The end of the regular season is in sight. Maybe we can find a guy or two to get you over the hump in your league or give you an advantage going into next season. We’ll be looking at under-the-radar guys who have been hot recently.
Parker Messick, SP, Cleveland Guardians
Parker Messick has come up and made quite a splash with the red-hot Cleveland Guardians. In 6 starts, he has thrown 34.2 IP, has a 2.08 ERA, 1.30 WHIP, 21.8% K%, and 3.5% BB%. Of course, ERA after 6 starts can have little meaning, and that WHIP is pretty high. How is he allowing so few runs?
FanGraphs rates him as the Guardians’ 4th-best prospect and 49th overall. They gave him a 50 FV, 50/50 Fastball, 45/45 Slider, 45/45 Curveball, 60/70 Changeup, and 50/55 Command. You’d think his changeup has been the key to his early success, right? Well, here’s his Stuff+ so far.
Stuff models tend to struggle with changeups, but his is just average. He has thrown 123 of them, too, so there is a decent sample size. In fact, Stuff+ doesn’t like any of his pitches. What about PLV?
It certainly thinks more highly of them than Stuff+, especially his four-seamer and changeup, his two most thrown pitches. However, PLV takes location into account for each pitch. Stuff+ does not.
Throughout the minors, he posted K%s in the upper 20s and BB%s of 8-10%. His MLB numbers don’t quite align.
Verdict: Not Legit. I think this is a classic case of a guy in a rhythm hitting his spots. It just so happens it coincides with the start of his MLB career. I would expect his K% to increase a few points, but also his BB%. He throws 5 pitches consistently and has weapons for both RHB and LHB. His changeup seems like it could be a good one, but the rest of his pitches are middling. I think he is a high-floor, low-ceiling player in 2026.
Mickey Moniak, OF, Colorado Rockies
Moniak is a 27-year-old OF who has spent time with the Phillies, Angels, and the Rockies in 2025. With the Angels in 2023, he had a 115 wRC+ in 323 PA. In 445 PA this year, he has a 112 wRC+. He’s arrived at that number in roller-coaster fashion.
Maybe with such obvious hot and cold streaks, it’ll be easy to see what he’s doing differently to cause them.
Pretty obvious stuff here. Hard contact leads to a higher ISO, and a higher ISO leads to a higher wRC+. It is interesting to see how closely they are tied together, though.
Moniak has always been an aggressive hitter. Since his MLB career began in earnest in 2022, his 57.5% Swing% is 6th amongst all hitters with at least 1,000 PA.
Moniak’s recent success correlates with an increase in Swing% closer to his career average of 57.2%.
Verdict: Not Legit. Moniak’s increased swing aggression may have caught pitchers off-guard, but it is typically not associated with long-term success. His 73.8 mph (74th percentile) allows him to make enough hard contact to get by. However, 27 years old is usually the tail-end of a player’s physical prime. I think once his Bat Speed declines even just a little, his ultra-aggressive approach will fail him. Unless he refines his approach, he will revert to a below-average hitter and be even more inconsistent than he already is.
Photos by Icon Sportswire | Adapted by Doug Carlin (@Bdougals on Twitter)
