We’re about 1/8th through the season. We can start to have more confidence in certain stats. They are no longer fluctuating wildly with each game. There may be opportunities in your leagues to pick up players off of waivers with unexpected, but legitimate hot starts. You may also be able to trade advantageuously by looking at underlying numbers that are stabilizing.
Paul Goldschmidt, 1B, New York Yankees
Goldschmidt is a 37-year-old possible future Hall-of-Famer. Prior to 2023, he had a career .295/.391/.527 slash and 144 wRC+. Then, age seemed to have caught him. In 2023-2024, he had a .257/.333/.430 slash and 111 wRC+. His K% increased from 22.2% to 24.9% and, most notably, his ISO dropped from .231 to .174. Since signing with the Yankees prior to the 2025 season, he’s seemingly revived his career with a .361/.407/.458 slash and 152 wRC+. Has he made significant changes?
The first place to look is his Bat Speed. It was 72.1 mph in 2023, 72.5 mph in 2024, and 72.4 mph in 2025. All of these numbers are above average. His Fast Swing Rate has remained roughly league average. We don’t have Bat Tracking data prior to 2023, so it’s possible it used to be even better for Goldschmidt, but declining Bat Speed doesn’t seem to be a problem.
He has opened up his stance more.
Source: Baseball Savant
Source: Baseball Savant
The first image is from 2024 and the second is from this year. In 2023-2024, he had a 3-degree open stance, and this year it is 10 degrees. It’s not a big change, but a more open batting stance is generally thought to produce more balls hit to the opposite field. Goldschmidt’s 34.3% Oppo% would be the highest of his career, 7.3% higher than his career Oppo% average. His current Oppo% is about the 90th percentile. His Intercept Point is also amongst the deepest in the league. He’s letting the ball travel before swinging.
Verdict: Legit (depending on what you’re looking for). Goldschmidt appears to be making a concerted effort to take the ball the other way. This approach is typically positively correlated with a higher batting average. His .439 BABIP is not sustainable, but he has always run fairly high BABIPs, and his xBA is .319-.330, depending on the site. His K% is a career best 18.5%, Swinging Strike% is down to 8.9%, and his Contact% is also a career best 80.4%. Conversely, his approach can reduce power. He has just a 6.0% Barrel Rate, 22.4% Hard Hit%, and .096 ISO, all of which would be career worsts by a large margin. Even his BB% is down to 6.5%. I expect Goldschmidt to be a strong source of AVG, Runs, and RBI, but his power days seem to be well behind him, even in Yankee Stadium.
Gavin Sheets, OF/1B, San Diego Padres
Sheets is a 28-year-old OF/1B in his first season with the Padres. Coming into this year, he had a .230/.295/.385 slash and 89 wRC+ in 1434 PA in 4 seasons with the White Sox. A LHB, Sheets really struggled in 176 PA vs. LHP. He had a 26 wRC+ and 29.5% K%. In 1258 PA vs RHP he had a 98 wRC+ with a 19.6% K%. So far in 2025, he has a .333/.381/.509 slash and 151 wRC+ in 63 PA. What, if anything, is he doing differently?
His Bat Speed is up a full mph to 73.7, 2.2 mph faster than league average. His Fast Swing Rate is also up to 40.8%, 18% higher than average. He’s always had an open stance, but it’s up 4 degrees to 37 degrees; that’s the 10th most open stance in baseball. He’s always been gradually hitting the ball further out in front of the plate.
Source: Baseball Savant
The dot furthest back is 2023, and the green dot is from this season. I assumed this would lead to a higher Pull% and lower Oppo%. However, his Pull% has remained the same, but his Oppo% is 34.9%, 9.6% higher than his career average. That’s 84th percentile. It appears he’s developed an inside-out swing. It may also be a result of opening his stance more.
Despite his success so far, his K% is up to 23.8%. His career K% is 21.0%. Backing this up is an increase in his Swinging Strike% to 10.4%. His Contact% is also down to 77.5%, 2.4% lower than his career average.
