As the MLB trade deadline approaches in a couple of weeks, the same is true for the deadline in most of our fantasy leagues that allow trading. This means the window to buy low on someone scuffling or sell high on someone surging will soon be closing. In today’s edition, I dive into one inconsistent but high-upside pitcher that I’d pay a premium for and a surging hitter who is unlikely to keep up his excellent production. Each profiled player will be sorted into one of the following categories: “not legit,” “probably not legit,” “possibly legit,” and “legit.” All stats are through the games of Monday, July 21.
Jesús Luzardo, SP, PHI
Last six starts (since 6/16): 36.2 IP, 4 W, 46 Ks, 1.47 ERA, 0.93 WHIP
2026: 20 GS, 115.1 IP, 9 W, 143 Ks, 3.43 ERA, 1.21 WHIP
Long one of the most maddening pitchers in fantasy, Jesús Luzardo is rolling right now after an uneven first year in Philly. He’s surrendered one earned run or fewer in each of his last five starts and has only given up more than two earned runs once since May 14th. Arbitrary end points are helping me make my case here, as the start right before May 14th, he inexplicably let up five earned runs in three innings to the Rockies at home. Puzzling outings like that are part of the Luzardo experience, but he provides a boatload of strikeouts and wins to make up for it. Along with his fastball velocity (96.5 MPH to 97.1 MPH on the four-seamer and 95.8 MPH to 96.0 MPH on the sinker), Luzardo’s strikeout rate has climbed slightly this year to 29.6%, up a percentage point from last year and close to his career high of 30% in 2022. The swinging strike rate has remained steady at 14.8%, but Luzardo was already elite in that department (91st percentile).
Last year, Luzardo dramatically cut the usage of his slider and developed a hard, relatively short sweeper (86.1 MPH, -9.6″ horizontal break) that he threw 31% of the time to great effect. The pitch posted an elite 40.5% CSW% (94th percentile among sweepers) and .210 xwOBA (78th percentile). This year, he’s gotten rid of his old slider entirely and leaned even more into the sweeper (37.4% usage), which continues to thrive with a 38.1% CSW% and .184 xwOBA. Luzardo has also reduced the usage of his four-seamer in favor of more sinkers. He still throws a fastball about 45% of the time, but about 40% of them are sinkers (17.8% usage). In past years, he only sprinkled in the sinker 5-10% of the time. He’s also reduced the induced vertical break, or increased the “drop,” on the sinker by two inches from last season and six inches from 2024, helping it to generate an insane 72.2% ground ball rate this season. As a result, Luzardo is unsurprisingly posting the best overall GB% of his career, helping to avoid home runs and the big innings that they often produce.
Verdict: Possibly legit. Luzardo is finding a formula that works for him and sticking to it. He’s thrown the sweeper at least 39% of the time in each of his last five starts while also using more sinkers than four-seamers in all but one of them. While some of this is a function of facing more lefty-heavy lineups like the Mets (twice) and Nationals recently, Luzardo has a strong enough arsenal to get by against righties as well. He is somewhat dependent on holding his borderline elite fastball velocity because of his awful extension (5.7 feet, 1st percentile), but he’s been pretty consistent in that regard all season. The Yankees should be a fun test this weekend to see if Luzardo can earn ace status.
Nick Gonzales, 2B/3B/SS, PIT
Last 30 days (since 6/22): 103 PA, .367/.447/.533 (171 wRC+), 17 R, 3 HR, 12 RBI, 0 SB
2026: 391 PA, .309/.368/.404 (115 wRC+), 55 R, 5 HR, 45 RBI, 4 SB
A highly-drafted college bat who whiffed too much in the minors, Gonzales has been an underrated part of Pittsburgh’s unexpected offensive resurgence. The shape of his current offensive production doesn’t at all jibe with his minor league scouting reports or track record, as Gonzales hasn’t struck out much (18.2% strikeout rate) and ranks 5th in the league in batting average. Unlike most other players who hit for a good average, Gonzales doesn’t actually make a lot of contact. He avoids K’ing by swinging a ton and making contact often enough. His current swing rate of 53.1% ranks in the 87th percentile and is actually below his career average of 55.2%. In terms of contact, he is exactly average in overall contact rate (75.5%) and below average in terms of both zone contact (82.9%, 33rd percentile) and swinging strike rate (13%, 36th percentile). This doesn’t result in too many strikeouts because Gonzales doesn’t often let a strike go by; his called strike rate is 11.2%, good for the 96th percentile. Gonzales clearly isn’t up there to spectate.
In terms of the sustainability of this approach, I’m skeptical. It’s worked so far this season, but most of the credit belongs to Gonzales’ .374 BABIP, which is fourth highest among qualified hitters. As a career .328 guy who hits plenty of line drives and fly balls, he might not regress as much as most, but he’s also not making hard enough contact to warrant this continuing. Gonzales is in the bottom quintile in the league in both barrel rate (2.5% in 2026, 4.5% career) and average exit velocity (85.6 MPH in 2026, 87.2 MPH career).
Verdict: Not legit. While Gonzales continues to hit for a good average thanks to his aggressive approach and proclivity to spray line drives to all parts of the field, that is his only plus skill offensively. Given that he’s not on pace to clear either 10 homers or 10 steals this season and has never done so before, a high batting average floor isn’t enough for him to be anything more than a utility or bench bat in 12-team leagues. A productive Pirates offense keeps him relevant in these formats and deeper, but don’t hesitate to jump ship once he cools from a BABIP perspective or if a more exciting option surfaces on the waiver wire.
