We’ve reached the end of the first half, and many players have taken a huge step forward over the past month. However, some trends are more sustainable than others, and that’s what we’ll be analyzing in this piece. These three players have been exceptional as of late, but can they keep it up after the All-Star break?
Esmerlyn Valdez, 1B/OF, PIT
Esmerlyn Valdez has been one of the best hitters in baseball through the first 28 games of his career, slashing .308/.371/.713 with 21 runs, 10 home runs, and 27 RBI. The highlights of this hot streak have been a stretch where he homered in four straight games from June 26th to June 29th and a doubleheader on July 11th where he tallied three home runs and eight RBI between the two contests. The 22-year-old has displayed exceptional quality of contact, with a 29.8% barrel rate, 52.6% hard-hit rate, and 92.1 mph average exit velocity that all grade out as elite. At least some regression is obviously guaranteed, as a .713 slugging percentage is not at all sustainable, but even his xSLG of .580 would make him one of the best sluggers in the league.
While that all sounds great, there are some clear flaws in his profile. The biggest is his 36.2% strikeout rate and 37.9% whiff rate, which is typically way too much swing and miss to be effective at the major league level. That explains his much worse .239 xBA, as there has clearly been some very good luck involved. This idea is further reinforced by his BABIP, which sits at an equally unsustainable mark of .404. While the power looks to be mostly legit, some huge regression is likely coming in terms of batting average, and with a strikeout rate north of 35%, his slumps could be long and ugly.
Verdict: Not Legit. While I do think the power is real when he does make contact, he simply doesn’t put the ball in play enough to sustain this elite fantasy production. That’s not to say he is a lock to end up back on the waiver wire, as there is still room for him to remain an effective fantasy asset depending on how his batting average looks moving forward. If it regresses to a similar spot as his .239 xBA, he would still likely be worth rostering by teams in need of home runs, but he won’t be a no-doubt, must-start caliber player anymore. The worry is that if his xBA is still only .239 when he is on the hottest stretch imaginable, what will it look like in a slump? There’s a real chance he could be a .200 hitter moving forward if the strikeout rate doesn’t improve, which is why it’s best to have a cautious approach with the youngster. He’s definitely worth starting until he cools off, but don’t think you hit the lottery with a league-winning talent for the second half of the season.
Sean Burke, SP, CHW
Sean Burke has been on another level recently, allowing two runs or fewer in each of his past five starts. In that span, he’s allowed just six runs, posting a 1.69 ERA and 0.97 WHIP over 32 innings. Equally impressive is his 42 strikeouts and five walks in that span, which works out to a 34.4% strikeout rate and a 4.1% walk rate, which is a far cry from the 23.3% strikeout rate and 8.9% walk rate that he posted in 14 games before this stretch. The 26-year-old has looked like a true ace since June 18th, striking out at least eight batters in four of the five starts.
What’s most encouraging about this breakout is that it didn’t just happen randomly with no reasoning behind it. Burke’s average fastball velocity happened to increase at exactly the same time, consistently sitting just over 96 mph, which is 1.5 mph faster than the 94.5 mph mark that it hovered around for most of this season. That shows a clear cause and effect and what led to this breakout, as the increased velocity has not only made the fastball more effective but has also allowed his other pitches to play off of that speed to get way more whiffs than before.
Verdict: Legit. While I think some regression is coming, as he’s obviously not going to maintain an ERA under 2.00 for the rest of the season, I do believe that this increased velocity has turned him into a must-start pitcher moving forward. That’s not to say I expect ace production, but at worst, Burke is firmly planted in my top-50 starting pitchers for the rest of the year. That’s a huge jump from the waiver-wire fodder he was considered previously, and he certainly has the potential to exceed those expectations and be a top-30 pitcher if he keeps this up. The main concern that still has me cautious to some degree is his longevity throughout the rest of the year. He’s shown the ability to be more effective with increased velocity, but maintaining that velocity for another two and a half months is another matter. Whether he can maintain it or not isn’t something we can predict, so we’ll just have to wait and see.
Troy Melton, SP, DET
Troy Melton has been one of the most consistent and reliable starting pitchers in fantasy since making his season debut on May 24th, as he has allowed more than two earned runs in a start only one time in eight outings. That has led to a sparkling 1.82 ERA and 0.81 WHIP with 41 strikeouts and 11 walks in 49.1 innings pitched. The volume has been there, too, with five of the eight starts being quality starts. While the strikeout totals don’t look all that impressive on paper, he’s actually struck out 9, 7, and 6 batters over his past three starts, totaling 22 in 17.2 innings. Over that span, he’s also only walked two batters.
Just like we previously discussed with Burke, the uptick in strikeouts over his past three outings has coincided precisely with increased velocity. Melton’s four-seam fastball velocity typically sat in the 95-96 mph range, and his cutter averaged 90-91 mph over his first five starts of the season. That changed starting on June 25th, as in the three starts since, his fastball has consistently topped 97 mph with his cutter sitting around 93 mph. The cutter velocity is especially notable, considering it’s over three miles per hour faster than it was in some of his early starts of the year.
Verdict: Legit. Like Burke, his strikeout upside will depend on how well he can maintain this new velocity moving forward. However, unlike Burke, he was great even before he was generating tons of whiffs. It’s also worth mentioning that Melton was returning from an elbow strain in May, which very well could have been the cause of the decrease in velocity, as he already averaged over 97 mph on his fastball last season. That gives me hope that this new velocity is both legit and sustainable, and the 25-year-old should be rostered and started everywhere. It’s encouraging that he managed to be effective even without the strikeouts and velocity, giving him a pretty high floor for someone who was completely off of fantasy radars two months ago.
