The 2024 regular season is 75% over. While some of your league mates may be faltering, now is the time to stay focused and take advantage of that. Here are some players who’ve been hot that you can acquire via waivers or trade before your league trade deadline.
Ryne Nelson, SP, Arizona Diamondbacks
I should predicate the following with the warning that this is all null if Nelson loses his spot in the Diamondback’s rotation. As of this writing, it is unclear if he will be moved to their bullpen.
Ryne Nelson’s overall numbers do not look good. In 124.0 IP he has a 4.35 ERA, 1.29 WHIP, 19.3% K%, and 5.5% BB%. However, since July 2 in 8 starts and 56.0 IP he has a 2.73 ERA, .95 WHIP, 25.5% K%, and 5.1% BB%. The K% is the most astounding as in his previous 219.2 IP he had just a 15.5% K%.
The usual place to start is to see if he’s had any pitch mix changed around this July 2nd date.
Source:FanGraphs
Around that date he started throwing his four-seamer 6% more at the expense of his cutter. That’s not a huge change, but it’s not nothing either. You’d expect that he his cutter doesn’t not generate many whiffs while his four-seamer does. That’s somewhat true. His four-seamer does have 17.3″ iVB (86th percentile) and is respectable in other areas.
However, it has just a 10.7% SwStr% (57th percentile). It’s 29.9% CSW% is 74th percentile and it has a 93rd percentile GB%, but it doesn’t really explain the increased K%.
Using his cutter less has been addition by subtraction. It has just a 8.0% SwStr% (25th percentile) and 19.4% CSW% (14th percentile). It also generates a lot of groundballs but isn’t as good of a whiff pitch as the four-seamer.
Nelson has been increasingly better at getting ahead in the count and hitters have been a bit slow in reacting.
Source: FanGraphs
His F-Strike% has climbed throughout his career and is now 69.0% (91st percentile), but Swing% has remained relatively flat. I suspect that he uses his good four-seamer to get ahead in the count and this allows him to use his 5-pitch repertoire to keep hitters off-balance.
Verdict: Somewhat legit. The increase K% makes little sense to me, and I suspect it will drop back down to 18-19%.
Source: FanGraphs
The rule of thumb is to double the SwStr% to get the K%. Nelson will continue to be a good control guy that knows how to limit damage on contact. This means he will have a high floor, but his low SwStr% will keep his ceiling low.
Tyler Fitzgerald, SS, San Francisco Giants
Since July 7, Fitzgerald has had the 5th highest WAR, surrounded by names like Witt Jr., Judge, Soto, Lindor, and Guerrero Jr. Not bad for someone who was given a 35+ Future Value by FanGraphs. He was the 116th overall pick by the Giants in 2019 and was largely overlooked by most prospect sites. Coming into this year he was just the Giants 26th prospect by FanGraphs. They gave him a 30/35 Hit, 40/40 Game Power, 45/45 Raw Power, and 55/55 Speed. In 122 PA since July 7 he has a .336/.393/.773 slash and an astounding .436 ISO and 217 wRC+. Those numbers certainly don’t align with his expectations as a prospect.
On the year he has a 10.9% Brl% (79th percentile), 46.2% ICR (95th percentile), and .376 xwOBA (94th percentile). However, he has just a 22.2% Hard Contact%, below-average Bat Speed, below-average Max EV, and 11th percentile Z-Cont%. Confusing isn’t it?
The above chart shows that over the last month he’s made poor contact, decent decisions, and good power. On the year he’s had a 47.3% Sweet Spot%. That’s 100th percentile. He also pulls the ball a lot and hits a lot of balls in the air. Fitzgerald has had a little of Isaac Paredes in him.
Verdict: Not legit. I don’t think this is sustainable. He’s been on a hot streak the last month where everything he hits has been at the perfect launch angle. Since July 7 he has an absurd 36.1% HR/FB% and .358 BABIP. His 99th percentile Sprint Speed certainly helps inflate BABIP, but not so much with his 7th percentile GB%. Most trade deadlines have passed, but if you roster him, be prepared to drop him at the first sign of decline.
Zach Neto, SS, Los Angeles Angels
Neto was the 66th overall prospect according to FanGraphs prior to graduating in 2023. They gave him a 50 FV, 50/55 Hit, 40/50 Game Power, 50/50 Raw Power, and 55/55 Speed. In his first season last year, he posted an 89 wRC+ in 329 PA. Respectable for a 22-year-old rookie. This year he’s boosted it to a 119 wRC+ in 454 PA, but since late April he’s been especially good. His 136 wRC+ has been 20th best over that period.
K%-BB% is a great place to start, and his has shown a convergence of the two, which is great.
Source: FanGraphs
Source: Baseball Savant
Not much stands out on his Statcast sliders though. In fact, most are below average.
Pitcher List’s Process+ is a type of xwRC+ and it looks good for Neto.
Verdict: Mostly legit. I expected this to be a slam dunk legit, but I’m not blown away by the underlying numbers. He seems to be someone who is decent at everything and is steadily improving. I was surprised to see that he is available in 26% of Yahoo leagues. You could do a lot worse at SS for the stretch run than Neto.
Featured image by Doug Carlin (@bdougals on Twitter)