Verdict: Not legit. Sheets’ improvement seems to be based on unsustainable stats. LD% takes a very long time to stabilize, and it is currently 100th percentile at 45.2%. His career LD% is 22.9%, and the MLB average is 21.1%. That number is almost certain to drop precipitously. Also, his BABIP is .415 compared to his career BABIP of .268. That kind of abrupt improvement seems unsustainable. There are a few good things to like. The Padres are sheltering him vs. LHP, he has a 98th percentile Ideal Contact Rate and 89th percentile xAVG. San Diego’s home park will hurt his power, but I suspect an improved AVG vs his career and more R and RBI playing in that lineup. He’s available in 92% of Yahoo leagues.
Chris Bassitt, SP, Toronto Blue Jays
Coming into this season, Bassitt had established himself as a reliable, innings-eating starter with a deep arsenal, but not a dominant, high K% guy. In 1,108 IP, he had a 3.59 ERA, 1.23 WHIP, 21.9% K%, and 7.6% BB%. This year he has 23.1 IP, a 0.77 ERA, 1.07 WHIP, 33.3% K%, and 5.4% BB%. Not that WAR means much for SP this early, but he’s near the top of the Pitching leaderboard with a 1.2 WAR, and his 28.0% K-BB% is 6th amongst all qualified SP. The excellent ERA and near career-best WHIP have a lot of noise this early on, so those numbers aren’t that surprising. However, K% stabilizes after about 70 Batters Faced, and Bassitt has 93 BF. Has he done anything to earn this high K%?
His Swinging Strike% is way up to 13.6%. His career SwStr% is 9.2%. The rule of thumb is to double the SwStr% to get an expected K%, so maybe Bassitt hasn’t quite “earned” that 33.3% K%, but the big increase suggests it’s mostly real.
His Stuff+ on individual pitches has remained similar to the last few seasons, and his overall Stuff+ is 97, also consistent. His Location+ is up to 105, compared to his career 101. The PLV of his slider and splitter has improved, but he’s thrown those two pitches a total of 12%.
He throws 7-8 pitches, depending on the classification. He seems to have completely ditched his changeup in favor of throwing 5% more splitters; otherwise, even his pitch usage has remained remarkably similar to previous years.
Verdict: Not Legit. Admittedly, I’m a bit at a loss for words. On the one hand, his overall Swinging Strike% and most of the SwStr% on individual pitches support his increased K%. However, very little about the usage, locations, movement, and velocity of his pitches differs appreciably from previous years. Maybe a smarter analyst could find something to support the big increase in SwStr%, but I cannot. As far as I can tell, he’s just in a rhythm where he is spotting his pitches very well. Therefore, I have to expect that Bassitt will go back to what he’s been: a reliable starter, but nowhere near as dominant as he’s been.
Geraldo Perdomo, SS, Arizona Diamondbacks
Coming into this season, Perdomo was seen as a light-hitting SS/UT that could run a little. Prior to this year, he had 1,420 PA, a .235/.327/.330 slash, 85 wRC+, and a putrid .095 ISO. He did have a strong 17.8% K% and 11.0% BB%. In 99 PA this year, he has a .286/.392/.442 slash, 132 wRC+, and improved .156 ISO. He also has displayed excellent plate discipline with just a 9.1% K% and 16.2% BB%.
His Bat Speed is still poor, but improving. In 2023, it was 65.7 mph; in 2024, 66.9 mph; and this year it is up to 68.8 mph. The MLB average is 71.5 mph. His batting stance is similar to previous years, and he’s letting the ball travel slightly deeper, but not enough to make any real difference.
His batted ball directions are more or less consistent with previous seasons, but he is pulling the ball slightly less and going opposite field a little more.
Verdict: Not Legit. I could go on about individual stats, but I’ll summarize them by saying he is doing most things slightly better. His plate discipline and contact abilities are excellent. He has 91st percentile O-Swing%, 97th percentile Contact%, and 98th percentile SwStr%. However, he has just a 4th percentile Swing%, and a 4th percentile Called Strike%. His success seems to be largely based on slightly improved power, line drive fortune, and wild pitchers. He hasn’t shown any reason for pitchers to avoid the strike zone. Last year, he finished with a 101 wRC+. This year I expect him to finish with maybe a 105 wRC+. That’s certainly useful from a SS who is in line for a lot of PA, but nothing like his current pace. He’s available in 38% of Yahoo leagues.
