Full disclosure, it’s still very early in the season. While performance metrics are becoming more relevant, actionable changes in pitch mixes and plate approaches are key in identifying sustainable breakouts.
Jesús Luzardo, SP, Philadelphia Phillies
Jesús Luzardo has been blazing hot to begin his first year with the Phillies. He has pitched 18 innings through his three starts, giving up just 3 runs with a 25:5 K/BB ratio. And his hot start isn’t for a lack of competition, as Luzardo has faced some strong offensive lineups. Arguably, his best start so far this season came against the Dodgers to the tune of 7 scoreless innings.
After a scuffling 2024 season ended from a back injury, Luzardo was traded to the Phillies in the offseason and quickly introduced a new sweeper into his repertoire. This sweeper grades out pretty well with a strong 5.70 PLV, and Luzardo hasn’t been shy in tossing it ~26% of the time. While he still uses his slider against righties, the sweeper has almost entirely eclipsed it in usage against lefties.
Though this high-usage and well-graded sweeper may make Luzardo seem like a different pitcher, it hasn’t been game-changing. The opposite-handed righties have been able to do plenty of damage against it, fairing much better than they have against his slider historically. And against lefties, while his sweeper has been phenomenal, the slider he was previously featuring had always been a fantastic weapon in its own right. While the sweeper might help diversify his mix and sweeten his other pitches, the “upgrade” seems too marginal to carry Luzardo towards eliteness.
Historically, Luzardo’s hot stretches have coincided far more with his fastball velocity than the quality of his secondaries. Over his 47 starts since the beginning of the 2023 season, Luzardo’s ERA has been a whopping 2.75 higher on starts where he has averaged below a 96.2 mph four-seam fastball velocity. While not the biggest sample size, the 96.2 mph mark is notable as a form of “critical velocity,” carrying the largest difference in his per-game output between anywhere in his velocity band.
So far in 2025, Luzardo has already had a start averaging below that 96.2 mph threshold at a meager 95.7, and his velocity is trending in the wrong direction. He has already thrown far more pitches under his critical velocity than he had at this point in his strong 2023 season, which plants worry that there are worse times ahead.
Verdict: Not Legit
With his sweeper packing a surprisingly underwhelming punch, Luzardo’s performance still heavily relies on his fastball. Since its velocity is looking closer to that of his scuffling 2024 season than his strong 2023 season, it’s difficult to see Luzardo as a markedly improved pitcher. But while he’s unlikely to sustain the sparkling rates and strikeouts he’s flashed so far in 2025, he should still be a positive contributor to fantasy baseball staffs. Just not in the 1.50 ERA/1.00 WHIP range he’s enjoyed so far.
Spencer Torkelson, 1B, Detroit Tigers
Coming into the year with the Gleyber Torres signing and talks of Colt Keith taking over at first base, the 25-year-old Spencer Torkelson found himself once again fighting for his spot on the big league roster. But after a few unfortunate Tigers injuries alongside Torkelson’s outstanding spring showing, he worked his way back into manning first base for Detroit.
Torkelson has picked up right where he left off from spring training, again flashing the incredible power potential he showcased in his 2023 season. But is this year’s Tork more similar to his strong 30-HR 2023 version? Or is he still the 2024 Tork that almost lost his spot?
Looking under the hood, he’s been making much better contact at pitches both inside and outside the zone compared to last year, resulting in a career-best swinging strike rate. But even with this better contact, Torkelson has surprisingly seen a slight uptick in his strikeout rate. This is likely due to his swing decisions, as Torkelson has shown a slightly increased passivity on pitches inside the zone while chasing more pitches outside the zone.
This increased chase rate is likely a result of pitchers avoiding the zone more often against Torkelson, showing an increased respect for the damage he is doing to pitches over the plate. As he’s carried stellar chase rates throughout his career up to this point, this is likely just a mental adjustment he needs to make as pitchers change how they pitch him.
The real differentiator for Torkelson this year has been his batted ball profile. He’s been able to hit the ball at more optimal launch angles with an incredible 50.0% launch-angle sweet spot. With his ever-strong bat speed and much increased propensity for pulling the ball, Torkelson is truly tapping into his power potential with a higher pulled FB rate than even the pulled-fly-ball enthusiast Isaac Paredes. This is dramatic enough of a shift to where it is likely an intentional adjustment to his plate approach. And so far, it’s paying dividends.
Verdict: Legit
Torkelson’s power potential is without question, and he’s been better able to tap into it by pulling the ball more at ideal launch angles. While he still has adjustments to make with his swing decisions, he has certainly played his way into job security, where he can be afforded the time to still make improvements. While he is still likely to run low-ish averages, not even Comerica Park can keep him from knocking homers.
Kristian Campbell, 2B/OF, Boston Red Sox
While Kristian Campbell has been making the most of his chance with the big league club, his breakout didn’t start this year. It started last year as he rocketed through the Red Sox organization, fueled by mechanical adjustments and topping out in the top 10 on MLB’s offseason prospect rankings.
Despite his slow spring, Campbell’s prospect pedigree came from the strong plate discipline and solid contract metrics that led him to a 180 wRC+ across his 115 MiLB games in 2024. And while the transition from minor leagues to the MLB is substantial, Campbell has been able to rely on those same skills to help him ease into the higher level of action.
Campbell features a unique type of contactability without compromising his power potential. With a short 6.8’ swing length, he’s able to generate elite bat acceleration into an above-average bat speed. This has helped him carry a fantastic 35.9% fast swing percentage and 112.2 max EV already this year, all while still leveraging a 90% in-zone contact rate. Though his average EV might be a paltry 87.7 mph, the hard-hit balls are coming.
Many rookies run into familiar issues in their first major-league stint, like blooming ground ball rates or holes against big-league offspeed offerings. But Campbell hasn’t shown these issues, running stable ground ball rates and about league-average whiff rates against secondary pitch types. As he continues settling into the big leagues and making further adjustments, he’ll have a stable foundation to build off.
Verdict: Legit
Locked into the middle of a strong lineup in a very hitter-friendly ballpark, Campbell looks like the real deal by showcasing the well-rounded skills that landed him so highly on prospect rosters. While he might still hit a few speed bumps along the way, his contact skills and ability to hit both-handed pitchers ensure a form of stability against the usual ebbs and flows of a big-league season. And there’s only up from here.
