We’re about 75% through the season. We’ll be looking for players who have been hot recently and if these recent stretches are the results of real changes or just a hot streak that will decline at any moment.
Trevor Rogers, SP, Baltimore Orioles
Many thought the Orioles were crazy for sending prospects Kyle Stowers and Connor Norby to the Marlins in exchange for Trevor Rogers at the 2024 Trade Deadline. Stowers and Norby were both well-regarded prospects and Rogers only had one good season. In 2021, he threw 133 IP, had a 2.64 ERA, 1.15 WHIP, 28.5% K%, and 8.4% BB%. In 249.1 IP after that season, he had a 5.09 ERA, 1.52 WHIP, 19.9% K%, and 9.6% BB%.
Rogers started off this season hurt, so he didn’t make his season debut until May 24. However, in 69.1 IP he has a 1.43 ERA, 0.81 WHIP, 22.9% K%, and 5.7% BB%. Stowers has been great this year, but that is not the point of this discussion. Has Rogers rediscovered his 2021 form? Has he found a different way to be successful? Is this just a pitcher in a rhythm and it won’t last?
Other than throwing a bit harder than he has the past few seasons, nothing stands out to me regarding this pitch mix and velocity chart. He has introduced a sweeper this year. It has 93rd percentile Zone%, 83rd percentile SwStr%, and 90th percentile ICR. That’s a great combination. However, he’s thrown it just 5.7% of the time. It can be difficult to measure how the introduction of a new pitch affects how the rest of an arsenal plays, but it seems unlikely Rogers’ sweeper has played a large role in his success.
Source: FanGraphs
Above is the Stuff+ breakdown of his pitches throughout his career. Again, there is nothing that seems to support his breakout this year. He has good Location+, but that’s always been there for him.
PLV sees no significant changes either.
Verdict: Not Legit. Rogers has a .212 BABIP (98th percentile), 5.3 Hits/9 (99th percentile), 4.7% HR/FB% (100th percentile), 84.9% LOB% (98th percentile), and -15 Hit Luck (100th percentile). He has done a fine job limiting walks and maybe he’s figured out how to limit damaging contact. However, there is no other way to put it. He’s been getting very lucky. I think it is highly unlikely his success will continue the remainder of the season. If your league’s trade deadline has not passed yet, I urge you to sell high immediately.
Cade Horton, SP, Chicago Cubs
Coming into this year FanGraphs rated Cade Horton as the Cubs’ 3rd best prospect and 58th overall. They gave him a 50 Future Value, 45/45 Fastball, 60/60 Slider, 50/50 Curveball, 50/60 Changeup, and 40/50 Command. He was the 7th overall pick in the 2022 draft and turns 24 on August 20.
So far in his rookie season he has 85.0 IP, a 3.07 ERA, 1.18 WHIP, 19.3% K%, and 7.8% BB%. Not bad at all, but since July 20 he has 28.1 IP, a 0.32 ERA, 0.71 WHIP, 23.8% K%, and 8.8% BB%.
He throws his four-seamer more than 80% of qualified SP.
It’s metrics are middling, but it has served him well. He throws it in the zone 60% and has a 29.3% CSW% (69th percentile), but it also generates a ton of groundballs. Its 49.2% GB% is 92%. He locates it more like a traditional sinker also with a 35.0% loLoc% (95th percentile). Not a bad idea given the Cubs’ defense.
Here’s his sweepers’ metrics:
Nothing too impressive, but he does a great job locating it to RHB.
This consistent locating has led to a 41.6% O-Swing% (93rd percentile) and 21.9% SwStr% (92nd percentile). Versus RHB he throws it 42.2% of the time. The sweeper and his four-seamer comprise 86.5% of his pitches versus RHB. However, he throws the sweeper just 3.6% versus LHB so he needs something to combat them. This is where his changeup and curveball come into play.
He rarely uses these two pitches versus RHB, but against LHB they have a combined 42.2% usage. He does a great job locating changeups to Lefties.
This has led to a 26.9% SwStr% (97th percentile) and 62.5% GB% against LHB.
Again, he knows how to locate his curveball.
Its results haven’t been quite as good, but still above average.
Verdict: Mostly Legit. Horton’s recent hot stretch won’t continue and he doesn’t have dominant stuff. However, he has decent stuff, locates it well, has weapons for both lefties and righties, and knows how to use them. As a prospect he was expected to be a mid-rotation piece. I think that’s accurate, but given his apparent maturity I think he might top out as a #2 type SP.
Isaac Collins, OF, Milwaukee Brewers
Seemingly, everything is going right for the Brewers this season. Add Isaac Collins to the list. He got 19 PA over 11 games in his first taste of MLB in 2024, so we’ll ignore those numbers. In 331 PA this year, he has a .288/.384/.448 slash, 22.1% K%, 12.1% BB%, and 137 wRC+. He is 28 years old and was not a highly thought-of prospect. FanGraphs rated him the Brewers’ 38th prospect and gave him a 35+ FV, 50/50 Hit, 40/40 Game Power, 45/45 Raw Power, and 50/50 Speed tools. He was generally above average in the minors, but considering his age, that’s not impressive.
In 249 PA since May 20, he has a .306/.405/.488 slash, 20.9% K%, 12.9% BB%, and 153 wRC+. That wRC+ is 14th best in baseball over that period. How real is this?
Most of his numbers are surprisingly similar to what he posted throughout his minor league career. He hasn’t seemed fazed at all by the improved pitching. However, his underlying numbers paint a different picture.
Process+ is basically an xwRC+ and it is average. His 72.7 mph Bat Speed is slightly above average, his 5.5% Barrel% is below average, and his xwOBA is 37 points lower than his wOBA, using Baseball Savant. He also has a .361 BABIP.
Source: Baseball Savant
Verdict: Not Legit. Collins appears to be a good defender who knows how to pick his spots on the bases. He has 13 SB and ran a fair amount in the minors. He’s also not a bad hitter. Because of these reasons, he should continue to get steady playing time. However, I don’t see him continuing at anything close to this pace. I’d expect around a 100 wRC+ going forward, with a fair amount of SB.
Photos by Icon Sportswire | Adapted by Doug Carlin (@Bdougals on Twitter)
