The regular season is just about over. I could look at guys through the lens of a dynasty/keeper league, but I’ll focus on a couple of players you might be able to pick up to help you finish strong in your fantasy seasons.
Parker Meadows, CF, Detroit Tigers
From the start of the season to May 6 Parker Meadows had 85 PA, .096/.224/.219 triple slash, and 33 wRC+. He was justifiably sent down to the minors. He was recalled on July 5 but injured his hamstring after just three games. He returned on August 3. Since then he has had 150 PA, .297/.342/.536 triple slash, and 145 wRC+.
When someone struggles so mightily, there’s likely more than one thing to blame, but he did have a 38% K%. No one can have success striking out so much. In 237 PA in AAA, he brought that way down to 19.0%. Since being brought back up in early August he has a 19.3% K%.
So it’s obvious he is a much better player than his numbers early on suggest, but are his numbers the last 35 games really who he is?
In 145 PA last year he had a .232/.331/.368 slash, 25.5% K%, 11.7% BB%, and 95 wRC+. Those are respectable numbers for someone so early in their career. FanGraphs rated him as the Tigers’ 6th best prospect last year with a 40/40 Hit, 40/50 Game Power, 50/55 Raw Power, 60/60 Speed, and 45 Future Value. That’s a below-average MLB player. He posted OK numbers throughout the minors, but nothing special. However, he was usually underage for his level and was struggling to get command of his 6’5” 205 lb athletic frame. Additionally, he changed his swing going into the 2022 season and that helped him cut his K% to 18.4% and get his BB% up to 10.6%. He had a 122 wRC+ that year in AA.
Verdict: Legit. This seems like a classic case of a later developer learning how to control his talent, size, and athleticism. His swing change prior to 2022 seems to have allowed him to reach his potential. Aside from his brief hiccup at the start of this season nearly all of his numbers have been on an upward trajectory since the swing change.
2023
2024
It looks like he is a legitimate speed/power combination that also provides a good AVG and doesn’t strike out a ton. I fully expect Meadows to continue to be an above-average all-around player, for the rest of 2024 and onwards. He is rostered in just 21% of Yahoo leagues.
Otto Lopez, 2B, Miami Marlins
Otto Lopez is 25 years old and was given a 55/60 Hit, 20/30 Game Power, 30/30 Raw Power, 60/60 Speed, and 40 Future Value by FanGraphs. He had a total of 11 MLB PAs in 2021-2022 for the Blue Jays so we’ll ignore those. He spent all of 2023 in AAA for them before briefly moving to the Giants’ AAA club at the start of 2024. He was then picked up by the Marlins and made his season debut with their big league club on April 15. By August 6 he compiled 235 PA, a .232/.263/.309 slash, and 57 wRC+. He also had 10 SB, but just 3 HR.
Since August 6 he has 155 PA, .296/.355/.437 slash, 120 wRC+, 2 HR, and 7 SB. He’s been playing every day so the Marlins are giving him his chance.
Is he another guy who was underrated coming through the minors?
Making contact was never an issue for Lopez. His K% has usually been in the mid-teens his entire professional career. Making hard contact, especially in the air, has always been an issue. His ISOs have usually been in the low-.100s and his GB% have been about 10% higher than the league average. He’s seemingly made a conscious effort to take advantage of his above-average speed. So far in his MLB career, his problem has been that it’s just above average speed. A 60/60 Speed grade and 86th percentile Sprint Speed are not exceptional.
Verdict: Not Legit. His recent success seems to largely be due to an inflated BABIP.
His Hard Contact% has jumped a couple of times, but it doesn’t appear to be an upward trend. The increased Line Drive% looks great, but LD% is notoriously noisy. His Pull%, Oppo%, FB%, and GB% have more or less remained steady also, suggesting no real improvement.
Process+ doesn’t seem to believe in his recent success either. He is available in 90% of Yahoo leagues. If you really need to stock up on SB he is an OK middle infield option, but he likely won’t help you elsewhere.
Featured image by Doug Carlin (@bdougals on Twitter)