We’re about 40% through the season. We can start to have more confidence in certain stats. They are no longer fluctuating wildly with each game. There may be opportunities in your leagues to pick up players off of waivers with unexpected, but legitimate hot starts. You may also be able to trade advantageously by looking at underlying numbers that are stabilizing.
Andrew Abbott, SP, Cincinnati Reds
Andrew Abbott is a 26-year-old LH SP in his 3rd MLB season. Prior to 2025, he had 247.1 IP, a 3.78 ERA, 1.31 WHIP, 22.4% K%, and 9.2% BB%. In 53.1 IP this year he has a 2.18 ERA, 1.06 WHIP, 27.6% K%, and 8.9% BB% (stats as of 6/8/25). We all know ERA is unpredictable, but that WHIP and K% stand out from his previous seasons. Is he doing anything differently to warrant those improved results?
Most notable about the cutter isn’t the .924 wOBA. It’s that there are cutters with worse wOBAs. Anyways, he barely throws it so Abbott is really a 4-pitch guy. He throws his four-seamer nearly half the time and it has been his most effective pitch. PLV and Stuff+ both grade it as below average. Its metrics are all middling, at best, with below-average velocity and extension with average movement. It’s very similar to 2023 and 2024. If anything, it’s slightly worse.
The overall usage of all of his pitches has remained remarkably similar throughout his career. In fact, not much has changed about anything that he does.
Verdict: Maybe possibly legit? On a recent episode of Rates and Barrels Eno Sarris and Trevor May attempted to figure out Abbott’s success. They were not confident in their explanations. If they can’t figure it out, what hope do I have? Their best guess was that his pitches are just weird enough to confuse hitters. But that doesn’t explain his career-best season this year. You’d expect his uniqueness to wear off. The best I can do is take his career averages and give slightly more weight to this year because it’s the most recent. Using that rationale, going forward I’d expect a 3.40 ERA, 1.20 WHIP, 25% K%, and 9% BB%. That’s useful in most leagues.
Jeremy Peña, SS, Houston Astros
In just his 4th MLB season the 27-year-old Jeremy Peña has had quite the up-and-down career. After posting a solid 102 wRC+ in 558 PA in the 2022 regular season he had a spectacular 187 wRC+ that postseason. He followed that up in 2023-2024 with 1,284 PA, a .265/.316/.388 triple slash and 98 wRC+. In 277 PA this year he has a .316/.373/.480 slash and 144 wRC+. That’s good for 20th among qualified hitters. His increased slugging is the primary driver behind his great numbers. It’s 81 points higher than the rest of his career. What’s behind this power surge?
In 2024 Peña’s Power metric was 92 and this year it is 96. Not much difference there. His Bat Speed and Max EV are also comparable. He has increased his Barrel% from 5.4% last year to 7.0% this year. However, I don’t think that’s enough of an improvement to explain his greatly improved power production. Last year his Pull Air% was below average at 15.2% and this year it is up to an above-average 19.2%. He’s also improved his Ideal Attack Angle from a solid 55.5% (league average is 50.9%) to a very good 62.5%.
Verdict: Somewhat Legit. Peña has certainly improved his power metrics, but only marginally so. I think he is due for some regression because of this. He should remain a very solid option at SS, possibly in the midst of a career year, but I simply don’t fully buy his .480 SLG and 144 wRC+.
Brendan Donovan, 2B/SS/OF, St. Louis Cardinals
I’ve always felt like Donovan doesn’t get the respect he deserves. In 1,491 PA coming into this year, he had a .280/.364/.407 slash and 119 wRC+. That’s good for anyone of course and especially someone that offers as much defensive flexibility as Donovan. While he has not been asked to be quite as diverse as in previous seasons, he has had a fantastic season at the plate. In 269 PA he has a .317/.384/.450 slash and 138 wRC+.
His overall Process+ has certainly improved, but what specifically is driving it?
While dropping more recently there was a huge jump in his Power in mid-August last year that carried over into 2025 that is propping up his overall numbers. Let’s see if we can spot anything that happened around mid-August 2024.
Source: FanGraphs
Verdict: Not Legit. Sadly, Donovan’s success has been directly tied to a sudden uptick in Line Drive%. LD% is notoriously noisy. As soon as it started to decline this year so did his overall production. He should remain an excellent UT player with a high AVG and OBP, but he simply does not possess the Bat Speed or power to maintain such a high wRC+. Expect career-norms going forward.
Photos by Icon Sportswire | Adapted by Doug Carlin (@Bdougals on Twitter)
