Now that we’ve reached the quarter mark of the season, funky breakout campaigns are starting to seem rarer and rarer. With that said, there are a few players well outperforming their projections for the year, and I’ve compiled three more players who have been hot and are looking to have potential career years.
Randy Arozarena, OF, SEA
He may be flashy, but Randy Arozarena this year has been style AND substance.
The Mariners outfielder is off to one of the best starts of his career, especially in terms of getting on base. His on-base percentage has risen dramatically to .389, largely because he is hitting for a much higher average than before. He’s doing this for a Mariners team that seems to always have struggles early getting it going offensively, especially with guys like Cal Raleigh not finding their groove.
It’s interesting to see that Randy hasn’t really been hitting for power, despite his current career-high wRC+. He’s focused more on putting the ball in play and getting on base, though it’s still surprising that he’s on pace for 15 home runs this year. This will likely change with warmer weather, but it is interesting for a player who many view more for his home run potential. The great thing about him getting on base, though, is that he is stealing A LOT of bases. He’s always been aggressive on the basepaths, but with more opportunities, he’s clearly taking advantage.
Verdict: Probably Not Legit. Right now, Randy is a good player, even a great one. My concern is that there aren’t any tangible under-the-hood improvements. His zone contact rate is actually lower than it has been in previous years, and I’m not sure if his much higher than before outside contact rate is sustainable. Something also worth noting is how much better he has been on the road. This is pretty standard for Seattle players, as it is a difficult ballpark to hit in, especially in the earlier months of the season when the weather is still somewhat cold.
Max Muncy, 3B, LAD
Compared to previous years, it feels like the Dodgers are struggling a bit offensively. They’re still second in wRC+ and sixth in runs scored, but with the lofty expectations, it feels like a slump. This is reflected with the team’s star bats, as Freddie Freeman isn’t putting up Freddie Freeman-esque numbers, Shohei Ohtani has been just an above-average hitter, Kyle Tucker hasn’t been anything special, and Mookie Betts has been hurt. The production has come down to some of the depth guys, like Andy Pages and the subject of this blurb: Max Muncy.
Muncy has always been a bit underrated because he’s surrounded by so much talent. The interesting thing about Muncy is that he’s third all-time in Dodgers home run hitting, and it feels very attainable for him to shatter that record. He already is in the double digits for homers this season, outpacing his last couple of years (which were cut short due to injury). Muncy is a bit of a Kyle Schwarber-type hitter, as he also walks a lot but fills the strikeout column (though that number has gone down in recent years). It’s seemingly all-or-nothing with him, which is why it’s surprising to see his batting average in the .270 range. His in-zone contact rate is actually largely in line with how it looked in recent years, but he’s hitting the ball harder than before, which is resulting in more hits. One of the fun aspects about Muncy this season is that good things come in bunches. He had a monster three-home-run game against the Rangers (including a walk-off) and hit another two shots about a week later. He’s a guy who is no stranger to huge performances and huge moments, which is what makes him integral to this Dodgers team trying to threepeat.
Vedict: Legit. Yeah, this is going to be one of Muncy’s better career seasons when all is said and done. His rolling chart shows a meteoric rise in power, which, combined with decent decision-making and some of the best contact ability he’s shown in his career. He also gets that boost playing in a stacked lineup, which will allow him to get a lot of RBIs and runs throughout the season.
Michael Soroka, SP, RP, ARI
Breaking from trying to be neutral for a second: I can’t tell you guys how happy I am to see Michael Soroka looking like Maple Maddux, the kid from Calgary.
We don’t really view the Diamondbacks as much of a pitching factory. They’ve actually been the opposite for the most part, as pitchers like Eduardo Rodriguez, Jordan Montgomery, and Corbin Burnes have come to the desert and haven’t looked like themselves. While Ryne Nelson has been a fun arm with an excellent high-iVB fastball, having him as a staff ace shows that it really isn’t the best rotation.
Enter Soroka, who has had quite the bounceback. His basic numbers aren’t super impressive, but he’s been a rock in the rotation. Yes, his ERA sits at 3.53, but remove one tough start against the Brewers, where they were all over him, and he looks like a borderline ace. At least, from a basic stats standpoint.
One thing that is good to see from Soroka is that he currently has a career high in strikeout rate, eclipsing the marks he had from the days where he would be considered a proper ace in Atlanta. His walk rate is also the lowest it has been since 2019. His WHIP is a bit inflated, even compared to his messy 2025, but again, take away one start and this looks drastically different. It’s great to see Soroka attacking the zone more, as even if his arsenal isn’t the best, he has confidence in it, and excellent location can often make up for weaker stuff.
Verdict: Possibly Legit. He’s a very different pitcher from Andrew Abbott, but I kind of see this potentially as an Abbott-esque breakout (more of a bounceback). The stuff gurus may call for regression any day, but ultimately, when all is said and done, I see him having a good overall season for the DBacks. His arsenal is deep enough and he is executing well.
