Since he debuted in 2020, the lingering question around Johan Oviedo has been when he would take the next step, or if he would at all. It wasn’t hard to dream on his potential as a 6’6”, 275 lbs behemoth of a pitcher with a hard fastball and good slider. The jump just never came. He finished his first full healthy season as a starter in 2023, looking like a fine depth guy and not much more. And then he vanished. Generally speaking, going almost two years between MLB appearances due to injuries isn’t a sign that good things are coming for his career. And yet… here we are, talking about him a month and a half into his return.
It goes against conventional wisdom that a pitcher coming off of both Tommy John surgery and a lat injury would come back with a fastball that is markedly better than it used to be. With the pitching labs available to players these days, though, it’s not impossible. It would seem he used the time off to revamp his delivery and finally fix his biggest problem. Let’s look at what’s different about Oviedo since getting back to MLB action, and what it means for him going forward.
From Worst to First
Admittedly, the section header directly above these words is a bit of an exaggeration on the surface. Oviedo did not have the very worst fastball in the league, nor does he now have the very best. It better represents how it jumped from his worst pitch to his best. That said, it is jarring how he managed to go from a fastball that was distinctly below average, I’d say 45-grade at best, to an easy 60, maybe even 65.
It’s rare that a drop in velo, even a slight one, leads to a better fastball. In this case, everything else is so improved that it doesn’t matter. The increased extension actually largely erases the velo loss; these two versions of his fastball have the same average flight time. More importantly, the shape of his fastball is miles better than the old version. The only thing that kept Oviedo’s old fastball from being squarely in the dead zone for its release was that it didn’t have enough total movement to get there. It wasn’t unique in a good way like some gyro-heavy fastballs are; it was just mediocre. It got some ground balls but was also the source of most of the damage he allowed. More so than his sometimes shaky command, it represented the biggest obstacle to his success.
This season, however, Oviedo is getting substantially more rise, from a lower release point. He’s nearly doubled this pitch’s whiff rate compared to 2023 by creating a far flatter angle for it. There’s not an exact one-to-one comparison for his fastball now, no direct clones to point to. In terms of pure stuff, I’d put it in the same category as Zack Wheeler’s 4-seam. It doesn’t run as much as Wheeler’s, but it’s similarly difficult to hit as it rises more than expected from a low slot and release, with elite extension. It also comes with the bonus of a tall pitcher dropping down to release the ball, creating a strange look for hitters.
In all honesty, I don’t know exactly what he’s doing differently to accomplish the new movement. I can explain the results of what he’s doing and what the metrics shown above mean, but I haven’t figured out for certain how he’s going about obtaining them. My leading theory is a grip or intent change. His old 4-seam had a slight positive seam-shifted wake, the exact opposite of what you want a right-hander’s 4-seam to do, as that lowers the movement direction, causing it to rise less and run more.
The current version gets a bit of a counter-clockwise difference between spin and movement direction, like you would expect a righty’s cut 4-seam to do. I can’t say for sure it was a grip change because I didn’t find anything about that, as well as me never having come across a 4-seam that did quite what Oviedo’s used to before. Now and then, a pure pronator with super high active spin might see the movement direction tilt just a little bit down the axis from the initial spin direction. Four guys have had that happen this season.
That’s not Oviedo, though, as a pitcher with a 4-seam active spin percentage in the 70s for most of his career. Andre Pallante’s oddball gyro 4-seam is the closest thing I’ve seen to that, but it’s honestly not that similar. I don’t know exactly what Oviedo used to do to make his fastball do that before this season, but I’m glad he stopped. Having a more conventional cut 4-seam allows him to generate great movement for his release point and arm angle.
You can see the numbers for yourself. Take these with several grains of salt; there’s definitely small sample noise in the contact and whiff rates here. I think it being so different than the previous scouting report on Oviedo is throwing hitters a bit. I would expect those numbers to cool off over a larger sample as hitters get used to his new fastball and know what to expect. He also has a bloated pop-up and oppo rate, helping those batted ball metrics. Still, even with the expected regression, I would think this pitch will perform at an elite level, especially once he’s further removed from his post-injury cobwebs.
