Alright class, simmer down, simmer down. DAVE, GET OFF THE DESK. Yes, I know the hype levels surrounding Jose Berrios have hit a peak after his unreal 7.2 IP, 0 ER, 2 Hits, 1 BBs, 11 Ks start hosting the Rockies in Minnesota yesterday. How could it not? Berrios' breaking ball everything we wanted it to be and his Fastball command was top notch. The guy is clearly locked in and it's hard not to get pumped. I have him around #50 with the other upside young arms - Morton, Triggs, Karns, etc. - and I'm elevating him to around #40 after last night because it would be silly not to. However, we need to keep a level head here. Do I want to be on this ride? Absolutely. Would I be turning down offers with legit upgrades to my team just to hold Berrios? Definitely not. The way I see it, don't buy an underperformer, only sell if it's a tangible improvement right now. If you're buying low elsewhere, you're essentially playing the game of "which is a bigger risk?" and I want the one that performed best lately...if that makes any sense at all.
Let’s see how every other SP did yesterday:
Do you like Perdomo vs ARI?
I wouldn’t say like it, not the worst guy to roll with if I need another start this weekend. Still question his ERA ability even with the solid DIPS numbers and limited hard contact.
Lynn or Karns ROS? Want to pick him up but Lynn is the only guy I would be comfortable dropping.
I’d make that swap.
haha, great line:
“Garrett had a date with the Cubs and it went exactly as you’d expect an evening with a young bear would go. You’re not even touching your wine, is everything oka—WHAT ARE YOU DOING?!”
That’s not 2 straight clunkers from Santana, last week he went 7.0 IP, 0 ER, 2 Hits, 5 BBs, 4 Ks. So that’s 7 clunkers (more than 3 ER) out of his last 46 starts. He still has a 2.80 ERA, 1.12 WHIP, 7.38 K/9 over his last 46 starts.
Also for Lester I think it’s worth noting that he had shut them out through the first 6 innings with only 3 hits and a walk, things didn’t fall apart until the 7th
Ah you’re totally right about Santana. In my head the five walk start melded with the six ER against Boston. I’ll fix the blurb. Still don’t believe he’s a Top 50 arm, but someone that should still be rostered, clearly.
That’s totally fair on Lester, it does make you question if he has that in the tank like we have in previous years though, which does follow the narrative of not having the same IPS we’d come to expect from him.
Yeah Lester was only at 96 pitches when he exited too, I’m not sure how many pitches he threw in the 7th before getting pulled but either way it’s not like he was over 100 after 6.
For Santana yeah I agree the 5 walks is definitely bad, but that’s abnormal for him and luckily was nullified by only having 2 hits and 0 ER. I’ve been irrationally championing Santana because he’s been good for 290+ innings now and the poor guy still isn’t getting any love even when he does well, which is most of the time. I guess because everyone is just waiting for the shoe to drop and stay there.
His ratio of good starts to bad has been very good for almost 2 years now, 85% of his starts (39/46) he’s allowed only 3 ER or less, 72% of the time he’s allowed only 2 ER or less (33/46). And he rarely walks more than 2 batters (he’s walked 2 or less in 32/46 starts, walked 3 in 9/46, and walked 4 or 5 in 5/46). He’s had 8 shutouts and 12 1ER games. Even the best pitchers have a few clunkers along the way, so he’s not going to never have one. He’s had 2 in the last 3 weeks, but those are the first clunkers he’s had since last August (12 starts between clunkers), and before that his last clunker was last June (11 starts between clunkers). He basically throws a clunker every 10-12 starts or so, which is going to happen to anyone.
I get that this all defies everything the advanced stats are saying, but if he’s consistently outperformed them for this long at what point do we just accept that? Granted he’s been even luckier than he usually is this year with the 0.143 BABIP and 90% strand rate, but whatever I love Ervin Santana and I will defend him to the death until he gets more hugs.
Drop TehERAn ADD Urias, Robbie Ray, Waino, Cobb or Perdomo?
Follow up: is griffin worth dropping for any of these ?
12team H2H 3keeper
Drop Griffin and Teheran, add Urias and Ray or Perdomo.