As we delve deeper into the season, the regression monster is increasingly rearing its ugly head. That said, regression can be a good thing for those underperforming their skills. As we close in on the trade deadlines, both in real life and in fantasy leagues, it’s important to focus on the true skills of players as opposed to the surface stats they’ve accrued.
Drake Baldwin, C, Atlanta Braves
An injury to veteran Sean Murphy led the Braves to name Drake Baldwin to the Opening Day roster. Once he got his first taste of MLB action, he hasn’t looked back. Batting .279 with an .820 OPS for the scuffling Atlanta team, the 24-year-old Baldwin has worked his way into a near-everyday role in his debut season. This is for good reason, as Baldwin brings a blend of elite contact, good decisions, and strong power potential when he’s swinging the bat.
Possibly Baldwin’s strongest tool, Baldwin has a track record of elite contact rates both in the minors and the majors. After running a respectable 79.5% overall contact rate in AAA, Baldwin has seen even more success in the major leagues, with an 82.7% contact rate so far this season. This comes with well-above-average contact both in and out of the zone. And he hasn’t shown signs of struggles against high fastballs or low breaking/offspeed pitches, giving pitchers few holes in his game to exploit.
Baldwin follows up his elite contact rates with only average swing decisions. He swings about as often as league average, also chasing at league average rates. This is less impactful to Baldwin’s profile compared to other batters, as he whiffs far less often when he does chase. This facet of his game also has room for improvement. Though he has an average 9.2% walk rate so far this season, he ran an 88th percentile 15.6% mark in AAA last year. Running rates above 13% in each of his minor league seasons, he likely has more true talent left in the tank as he settles more into facing big league pitching.
Elite contact rates and middling decisions get so much more mileage when there is power to back it up, and Baldwin has just that. With elite bat speed, Baldwin achieves high exit velocities and hard hit rates. With a max EV already this season of 112.3 mph and a fast swing rate of 59.4%, he can do some real damage when he makes contact, resulting in a .281 xBA and .493 xSLG.
The only thing capping his power output is his high groundball rates (48.9%) and low pulled air percentages (15.9%). But he has been making improvements in his groundball rates through his time in the minors. Considering it is common for players to run groundball rates above their career averages in their first season, it is likely that he can improve on these rates. If he gets the ball in the air more, Baldwin can become something truly special.
Verdict: Legit – Rake Baldwin.. Ahem, Drake Baldwin… brings a balanced mix of skills to the batter’s box without many holes in his game. Playing more often and hitting higher in the order for the Braves, the only thing capping Baldwin’s upside is his launch angles. While already a solid fantasy contributor, there is still plenty more in the tank for Baldwin.
Eury Pérez, SP, Miami Marlins
One of the most exciting young pitchers in the game, Eury Perez, has truly impressed in his return from the Tommy John surgery that he underwent back in early 2024. With 44 innings of both sparkling ratios (3.07 ERA, 0.95 WHIP) and strikeout upside (26.3 K%), it seems Pérez is truly settling into his ace potential.
This hasn’t come out of nowhere. Pérez has an insane prospect pedigree, coming in at 3rd overall on Fangraph’s 2023 prospects board. He was true to this ranking in his debut 2023 season, pitching to a 3.15 ERA and 28.9 K% in his 19-game taste of the major leagues. Though he had TJ in between then and now, it looks as though Pérez hasn’t missed a beat in his lengthy absence.
Pérez makes his mark with elite stuff. All three of his most thrown pitches in his four-seamer, slider, and curveball all clock in at or above a 118 Stuff+. All three of these pitches are even up from their 2023 versions, which is mildly surprising as Pérez settles into post-TJ life, where stuff can be slow to fully return. And it’s possible this sees some small fade as the season wears on him, but for now at least, Pérez is bathing in well-deserved chases, whiffs, and strikeouts.
Though he’s been throwing gas, it doesn’t come with the best command. A 92 Location+ leaves some meat on the bone, but it hasn’t held Pérez back as he holds a respectable 8.6% walk rate. This is likely due to him throwing in the zone at a 51.3% rate, comparable to the league average of 50.7%. And though he might throw middle-middle just a tick above average, his zippy pitches get whiffs in the zone almost 4 percentage points more often than average.
Verdict: Legit – Eury Pérez, finally built up after his injury, somehow seems to be the best version of himself. He has put up a deservedly strong performance so far this year, and as long as he’s taking the bump, he should be providing strong value to those patient enough to have rostered him.
Willy Adames, SS, San Francisco Giants
After signing a 7-year deal with the Giants in the offseason, Willy Adames has brought his elite locker room presence to his new San Francisco squad. After getting off to a slow start at the plate, he has recently been flashing the strong bat that likely played a bigger factor in his franchise-record deal.
With 6 home runs and a 1.078 OPS in the month of July, Adames has started looking more like the version of himself that hit 32 home runs last season. This is a welcome change after Adames entered June with a paltry .620 OPS, having earned a demotion to the latter half of the batting order. But has anything changed with Adames that warrants this improved production?
One of the most glaring differences between his 2024 and 2025 seasons has been a substantial 1.6 mph decrease in his average bat speed. This would be a cause for concern, but it hasn’t played much of a factor in Adames’s performance. He carries a higher average exit velocity and even the highest barrel rate of his already-high-barrel career at 12.9%. With an identical .461 xSLG so far this season compared to a .461 xSLG last year, it seems the power is still in the tank for Adames.
While these rates are a culmination of the full season’s work so far for Adames, it’s no surprise that his hot July just happens to coincide with his surging rolling exit velocity data. He’s hitting the ball harder and getting results accordingly.
The biggest difference that has left fantasy managers wanting more has been in the stolen base column. After the Brewers let him loose last season to collect 21 steals in 25 attempts, he has only taken 6 chances with the Giants. Though his sprint speed hasn’t fallen off, this is more an indication that his 21 steal season was a blip in a contract year as opposed to newfound potential. It’s unlikely he returns much stolen base value at the shortstop position; instead, he seems to be on track for the single-digit totals he has carried every other year of his MLB career.
Verdict: Legit – Willy Adames has once again found the power in his swing. With his signature high barrel rates carrying through, it seems his early-season power struggles are a thing of the past. That said, don’t rely on him for much speed throughout the rest of the season.