The Rest of the Arsenal
Having already discussed how great his new fastball is, let’s move on to the slider. This pitch only saw slight differences with his mechanical change. Of course, the increased extension and lowered arm slot and release point hold. In terms of velocity and movement, it added a tiny bit of depth and sweep while losing a tick of velocity. It’s still a great slider, falling off the table with power and some glove-side movement. It might see increased effectiveness as well with more vertical separation from his primary fastball.
His curveball is difficult to evaluate. It lost 3.2 mph while only gaining 2” of sweep and 1.6” of negative IVB. This separates it from his slider a bit more, and the new, wider velocity gap could further increase the way they play off of each other. What initially looks like a blending problem on a movement chart can actually work in their favor. It’s a similar concept to what Eury Pérez’s breaking balls were doing in his rookie season. It allows a pitch that’s pretty mediocre from a stuff perspective to play up. It is a bit odd to me that Oviedo doesn’t have something with more sweep or depth for his slower breaking ball; he should be capable of throwing one like that. This one is fine, though.
Though not as extreme as the 4-seam, his sinker also saw some changes during his time away. Unlike his primary fastball, this one did what you expect a fastball to do when a pitcher drops his arm angle, shedding an inch of IVB. With the lower release and extra extension, this is probably a wash; it’s the same quality of pitch as it was in 2023. However, now that it has substantial vertical separation from his 4-seam, it stands a better chance of inducing ground balls and working in tandem with the rest of his arsenal. What was previously a somewhat redundant pitch can now do its job properly while the other heater hunts whiffs. While it lacks elite depth, it makes up for it by looking like his 4-seam out of the hand and having good arm-side run.
Oddly, despite having the same slight arm slot drop as his other pitches, the changeup didn’t change much. Same velocity, same movement, just a lower release. I like the potential of this pitch now that it has some movement separation from the 4-seam, but it’s definitely more of a prospective offering. It’s not the most deceptive changeup ever. He doesn’t use it much, and he already has three pitches designed to handle platoon matchups.
Battling for Control
Experienced baseball fans know better than to expect the world of a pitcher returning from a long absence. It varies by player, but it generally takes them a while to regain form and command after missing time due to injury. Sandy Alcantara stands out as the most obvious and recent example of a pitcher not looking like himself upon return despite his pitches not losing their stuff. Oviedo, especially as a pitcher who has battled his command at times during his career, is no exception.
His pitch maps are all over the place so far. They’re barely worth looking at right now. I don’t think he has any idea where his new 4-seam is going yet. The slider shows more signs of a plan, landing down and to the glove side with some regularity, but more often just filling the zone. The curve we can at least tell he’s doing his best to land back door to lefties. Unfortunately, it’s not getting there often enough, landing off the zone in a spot where it’s not likely to get chases. The sinker he seems to want to throw down and/or into righties, to varying results. I’m not going to bother trying to interpret the 20 changeups he’s thrown; there’s no pattern to discern there.
As I said, he’s had his issues locating his pitches during his career, and the rust he has from missing so much time is exacerbating the issue. Performing as well as he has in the last month and a half since returning is a testament to the quality of his stuff, given that it’s playing like this while he isn’t able to place it at all. I wouldn’t expect substantial command improvement this season. We’re winding down to the end of the year, and there are only two starts left on the schedule for him at the time of writing.
With that in mind, I’m so excited to see what he looks like next season. If he can elevate his new 4-seam semi-consistently, it should continue to obliterate hitters. He doesn’t need to be pinpoint accurate out there. The stuff should play as long as he’s not teeing it up or throwing too many waste pitches. Follow the general rules of where you want pitches to be: fastball up, slider down, etc. That’s what I want to see. That’s all he needs to succeed.
All statistics and metrics as of September 16, 2025.
Photos by Icon Sports Wire | By Carlos Leano
