Before the 2024 season, I released a series of six articles, one for each division, breaking down three pitchers from each division I believed could have a rebound season in 2024. These articles can be found here:
AL East | AL Central | AL West
NL East | NL Central | NL West
The point of these articles was to find a variety of pitchers; young or old, successful or unproven, even healthy or injured, with the common goal of finding reasons to expect success in the 2024 season.
After a long 2024 season (highlighted by tons of pitcher injuries!), I wanted to revisit these picks and see how they turned out. I graded each pick from “F” to “A+” – if a pitcher threw an incomplete season due to injury, I gave them an “N/A” grade.
AL East
John Means
Grade: N/A
John Means entered 2024 with a lot of questions, centered around his health, stuff, and status as the Orioles entered 2024 with a crowded rotation. Sadly, Means was unable to establish himself in the rotation, making three May starts and leaving after 3 innings in his fourth due to injury.
Means also made 6 ineffective starts in AAA, further leaving his Major League future in question, although injury is likely a big contributor to these worries. A larger sample could see his stuff improve, although we never got the chance in 2024.
There are still tons of question marks for Means, although the Orioles could certainly use his high-potential output over the next few years.
Tanner Houck
Grade: A
Tanner Houck had a massively impressive 2024 campaign, silencing any concerns about his long-term potential in the rotation as he led a heavily injured Red Sox rotation to a respectable 81-81 season.
Houck’s biggest problems came from his insistence on using his fastballs, with his four-seam especially being crushed whenever thrown. While his sinker usage stayed at a reasonable 32%, he stopped throwing his four-seam entirely and bumped up his splitter usage instead, which became a very valuable offering.
This came from an organizational shift by the Red Sox, who discouraged fastball usage across the board. In Houck’s case, this was exactly the change he needed, as he also replaced his slider with a sweeper that generated excellent results (35.2 CSW% and 5.47 PLV) as his primary pitch.
While Houck has some holes in his game, as his 10.6 SwStr% is well below average, his ability to generate ground balls and limit the home run ball makes him a very high-upside starter for the Red Sox.
Carlos Rodón
Grade: B-
2024 was a weird season for Carlos Rodón; 175.0 IP and 16-9 record is great, but his 4.39 FIP and 1.59 HR/9 are far cries from his elite 2.25 FIP and 0.61 HR/9 in 2022.
Still, Rodon was a valuable pitcher for the Yankees in 2024. Not the elite starter he was in the past, but he was healthy and adjusted after a disastrous 2023 season.
There were many steps in the right direction for Rodon as well—his average PLV (5.19), CSW% (29.3), and K/BB% (3.42) were much closer to his 2022 numbers than in 2023, although not at quite the same level.
To be an effective starter, Rodon needs to continue adjusting and adapting his game as he ages—as 2025 will be his age-32 season, he’s now on the wrong side of the aging curve and will likely see his high-octane stuff decline in the next few years.
Still, Rodon introduced an excellent changeup in 2024 that will be hugely important as he ages, and he could potentially see further arsenal upgrades that could help his future outlook for the Yankees.
AL Central
Michael Kopech
Grade: A-
For these numbers, an A- grade is very aggressive for Michael Kopech, although I believe the adjustments he made after a mid-season trade to the Dodgers make it justifiable.
After his July 29th trade to the Dodgers, Kopech was one of if not the most valuable relievers in MLB. Pitching to a 1.13 ERA over 24.0 innings, Kopech had a 1.82 WPA (-1.85 w/ White Sox) and was a key part of an injured Dodgers pitching staff that won a World Series.
In the Dodgers’ five-game set against the Padres in the NLDS, Kopech pitched in 4 games, allowing no runs and striking out 5, contributing to a huge comeback that would be the closest series in their postseason.
Kopech’s improved performance largely came from a move to the bullpen. Although he wasn’t as effective until he joined Mark Prior and the Dodgers, Kopech’s fastball velocity was up over 3 mph while being thrown 78% of the time and still generated great results. Kopech is truly one of a kind and will likely continue seeing success out of the bullpen in the future.
