Well, we’re basically one whole month into the season. This is the time when we really start to see whether the early-season breakouts are legit. There will be few sub-1.00 ERAs moving forward, and you likely will only see the usual suspects posting a wRC+ over 200, if any players at all.
Chase Dollander, SP, COL
If you check Dollander’s stats page, you may think your eyes are deceiving you. A Rockies pitcher has an ERA that low? It really is early in the season, isn’t it? Yet, what makes this particular Rockies pitcher different is that he pumps 99mph heat. He was also a top prospect, getting snagged ninth overall in the 2023 MLB draft. There is always a major risk that comes with pitchers who play at Coors, due to the propensity of balls to fly out of there, as well as the negative effect that the thin air has on pitch movement.
Dollander has a pretty deep arsenal, throwing six different pitch types. The aforementioned four-seamer is his most used offering, as it is one of the highest-velocity fastballs of any starter and also comes in at a flat attack angle. He has doubled his swinging strike rate on the pitch, and that’s largely because he’s throwing much more competitive pitches with it. His command has improved, hitting the top of the strike zone much more often. He also has a sinker, which is only a little bit slower on average than the four-seamer and generates plenty of ground balls. Dollander has also added a new slider to his arsenal, in the process cutting down the usage of his big looping curveball, which struggled to steal strikes last season.
Verdict: Possibly legit. This is a tough one, as there is a lot to like about Dollander. Unfortunately, the cards are stacked against him. It is very tough to pitch at Coors, but a fastball with a flat angle that can hit 100 might be a recipe for success anywhere. You may want to bench him against tough opponents in home games, but I don’t know. I think we could see the good outings continue on the road. Perhaps he will have some of the most ridiculous home/road splits throughout the year, or maybe he will be the new Kyle Freeland and get some Cy Young votes with a decent success rate for starts at home. It’s a fun time overall; we have a starter in Colorado worth considering.
Otto Lopez, 2B, SS, MIA
Otto Lopez is off to a torrid start, as the Miami utilityman looks to be leveling up from a decent all-around player to a borderline all-star who can help a fantasy lineup.
Lopez has made a career out of being a quantity of contact guy, rarely striking out or whiffing when he swings. He has been able to supplement that with a well-above-average sprint speed and an aggressiveness on the basepaths. He has done an excellent job manufacturing runs, having more as of the time of writing than guys like José Ramírez, Shohei Ohtani and Corbin Carroll. In the past, though, you could expect production that, when weighted, would be below league average. Now, per wRC+, he is hitting 43% better than the average hitter. He has three home runs so far, which would put him on pace for his best home run season. He also has two triples, both of which were fun highlights to rewatch.
Verdict: Too early to say. I like a lot of what we are seeing out of Lopez, but we haven’t seen anything to indicate that he won’t regress apart from the raw exit velocities. Those are an improvement, but we haven’t seen too much of a shift yet in the overall process. This is especially concerning as he really dropped off last year, experiencing a power outage as 11 of his 15 home runs came in the first half. He still is a high floor option though, a guy who can help in any category and can help teams win in real baseball.
Kevin McGonigle, 3B, SS, DET
Talk about an awesome start to a career! One so great that the Tigers saw enough to lock Kevin McGonigle up to an eight-year, $150 million extension. He’s constantly stuffed the stat sheet and has definitely made fantasy managers happy, but will it be sustained?
Rookies are bound to have some bumps in the road, but so far, we haven’t really seen any for McGonigle. His game logs show pretty remarkable consistency thus far, as he has only had five games in which he’s been held hitless. This largely stems from his incredible hit tool, as McGonigle rarely strikes out. His decision-making is incredibly advanced, as he currently has a higher walk rate than strikeout rate. This very well could continue throughout his entire career, as it has been that way at every minor league level. You rarely find players with an eye this good, and he still has plenty of room for improvement despite already looking like a superstar.
One area where McGonigle could take a major step forward is in the power department. He doesn’t have an excellent bat speed, and the average exit velocity is a bit low for now. With that said, our Process+ metric grades him as an above-average power hitter with home run potential, and his excellent launch angle management, combined with his pull tendencies, show that the dingers could be coming.
Verdict: Legit. McGonigle was one of the top prospects in all of baseball for a reason, and thus far, he is proving the scouts right. He is incredibly toolsy and showcases these tools night in and night out. He’s the future of the Tigers and very well could be a staple in first rounds in fantasy drafts in the future. It’s an exciting time for prospect graduations, and McGonigle’s high ceiling and floor might make him the best of the batch.
