By now, you all know the drill. I’ve selected three players who are overperforming their projections for the season, and we’re gonna break down whether they will continue this trend or not. I’m sure lots of these picks will make me look either really smart or really silly in a few months.

Ranger Suarez, SP, BOS

Ranger Danger!

I was a little bit skeptical of the Ranger Suarez signing for the Red Sox. Not because he hasn’t been good (quite the opposite), but because he doesn’t really have a long history of health, and he seemed to be losing juice every year on an already below-average fastball. Being so good at command can only get you so far once you start to decline. Just look at the late-career version of command king Kyle Hendricks.

With that said, it’s clear Ranger is not declining at all. He currently has what would be his best ERA in any full season as a starter, as well as his lowest WHIP. He’s been much more unhittable this season, partially because he’s traded a few of those hits for walks. Suarez isn’t really attacking the zone as he used to, as his four-seamer is the only pitch in his arsenal that is getting in the zone at an above 50% clip. In 2025, all three of his fastballs frequently landed in the zone for strikes. Now, he’s relying on chase and is still getting it with the heaters. The concern comes from the offspeed stuff, which is not getting the strikes that it used to.

Verdict: Possibly Legit. Ranger has been really great and has had some games where he’s gotten into a rhythm. He also has some clunkers, but again, it’s all about command. I think these current numbers are pretty feasible, especially if he continues to get more chases and locates around the shadow of the zone. There are some concerns though, such as the decreasing strike rates on the secondaries. He’s up a bit velocity-wise on the heaters, though, so that quells the concern that he’d continue losing some speed on the trio of fastballs.

Ben Brown, SP, RP, CHC

Ben Brown has become the ultimate Heisenberg this season, as HE CAN’T KEEP GETTING AWAY WITH THIS!

This isn’t the first time that Brown has flexed his muscles and looked great. In his debut season in 2024, he had some really promising starts that had him circled by some fantasy managers as a potential high-risk, high-reward stream. The next season was a bit of a disaster. He put up a horrid ERA off the back of a WHIP that was inflated like a hot air balloon. People who swear by xFIP probably thought that he was the unluckiest pitcher in the game in 2025, considering the fact that he somehow had the best mark in the stat for the Cubs among pitchers with 100 innings behind them. This season has been pretty much the exact opposite of last, as he has put up a superhuman 1.74 ERA in 57 innings, a mark that would have many calling for him to be a Cy Young contender. Yet, his BABIP is down quite a bit, and his home run rate (0.16 per 9) is clearly unsustainable. Yet even with luck on his side, you can still wonder if he’s made the changes to catapult him to stardom.

The answer is probably not.

The vicious curveball leads the way for Brown. Some may say it’s more comparable to a slider, but either way, it gets whiffs. However, it’s actually not getting quite as many whiffs as the previous two years, and its strike rate is down. It’s undeniably a good pitch, though, when he can locate it. He does get it high a bit too much, but for the most part, it has been effective. The pair of fastballs are pretty meh, as they don’t have the stuff to be highly whiffable pitches and are located down the pipe way too much (especially the four-seamer). He also has a high-velocity changeup that he uses against lefties, but rarely. It’s not enough of a factor to really be considered when evaluating Brown.

Verdict: Not Legit. I know, I really want to be the bearer of good news, but I just have a hard time believing in this arsenal. It’s too limited. The fastballs aren’t great, and while the curveball/slider thing is awesome, it can’t carry a pitch mix on its own for a starter. He’s probably better than last year, and could be a good streaming option, but he’s no ace or Cy Young contender and will probably see a few outings that will send his ERA and WHIP back down to Earth.

Spencer Horwitz, 1B, PIT

Here’s another player who I’m surprised has gotten away with dominating with very few expectations. This time, though, we have a hitter, Pittsburgh’s Spencer Horwitz.

Horwitz has been surprisingly great since coming to Pittsburgh in a fairly limited role. He was solid in Toronto, too, but he took over as a mainstay at first base in Pittsburgh and hasn’t looked back. Last season, he was mostly given opportunities against righties, sitting often against left-handed pitchers. This year, Horwitz has been given more opportunities against lefties, though he primarily serves as a bat who tees off on righties. He’s also leading off in games against righties for the Pirates, a role that has put him on pace to break his career-high total in runs scored. He’s also on his best pace ever for home runs, which is good to see from a slap-hitter type. The stat that pops off the page with Horwitz is his walk-to-strikeout ratio, as he is one of the few players who gets more free passes than punchouts. He’s great at spoiling pitches and knowing which ones to swing at, which is reflected by his great results.

Verdict: Probably Not Legit. To an extent, though. His lack of power will probably send the wRC+ down, and I don’t see him notching the 20+ home runs he’s on pace to hit. He’s a solid ballplayer, though, and his discipline and contact skills will allow him to keep delivering value. He probably regresses to being a middle-of-the-pack fantasy first baseman and probably a lower half of the rankings leadoff guy.