Inside The Parker

In a year of high upside young arms, we often see guys who we don’t recognize having big strikeout games and our ears perk up. I’m s ure many will...

In a year of high upside young arms, we often see guys who we don’t recognize having big strikeout games and our ears perk up. I’m s ure many will see Parker Bridwell’s line of  6.1 IP, 2 ER, 6 Hits, 1 BBs, 8 Ks against the Rays and wonder what the deal is. The deal is that you really don’t want to touch this guy. I can see Bridwell having some good days – his breaking ball (Pitch Info calls it a Slider, I think it’s more of a Curveball) is getting a whiff rate above 20% and zone rate of 50% in its ~50 thrown thus far while his Changeup can carry a ton of fade to make batters frustrated. However his Fastball is straight with questionable command and while it hits the zone a ton, it gets hit pretty hard. Then there’s his Cutter/Slider that is just not good. It hangs up, doesn’t have much bite and really shouldn’t exist. But he can’t set up his proper breaking ball without it and his Four-Seamer gets tatted enough that he needs a pitch like this so it gets thrown over 20% of the time. Yikes. This is just one of those good days where his mistakes didn’t often come back-to-back and he was getting a few extra whiffs on his heater. I’d keep him parked on your waiver wire in all 12-teamers.

Let’s see how every other SP did yesterday:

David Price – 8.0 IP, 0 ER, 7 Hits, 0 BBs, 8 Ks. Now Price is boasting shutout games with 8+ Ks in two of his three starts. I think he’s back ya’ll.

Jose Quintana – 7.0 IP, 0 ER, 3 Hits, 0 BBs, 12 Ks. Quintana earned the Gallows Pole tonight with 20 whiffs, which shouldn’t come as a surprise given how much he dominated against the Orioles. Jeez, save some for your other Cubs starts. Enjoy tonight because it won’t be what happens tomorrow. Well duh, this isn’t softball. Okay fine, it won’t be what happens every time he starts. THANKS.

Tanner Roark – 6.0 IP, 0 ER, 4 Hits, 3 BBs, 5 Ks. Yeaaaah too late to convince me you can do this often Roark. Especially with 3 walks and just five Ks.

CC Sabathia – 6.0 IP, 0 ER, 2 Hits, 5 BBs, 3 Ks. It’s super lame but if you happened to roll with CC – not sure why you would have – you’re a happy man. It’s possible Sabathia is a decent streaming option this second half, but weknow the floor exists and we might want to act like he’s lava.

Trevor Cahill – 6.2 IP, 1 ER, 8 Hits, 1 BBs, 8 Ks. Hey, I can’t complain that Cahill is proving me wrong and keeping that walk rate down. It’s just four walks total in his last four now and I’m sold. I will note though that his IPS is still well below 6.0 after this outing. Here’s to hoping he can keep this up. I know what that’s like. Oh lord, I’m so sorry.

Jaime Garcia – 7.0 IP, 1 ER, 4 Hits, 3 BBs, 7 Ks. I didn’t know Garcia had it in him to give us a K per inning with a 1.00 WHIP and 1 ER. I doubt he does it again all year.

Matt Garza – 5.0 IP, 1 ER, 3 Hits, 3 BBs, 1 Ks. Don’t let his 1 ER fool you, Garza will make you feel like this more often than not. A 0.33 K/BB should be enough of a hint.

Rich Hill – 5.0 IP, 1 ER, 5 Hits, 0 BBs, 9 Ks. Man, Hill really is in his classic groove right now with his Curveball looking like the golden days. Don’t blame Roberts for this one as Hill was nearing 100 pitches after five frames.

Masahiro Tanaka – 7.2 IP, 3 ER, 8 Hits, 0 BBs, 9 Ks. Over his last seven starts, Tanaka is holding a 3.50 ERA, 11.13 K/9, 1.85 BB/9 and 53.6% GB rate. I can’t say that the strikeouts are something I expect to stick around but it’s safe to say Tanaka has matured early than Verlander and the rest. He gets the Mariners, Rays, and Tigers next and while each of those teams bring some concern, I’d start him for all three.

Rick Porcello – 6.0 IP, 1 ER, 9 Hits, 0 BBs, 6 Ks. Of course Porcello is going to have a 1 ER start and still get Singled Out. Duh. This start doesn’t get me back on the Porcello train.

Chris Archer – 6.0 IP, 2 ER, 5 Hits, 5 BBs, 9 Ks. Five walks? Don’t be like that Archer. Please don’t be like that.

Yu Darvish – 6.2 IP, 2 ER, 8 Hits, 1 BBs, 6 Ks. Aces gonna ace, right…? Yeah, I think so. Still want more than 6 Ks against the Royals from Darvish, but this is fine.