Brady Singer
Grade: B
Brady Singer had a solid 2024 season, tossing a career-high 179.2 innings with a sub-4 FIP and 22.3 K%, up from 18.9 in 2023. Singer also posted a career-best 5.03 average PLV after adding a few pitches to his arsenal and improving his sinker shape.
After these improvements, it’s reasonable to question why Singer is only at a “B.” Largely, this is due to Singer not fixing his biggest problems, and only learning to live with them—this isn’t entirely a bad thing, but something that limits his ceiling.
While Singer’s 5.03 PLV is better than ever before, it’s still in the 24th percentile among starters. His 4.65 xERA, 77.8 LOB%, and 41.7 HardHit% aren’t great indicators of future results, either.
These things likely led to Singer’s exclusion from the Royals’s playoff rotation, facing only a single batter out of the bullpen.
Singer has a bright future and took some steps in the right direction by diversifying his pitch arsenal and improving pitch shapes. Still, Singer has some ways to go before taking another step forward.
Joe Ryan
Grade: B+
Joe Ryan had an impressive 2024 campaign, bouncing back from a strange 2023 season to bolster a formidable three-headed monster at the top of the Twins rotation alongside Pablo Lopez and Bailey Ober.
Ryan developed his arsenal into five above-average pitches, led by his unique four-seam that, while allowing fly balls at an extremely high rate (55.8 FB% and 29.7 average LA), limited hard contact (87.6 average FB EV) and averaged an elite 5.45 PLV.
Ryan’s sweeper may even be his most improved pitch, averaging a 5.62 PLV and 33.5 CSW%, up from 26.5 in 2023.
The only downside to Ryan’s 2024 season was he threw just 135.0 innings in 23 starts, suffering a serious shoulder injury in late August that placed him on the 60-day IL.
Due to his unique release point and high extension, a serious shoulder injury could be a long-term risk. His elite talent and high potential at just 28 years old are very exciting, and I certainly hope his recovery goes well.
AL West
Cristian Javier
Grade: N/A
Cristian Javier had a short 2024 season, throwing 34.2 innings before undergoing Tommy John surgery in early June and missing the rest of the season.
Before his injury, Javier looked similar to 2023 stuff-wise, likely due to his nagging elbow injury. A full recovery could lead Javier to look like his old self in 2025, but that remains to be seen.
Javier’s uniquely dominant four-seam, or “invisiball“, is a great story for baseball, and I hope his elbow surgery can help him rediscover his great stuff.
Andrew Heaney
Grade: C+
Andrew Heaney had a strange 2024 season—while his ERA was mostly unchanged, his FIP took a step forward as his stuff appeared closer to his impressive 2022 campaign.
Still, his results were far from alike—his K% continued to fall, and yet he posted a career-best 5.9 BB% while inducing fewer ground balls and slightly less hard contact.
Heaney also allowed fewer home runs, with his 1.29 HR/9 being his best since 2020 and .410 SLG against being his best since 2015.
Most of this could derived from a lowered four-seam usage, but it’s simply another shift in Heaney’s approach that hasn’t paid off in the same way his bizarre 2022 season with the Dodgers did.
Tyler Anderson
Grade: B+
Tyler Anderson had an encouraging 2024 season, highlighted by his 179.1 IP and 31 starts for an Angels team looking for a veteran presence in their rotation. As the Angels continue to rebuild in 2025, Anderson is well-positioned to further cement his role in the final year of his 3-year, $39 million contract with the Angels.
Like Heaney, Anderson further leaned into his 2023 changes, except they largely paid off for Anderson. His four-seam gained even more iVB, averaging a solid 4.98 PLV and 96 Pitching+ despite averaging just 89 mph.
Anderson’s best pitch, his changeup, improved as well, being thrown lower and in-zone more frequently than in 2023, which led to better batted-ball outcomes and more called strikes, despite its pitch shape and whiffs generated staying relatively the same.
While Anderson did allow too many home runs and walked more batters than you’d like, he took a step forward without reworking his pitching formula and is well-positioned to take another step forward in 2025.