probably seen the biggest improvement in 2024, going from a weak fifth offering to his best putaway pitch. After adding three mph, Stone is throwing it in-zone far more often and primarily in ideal pitchers’ counts.
Like his changeup, Stone isn’t getting as many whiffs but is instead getting more called strikes and poor contact.
Stone also added a curveball in 2024 that has generated elite results despite only being thrown around three percent of the time.
Stone’s Impact
As mentioned earlier, Stone’s availability in 2024 has been a huge factor in the Dodgers’ success; as their expected rotation dwindled, Stone’s ability to go out every fifth day has been a pleasant but necessary development.
A January article from MLB.com by Juan Toribio outlined what the Dodger’s rotation would look like after signing Yoshinobu Yamamoto and trading for Tyler Glasnow. Toribio considered Yamamoto, Glasnow, Bobby Miller, and Walker Buehler as either “healthy locks” or “big reinforcements” entering the year.
At this point in the season, all four of these pitchers are injured. Even Toribio’s “spring-training battles” of Stone, Emmet Sheehan, Ryan Yarbrough, and Michael Grove didn’t pan out as expected, as Yarbrough is now pitching out of the bullpen and both Grove and Sheehan are injured.
It’s hard to imagine what the Dodgers rotation would look like without Stone. Aside from Stone and James Paxton, another pleasant surprise for the Dodgers, Glasnow was the only pitcher who has made over 15 starts, yet he was placed on the injured list just a few days ago.
At the moment, the Dodgers rotation is completely in shambles. Stone, Paxton, and Landon Knack are the only players on the active roster who have made more than five starts this year, and while Yarbrough has experience in the rotation, his 5.40 FIP might not induce the best results. Justin Wrobleski has also made a couple of starts with poor results.
Prospect River Ryan was recently called up to fill a spot, but the Dodgers need to get healthy, and fast, if they want to maintain their lead in the NL West. Still, thanks to contributions from players like Stone, the Dodgers are well-positioned to build back up for the playoffs.