Mike Fiers – 7.0 IP, 2 ER, 4 Hits, 0 BBs, 11 Ks. Wait, 11 Ks?! You haven’t done this since 2015! Welp, there goes Peacock staying in the rotation over you when they want to give Collin McHugh a spin. Which is dumb because McHugh is far from better than Peacock, but I wouldn’t be shocked if that’s what we see when Dallas Keuchel returns after.

Jeremy Hellickson – 5.0 IP, 2 ER, 4 Hits, 1 BBs, 6 Ks. Don’t you dare buy into this. Hellickson is not your friend. Hey I ain’t you’re friend buddy. I’M NOT YOUR BUDDY GUY.

Ian Kennedy – 6.2 IP, 2 ER, 5 Hits, 1 BBs, 6 Ks. Solid stuff from Kennedy here as he’s now holding a 2.68 ERA across his last six starts. Problem is that it comes with a FIP north of 4.75 in that time (6.14 today!) and he’s needed a near .200 BABIP to survive. Yeah, that’s not going to stick.

Carlos Martinez – 7.0 IP, 2 ER, 5 Hits, 1 BBs, 5 Ks. Yep, I’ll take this. You want another K or two, I get it, but that ERA/WHIP is tasty and hey, five strikeouts ain’t bad.

Sean Manaea – 7.0 IP, 2 ER, 5 Hits, 3 BBs, 8 Ks.  Now we need to ask ourselves, do we want the higher WHIP or three Ks? That is a very interesting question…

Trevor Williams – 5.2 IP, 2 ER, 10 Hits, 2 BBs, 5 Ks. Williams got Singled Out because he’s good and got unlucky, but because he’s a bad investment.

Chris O’Grady – 5.0 IP, 3 ER, 5 Hits, 2 BBs, 6 Ks. O’Grade Me? Sure, C+.

Trevor Bauer – 0.2 IP, 4 ER, 3 Hits, 3 BBs, 2 Ks. We all know Bauer has a low floor, but not even surviving the first? Yikes.

Marco Estrada – 3.2 IP, 4 ER, 5 Hits, 4 BBs, 5 Ks. Nope, still waiting. I ain’t got all season Estrada.

Kyle Gibson – 6.0 IP, 4 ER, 6 Hits, 4 BBs, 6 Ks. If only you could be like the real KG…

Jeff Hoffman – 6.0 IP, 4 ER, 7 Hits, 1 BBs, 3 Ks. 7 for 91 on whiffs today for a glorious 7.7% whiff rate. Not what we’re hoping for.

Derek Holland – 5.2 IP, 5 ER, 7 Hits, 1 BBs, 3 Ks. The Dutch Invasion is going to be here a while. Might as well start singing Wilhelmus.

Andrew Moore – 3.0 IP, 5 ER, 6 Hits, 0 BBs, 1 Ks. Blegh, I didn’t want to do this stream but I deserve the Loss. I hope you guys lost any faith you had in him by now. Streamer Record 47-33-12.

Zack Godley – 6.0 IP, 6 ER, 8 Hits, 1 BBs, 9 Ks. This is terrible, but at least Godley hung on to survive six innings and give you 9 strikeouts along the way. But yeah, this really just wasn’t Godley’s day. Against the Braves, too. I think he’ll be better against the Nats but that’s a clear case-by-case start that depends on your situation in H2H. A bench in roto leagues.

Ubaldo Jimenez – 3.2 IP, 6 ER, 11 Hits, 1 BBs, 2 Ks. Yep, that’s Ubaldo alright. I wonder, how many starters do I refer to them more often by their first name than their last…CC? Meh, pretty even. I’ll think about it.

Anibal Sanchez – 6.0 IP, 5 ER, 9 Hits, 0 BBs, 3 Ks. For those that have been trusting Anibal…why? AHA! ANIBAL!

Steven Matz – 1.0 IP, 7 ER, 9 Hits, 1 BBs, 2 Ks. I’ve been expressing my concern for Matz given his low whiff rates and boy is this terrible. Like really terrible. His second inning was four hits in a row including a three-run bomb that followed a poor four run first inning. If I were doing The List tomorrow – which I’m not, y’all just have to wait a week – Matz would be taking a hit close to the 50s. No joke. Seeing my concerns come to roost is all the justification I need.

Jeff Samardzija – 6.0 IP, 7 ER, 9 Hits, 0 BBs, 8 Ks. Uggggh. THIS WAS THE PADRES. Samardzija’s scFIP is under 3.00 and yet here he is allowing his third 7 ER game of the year. Don’t make me start calling you Loose Lips again. I’m torn as I really want to say he’s a buy low, but obviously his inconsistent nature suggests that he might never really be that solid arm you want. You know, with this K/BB rate, Samardzija is acting like Michael Pinedabut one I have a little more faith in. And isn’t out for the year.

