It’s the Fourth of July weekend for Major League Baseball, and it was also Canada Day earlier this week. Hope everybody has stayed safe this week, and will continue to do so while enjoying the weekend’s festivities! I also hope that everybody is having a good fantasy week. I’ve definitely benefited lately from having Junior Caminero, Pete Crow-Armstrong, and Jacob Misiorowski, though I do worry that the depth of the rest of my squad isn’t enough. Maybe I should consider bringing one of these guys in…
Isaac Paredes, 1B, 3B, HOU
We’ve all seen the Isaac Paredes home run spray chart, and it’s beautiful. In fact, I’ll show you the most recently updated version of it.
Paredes isn’t just an extreme pull hitter; he’s THE extreme pull hitter. His pulled flyball rate is a whopping 34.4%, this year, which is actually a step back from when the mark was above 38% in 2024. If you look at his exit velocity numbers, they really aren’t that great. In fact, they’re some of the lowest in baseball. His bat speed is incredibly slow, as his 67mph average swing speed is in the third percentile in the Majors. Yet, he still hits home runs due to his ability to pull the ball in the air (and the little secret ingredient that is the Crawford Boxes in Houston).
Paredes might not initially seem like a strong candidate for Is It Legit?, as his numbers are in line with what you’d usually expect from him. However, what has looked really impressive with Paredes is how most of his production came in the month of June. He had a 144 wRC+ in the month, becoming one of the hottest names on waiver wires. He’s hitting .250/.345/.418 on the season with 11 home runs so far, and those very much look like Paredes numbers. His tendency to hit infield fly balls greatly hurts his batting average consistently, but his discipline also makes it so the mark never dips too low. He’s also very slow on the basepaths, so he offers very little in terms of stolen bases.
Many thought that Paredes would be traded in the off-season, but he bought some time with the injury to Carlos Correa, which is great because Daikan Park is an excellent place for his skill set.
Verdict: Somewhat Legit. Is he going to be a 144 wRC+ player for the rest of the season? Probably not, that’s a high mark, and he certainly doesn’t hit as well at road ballparks with far back left fields. However, it’s fair to think he will probably be better than he was in the stretch from March to May. While exit velocities, barrel rate, and bat speed can often be used to analyze a player to see if they are going to maintain production or not (we do it all the time), Paredes is such an obvious outlier with his crazy pulled flyball rate that I suggest you throw those stats out somewhat.
A.J. Ewing, NYM
It’s not all doom and gloom in Mets-land. They have some real excitement with their up-and-coming talents. While Carson Benge has gotten plenty of press as the higher-ranked prospect, there is plenty to like with A.J. Ewing as well.
The 21-year-old made a major first impression in his MLB debut, a game in which he tripled and picked up a couple of walks, two RBIs, and a stolen base. It was a do-it-all kind of day, which served as a great introduction to Ewing as a player. He has solid discipline, as seen with the walks and a great chase rate. He has some okay pop, which we’ve seen with his four home runs thus far. He’s hitting .271/.356/.406 with a 115 wRC+, which are great marks that seem fairly sustainable for a recently called-up young player.
An aspect of Ewing that makes him stand out amongst a sea of productive youngsters is his speed. He has serious jets. He’s stolen eight bases so far, and this pace seems to be the minimum for a guy with 98th-percentile sprint speed.
Verdict: Possibly Legit. There’s a lot to like about Ewing so far. He’s maybe more in the solid, not spectacular category of players, but he’s performing well for a team that could really use a boost from anywhere. It’ll be exciting to see him get on base even more in the future, as he can be a real menace on the basepaths with his raw speed, and he has the on-base skills to be a threat often for his squad.
Joey Cantillo, SP, CLE
Joey Cantillo has been one of, if not the hottest name in the fantasy baseball pitching waiver wire. After an awful outing against the Texas Rangers, Cantillo bounced back with three excellent outings, including an 8-inning one-run game in which he struck out nine. His most recent start was pretty weak. Many are spending their FAAB money to bring him into the fold, but is he worth it?
There are a couple of concerns that people have with Cantillo. The first is his fastball. In terms of velocity, it’s pretty weak, sitting around 90mph. Now, he is able to make up for this with extension (7+ feet!), but its dead-zoney shape makes it somewhat easy to hit. Luckily, Cantillo has done plenty to quell this in recent weeks, seeing a major bump in velocity (up to around 93) and even extension (7.6 feet). It’s made a forgettable pitch one that can be a challenge for hitters. The other issue is that he walks quite a few batters. This hasn’t necessarily gone away either, as he routinely has double-digit walk percentages in his games. The strikeout rate has risen, however, which has led to him being helpful in the K category. Cantillo has some pretty solid secondary pitches that get whiffs and play off his fastball well. He has plenty of the traits that the great fastball/changeup lefties have. His curveball might be his best secondary, though, and its spike in usage has led to some great results. It gets more swinging strikes than most curves, and it grades out incredibly well by our PLV stat.
Verdict: Too Early To Tell. But hey, there have been some improvements. Unfortunately, the strike-throwing problems can rear their ugly head as we saw in the last outing. Treat him like a Taj Bradley-esque player. The rewards are plentiful, but there is still risk in starting him.
