Much has been made of the Red Sox’s prospect pool in the last year and a half or so. Big names that rocket up the top 100 charts across different scouting outlets, with top prospects that stay on top once they get there. Anthony, Mayer, Campbell, and even guys who weren’t that highly rated, like Abreu, have shown up in recent times to claim their stake as part of the Red Sox’s future. They had so many promising talents that they were able to put together a deal with four highly-touted prospects who hadn’t even made the 40-man roster yet to acquire Garrett Crochet. While I’m a big fan of Teel and Montgomery, it’s incredible that they were able to make a move like that and not look any worse for wear on the farm.
With all that in mind, it’s easier to understand how the 13th-ranked prospect on the team, a former 8th-round pick who has quietly worked his way up through the minor league levels over the past two seasons, could get lost in the shuffle. Hunter Dobbins is more than that, though. What he lacks in eye-catching traits, he makes up for with a well-rounded approach to pitching. It’s ironic, he goes against what I usually look for in pitching prospects. Promising attributes and uniqueness usually matter more than a prospect’s performance in MILB, but Dobbins is the opposite. He has enough stuff to be good but not enough to stand out. However, he’s performed well at every level the Red Sox have put him in. Let’s break down what he offers and how he’s found success so far.
The Arsenal
Dobbins leads his pitch mix with a gyro-heavy 4-seamer. He throws it reasonably hard at 95.4 mph, and its movement is strange enough to get by. Straight-as-an-arrow fastballs tend to play reasonably well in general, which is fortunate for Dobbins. He uses this pitch a bit more aggressively than he should, challenging in the zone frequently, but its deception due to its shape has led to both an above-average called strike and chase rate. When he leaves it in bad spots, it gets knocked around because it’s not a bat-missing fastball, but he’s historically had good home run prevention, and through the small sample from his rookie season so far, it seems like hitters struggle to get under his fastball even when they hit it well. There might be a bit of luck involved there, but he seems to have mostly earned the batted-ball performance so far.
Singles and doubles don’t hurt as badly as homers, so I can accept the high line drive rate when it comes with a high ground ball rate with fewer hard-hit fly balls. It might be easier to think of this pitch as a cutter rather than a 4-seamer, given how it performs. It’s been less volatile than a traditional 4-seamer, though it doesn’t have the same whiff potential.
Dobbins’ first slider is likely his best pitch. Thrown at 86.4 mph with 0.3” IVB and -6.6” HB, this pitch has excellent power and depth. If that wasn’t enough, because of Dobbins’ straight fastball shape, these pitches tunnel together exceptionally well. His command of this pitch sometimes flashes plus, as he’s shown some ability to bury it off the glove side corner. But it does sometimes pop out too early and wind up in bad spots, which has gotten him in some trouble this year. When he’s got this pitch working, though, it’s almost unhittable.
While his curveball has the least impressive stuff of any of his pitches, the way it fits into his arsenal makes it a vital inclusion. He doesn’t use either of his sliders against lefties very often, letting the curve do the work in platoon matchups. Do not let the horrendous batted ball luck and mediocre stuff fool you, this is a good pitch. He creates excellent deception for this pitch with a strong spin mirror, it looks like a fastball out of the hand. He just needs to clean up the misses down the middle. Anywhere else would be fine and probably net him more called strikes.
Dobbin’s splitter is pretty good. He throws it with a ton of velocity at 90.7 mph, but being separated from his fastball by 11” vertically and 11.6” horizontally makes up for the lack of velocity separation. He dances around the lower and arm sides of the zone with this pitch, which is exactly what he should be doing. While this pitch might be able to function in a splinker-y role, he uses it against lefties, in which it needs to fill the role of the first half of that portmanteau more than the latter. With that in mind, though, he could use it against righties too in said latter role.
Lastly, Dobbins throws a sweeper that is theoretically just fine, but it has done well so far this year. The shape is nothing to write home about, 13.1” of horizontal at 80.5 mph, it’s functionally a slower, wider version of his main slider. Ordinarily, this wouldn’t be much of a problem; we’ve seen pitchers with two similar breaking balls at different velocities find success before. The issue here is that Dobbins’ sliders run into a blending problem, where they morph into the same pitch at the faster end of the sweeper and the slower end of the slider. It hasn’t burned him yet, but it could become an issue at some point down the line. His locations for the sweeper are interesting, at least. He seems to have some feel for throwing it away from righties, though he rarely zones it. It’s getting enough chases to be worthwhile so far.
How He Can Improve
Dobbins has a solid foundation of pitches to work with. His arsenal builds off of itself very well. Given his 4-seamer’s spin activity, I can’t help but wonder if Dobbins might have success with a sinker to run in on righties. It may not have a great shape in a vacuum, but we’ve seen high-slot sinkers work for other similar pitchers. I would also take a look at that blending problem and see what can be done about it. When he throws his slider harder, it doesn’t lose any shape quality, so maybe the answer is to try to throw that one with more power more consistently to separate it from the sweeper.
Beyond that, I’d just like to see him diversify his arsenal a bit more. He does not need to be throwing his 4-seam 45% of the time. It makes him predictable, and the pitch isn’t good enough to warrant that much usage. While it gives the slider more room to breathe and perform, I’d rather he carry more of the load with that pitch than miss with his fastball. He should also throw his harder slider to lefties more; they’ve been a problem for him thus far. The fastball, curve, and splitter mix has not been cutting it on its own. Even if some of those issues could be mitigated by throwing fewer fastballs and improving curveball command, throwing the slider more in general wouldn’t hurt.
Looking at Dobbins as a whole, it’s understandable why he hasn’t stood out among the other Red Sox prospects. He’s fun to watch, but not exceptionally so. He just goes out and gets the job done. He’s probably never going to dominate lineups and post 30%+ strikeout rates, and that’s ok. He could be getting more than he is now, but even if he doesn’t, I think what he offers is enough to build a career on. That’s all you can really ask out of an overlooked prospect.