Homer Bailey – 4.0 IP, 8 ER, 8 Hits, 2 BBs, 5 Ks. This was the Nationals. Yes I believe at some point Bailey will be serviceable. No you don’t need to stash him in your 12-teamer.

Today’s Streamer

Jerad Eickhoff vs. Miami Marlins – The Marlins are a stronger offense than in previous years, though Eickhoff looked great in his return last weekend and this could turn out well for him on Monday.

Tomorrow’s Streamer

Sean Newcomb vs. Chicago Cubs – Once again, there’s little be found on the wire for a good stream, though we might get a better idea when rotations solidify in the next few days. Best shot out there is Newcomb’s K upside against the Cubs as he’s finally pitching against a team not named the Astros or Nationals.

Day After Tomorrow’s Streamer

NONE – There are only three legit choices today and I don’t want any of them. Kevin Gausman against the Rangers is the most plausible, but he’s coming off 13 ER in two starts (albeit a 12/1 K per BB as well). Mike Montgomery has been struggling and I don’t want to start him even if it is the Braves. Then there’s Nick Pivetta, which might be the most logical choice, but I have my fears going against the top-heavy Marlins offense.

Game of the Day

Eduardo Rodriguez vs. Marcus Stroman – I think we’re all curious to see how Edu looks and Stroman is just icing on the cake.

Nick Pollack

Founder of Pitcher List. Creator of CSW, The List, and SP Roundup. Worked with MSG, FanGraphs, CBS Sports, and Washington Post. Former college pitcher, travel coach, pitching coach, and Brandeis alum. Wants every pitcher to be dope.

18 responses to “Inside The Parker”

  1. pleasantly surprised with the early article!

  2. Jimmy Two-Times says:

    Wood, is there a regression coming? Thinking of trading while value is high. Is it worth looking at a known commodity ROS?

    • Jared says:

      I would like to know this also. Also, what is his outlook in a keeper league?

    • Nick Pollack says:

      Some sort of regression should be expected, but not one where I would think you should sell high now.

      There isn’t a question of if he’s outperforming his ability right now. He’s killing it and deservedly so, with deception, excellent command of his Fastball and Changeup, and a good amount of whiffs with his Curveball.

      The question is if A) he can stay healthy and B) how long he can keep it up. I’m in the opinion that he stays Top 20 definitively ROS.

  3. David says:

    Manaea was squeezed really badly, I watched the first few innings and saw at least 6 strikes called balls.

  4. tiwaniuk says:

    Thanks for posting this so early Nick!

    I currently have Edu on my DL and am thinking about dropping Matz to activate him for tonight, thoughts?

    The rest of my pitching staff is: Nelson, Manaea, Duffy, Straily, Pomeranz, Faria, and Verlander.

    • Nick Pollack says:

      It’s between Verlander and Matz. I think Matz is the better drop right now, but Verlander could never turn it around as well.

  5. Dave says:

    Is Darvish really still AGA? He has a WHIP below 1 in just 2 of his last 6 starts, in which time he’s given up 18 ER in 36.1 IP. Sure his Ks are good (still well below his career average) but is that enough to warrant the honor despite average performances vs KC and the Angels? I know you’re all about SwStr% lately so here’s his last 6 starts (in reverse order): 7.2%, 11.8%, 6.8%, 9.9%, 18.2%, 9.1%. With 11% on the season, that’s 2 above average games. But he’s at 12% for his career, which makes this even more startling. All that on top of a 3.73/3.89 FIP/xFIP and I don’t think he deserves the designation at all anymore. He probably deserves to stay in the teens because of his upside though

    • Nick Pollack says:

      Great points!

      I generally don’t remove the AGA label unless there is a drastic drop-off and I’m not 100% convinced it’s hit yet for Darvish, but it certainly can happen in the near future.

      The lack of whiffs lately really is a bad sign,though. I’m curious if this small trend continues.

  6. Manny / DGM says:

    Would you trade Bautista/Kinsler/Castillo for Yelich/Jordan Montgomery?

    • Nick Pollack says:

      It’s close – do you need strikeout upside and/or power? Who takes over at 2B?

      If you have good answers for this, I’d make the swap.

  7. My Seven Rizzos says:

    Nick, weird question here, but any possibility that Gsellman comes back and is in last year’s form? I was forced to take him in a trade, and hoping for the best.


    • Nick Pollack says:

      There is a chance, his upside doesn’t just disappear in half a season, but it’s a low chance.

  8. ragnospam says:

    Luis Castillo or Drew Pom in a keeper?

  9. Jeff T says:

    Hey Nick, should Peacock be dropped outright given the likelihood of losing his rotation spot with Keuchel and McHugh coming back? Salazar is sitting on waivers and could be a nice lotto ticket for the stretch run.

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