I think it’s fair to say that Jackson Jobe’s MLB debut last season was one of the more anticipated for a pitcher in recent memory. We’ve been hearing about him for a few years now, ever since his draft cycle, the guy who throws high 90s with wicked breaking balls, commands his arsenal like a pitcher beyond his years, and has dominated every level of MILB he’s been to. Prospect hype tends to oversell the actual package of skills, but a lot of what was said about Jobe was warranted. He really does have world-class stuff, there’s no disputing that. However, as is the case for almost any 22-year-old pitcher, he’s a bit rough around the edges and has some refining to do.
Establishing A Baseline
Jobe didn’t transform who he was as a pitcher coming into this season, though he did make some noticeable changes to how he operates. Let’s start with the main things he hasn’t changed from last year.
He still has his good fastball. Sitting 95-97 mph and running it up to 99, Jobe’s fastball is a solid if generic offering. While it moves more than average, there’s nothing unique about it. It’s just a good fastball with velocity and movement, but it’s also about exactly what you would expect a plus fastball from his release to look like. There’s nothing inherently wrong with that, but as the game has evolved, fastballs like this have become less dominant than they used to be, overtaken by the ones with super flat approach angles or with movement that is unexpected from their arm angle. I expect this pitch to perform well enough and serve as a solid base for his arsenal, just don’t be surprised if it’s not the world-beater it may have been a decade ago.
His changeup is a bit of a strange offering. Sometimes we see pronators throwing changeups with starting spin directions that are very different from their 4-seamers, but without the spin rates that would indicate they’re throwing an Airbender-type of changeup. While the different spin direction may slightly hinder its deception, this pitch should be a nightmare for lefties to handle. It has both double-digit velocity and iVB separation from his fastball, which I view as benchmark traits of a good changeup. You don’t necessarily need to check every box for a changeup to succeed. Between spin deception, well-repeated delivery, the aforementioned velocity and movement separations, there are a lot of ways to make them work. Jobe’s works in the most visibly obvious way, by being substantially slower, while dropping and fading far more.
New Look Rookie
Jobe’s “cutter” carries the same pitch-type label as last year but has undergone a metamorphosis over the offseason.
Instead of being caught between the ideal cutter and slider shapes, it has now blossomed into an exceptional version of the latter. With excellent power, horizontal movement, and depth (especially when compared to his 4-seam), this new slider has everything going for it. It immediately stands out as his best pitch from a stuff perspective, and he’s been treating it accordingly so far, with much higher usage.
His sweeper has yet to make an appearance this year despite what Statcast says about a couple of mislabeled curveballs. I hope that’s not a permanent shelving of the pitch, as his sweeper was potentially his best offering against right-handed hitters. Last year it had a good combination of power and horizontal movement.
He’s debuted a sinker this year, a new weapon to throw against righties, somewhat making up for the absence of his sweeper. He has wisely restricted the sinker usage to righties only, allowing it to play above its fairly pedestrian shape.
He’s also shown a curveball we didn’t see in the majors last year. It has enough movement and power to be decent even if its shape isn’t optimal. If he can figure out how to zone it, it could be a good secondary against lefties, and maybe has enough total movement to work against righties below the zone if his sweeper is gone for good.
Beyond the individual pitch types, though, Jobe made progress toward cleaning up something that was going to become an issue for him if he had maintained it from last year.
Having widely spread out arm angles across a pitcher’s arsenal can lead to unintentional tipping of pitches through the delivery. Even if it’s subconsciously, hitters will pick up on if you’re dropping your arm to twirl a breaking ball, or raising your slot to get behind it if the gap is extreme enough. Having inconsistent deliveries can also lead to command issues for some pitchers. Jobe has tightened up his angles from his major league stint, but does have two distinct slots (on paper) this year. One for the fastball and curveball, and one for everything else.
Shifting arm slots around will inevitably have effects on his pitch shapes, which is why this is a balancing act. In chasing a perfectly repeated slot across all pitches, you can wind up losing some of what makes them great. I think at present Jobe has done enough to mitigate any unintentional tipping via arm angle, but isn’t so far to the positive end to gain any benefit from being unreadable in his delivery.
The Next Steps
We’ve covered a lot of positives so far, which makes sense; there’s a lot to like about Jobe. His future as a pitcher looks very bright. With that said, a lot of it hinges on his ability to execute. This was likely the most overblown part of his prospect profile. Jobe’s command still needs significant work. This isn’t scary or disqualifying, it’s about what you would expect from a fireballer his age. He hasn’t figured out how to consistently elevate the fastball, bury the cutter or changeup, zone the curveball, or anything like that. The only pitch that’s been located particularly well this year, oddly enough, is the new sinker. He’s been running that in on righties reasonably well.
He’s shown flashes with the other pitches; the idea of what to do is visible in his pitch plots. He knows where they’re supposed to go, but he just isn’t getting them there consistently. I wouldn’t say he’s having issues repeating his delivery, his release points don’t tend to stray all over the place. I think it’s just something that’s going to have to come with time and patience. In the meantime, his inability to locate his pitches in optimal spots will get in the way of him reaching his potential. I fully believe he’ll be an ace eventually; it’s just a matter of waiting for him to get there. The things to watch for going forward lie almost entirely in his executing his pitches better. Look for fastballs up, cutters and changeups down and away from hitters, and curveballs in the zone. Less misses down the middle would be a nice touch, too.
I’ve always hated the phrase “he’s a thrower, not a pitcher” because it feels disingenuous and gives too much credit to the pitchers perceived to have “excellent command” when in reality it’s just that they’re missing less badly and less often. I’m not asking for surgical precision, that does not exist on a consistent basis for any pitcher, even the deGroms and Kirbys of the baseball world. I just want to see Jobe in the general vicinity and see what he needs to be doing. It doesn’t have to be perfect, his stuff gives him some cushion that not every pitcher can afford. From here, it’s just a matter of making progress one game at a time.
