We are past the All-Star break, and it’s time for the latter half of the season. There will be plenty of players called up over the next little bit, which should give us more candidates to talk about in this article. Today we have three very different players experiencing very different hot stretches. But are they legit? Let’s take a look.

 

Garrett Mitchell, OF, MIL

 

Garrett Mitchell has been one of the hottest players in the weeks leading up to the All-Star break, and thus, has been a popular waiver add across all of the fantasy platforms. We see this often: a player going on a hot stretch right before the break, and unfortunately, they often cool off. Will Mitchell continue his hot ways, or will he sink back to being just a solid player?

Mitchell has the profile of a three-true-outcomes player. He strikes out a ton, walks at a double-digit rate, and has a lot of power. He hits the ball harder than his Brewers teammates, as that organization is filled with contact-oriented hitters. Despite this, his batting average and on-base percentage are more impressive than his home run totals. He’s gotten on base quite a bit, and he was even rewarded with getting the chance to lead off in a game against the Cardinals. That was short-lived, as he will mostly hit in the middle of the lineup. He has produced against both right-handed and left-handed pitchers, though he’s shown more power against righties. He’s striking out less against lefties, though, albeit in a smaller sample size. Still, the platoon allegations have been seemingly defeated for now.

Mitchell also has pretty impressive speed, which places him in that category of power/speed threats. His sprint speed is in the 98th percentile, and that’s allowed him to collect a few triples and six stolen bases.

Verdict: Possibly Legit. Mitchell doesn’t have an excellent track record, as this season, he’s already set his career high in plate appearances and games played. Still, his underlying numbers are seriously impressive, as there is some boom in that bat. This may be the breakout we’ve been wanting from Mitchell, but we also have to keep in mind that the strikeout issues will persist and could lead to the average coming down.

 

Dylan Cease, SP, TOR

 

By now, we all know that Dylan Cease is one of the biggest-name pitchers in baseball, signed to a $210 million contract. He was named the All-Star starter this past week, and he really lived up to the role, striking out the side. Again, the question isn’t whether he’s good or even an All-Star; it’s whether he’s been good enough to be the All-Star starter.

The book on Cease has been out for a while now. He strikes out more batters than nearly every other starter in the game. He also walks hitters like crazy as well. His stats kind of look like those of the game’s great closers, with video game strikeout numbers and a ballooned walk rate. This leads to high variance in his ERA and WHIP from season-to-season.

Cease has one of the best approaches to right-handed hitters in the game. It’s simple, really: elite fastballs up, elite sliders down and away. These two pitches are among the best in the business. The fastball has elite velocity and vertical movement, while the slider very well could be the best in all of baseball. Unfortunately, his being a two-pitch pitcher has been to his detriment, as he hasn’t had a great approach to left-handed hitters in the past. Now, he’s added a changeup, which will possibly unlock him even more. He had a changeup in the past, but it was a pretty bad one, sometimes coming in at sub-70 mph. The new change is much more like what you’d expect from a pitcher with his fastball velocity, though he struggles to land strikes with it. Either way, it’s a major change (ha) that has improved his approach against lefties, which you can see with the lowest wOBA from southpaw hitters facing Cease of any season in his career. It’s still not perfect, though, with the walk rate of lefties facing him being the highest it’s been in years.

 Verdict: Mostly Legit. Number-wise, it makes sense that he was the starter for the AL. Well, apart from Cam Schlittler, who maybe should’ve gotten the nod initially. Controversy aside, he seems like a good pick to at least get nominated for the AL Cy Young, though we’ve seen in the past that it can fall apart for him quickly. He doesn’t throw enough strikes consistently, which leads to walks increasing his WHIP. The rest of the stats are looking pristine, though, and it’s fair to say this is the best version of Cease in a while.

 

Sonny Gray, SP, BOS

 

While this series often looks at young breakout players or stars jumping into the awards races, Sonny Gray is an established veteran. Yet, he’s having an amazing season that is somewhat going under the radar, so let’s talk about it.

Gray’s ERA has nearly halved this year, dropping from 4.28 in his final season with the Cardinals to 2.54. This happened when going from a pitcher-friendly home park in St. Louis to the always difficult-to-prevent runs in Fenway. Gray has changed up his pitch mix a bit this season, and his improved stats perhaps can be attributed to that. For the first time in his career, his cutter is his most-used pitch, and it’s really been leading the way. He locates it down and away to righties often, and that’s made it difficult to hit. Its strike rate is amazing, and when hitters make contact with it, it rarely gets off the ground. He’s also heavily featuring that sweeper that helped him become a Cy Young finalist with the Twins, and it’s still getting swings and misses.

The one question with Gray is the strikeouts. He was a 30% strikeout arm a couple of seasons ago, but now he’s only hovering above 22%. There’s a bit of a tradeoff, though, as his groundball rate is up and his ideal contact rate is down. He’s changing his profile as a pitcher, and it’s leading to more success.

Verdict: Possibly Legit. I like some of the changes made to his arsenal distribution, and we’re seeing the fruits of that blossoming. However, his strikeout rate, whiff rate, and CSW rate are way down, and those stats tend to correlate with success in other areas. The ideal contact rate is down, though, so hey, it does balance out. I think it’s fair to assume that Gray is probably better than his marks from last season, though he also probably won’t keep his ERA and WHIP as low as they’ve been this season by the end of the year.