In fantasy baseball, it can be very difficult to project what a player’s statistics will look like. This is particularly true with pitchers, where injuries, volatility, and luck can create a gap between their production and true talent. While this is also true for hitters, it isn’t as much the case.
As a result, a case can be clearly made the hitter are much more valuable draft targets than pitchers. While you can embrace the volatility of pitchers later in the draft, you could look towards the early rounds to establish your foundation of bats to take you over the top. Here’s an analogy using this type of thinking: pitchers can be icing of the cake, but the hitters are the cake.
At the end of the day, though, we want to bake our cake and eat it too! Thus, not only do we want to draft productive hitters, but do so at discounted spots in the draft. The more surplus value we can get for each pick, the better chance we have of hoisting the championship belt at the end of the season. Hey, that’s the goal, right?
Today, we will be looking at my top five favorite hitter targets. This factors in their current average draft position (ADP), as we’re looking to find players who the market appears to be undervaluing. We’ll also be factoring other considerations here, such as positional scarcity and roster construction, which can add extra value to a player. So, which hitters should you be targeting in drafts this year?
ADP data via NFC.shgn.com (Drafts since February 1)
Stats via Baseball Savant and FanGraphs
OF Mookie Betts (LAD)
2021 Stats (550 PA): .264/.367/.487, 23 HR, 93 R, 58 RBI, 10 SB
ADP: 15.84 (OF7)
While I cannot confirm this, I truly believe Mookie Betts has become one of the most underappreciated star players in the MLB. With a career 44 fWAR at just 29 years old, and a career 135 wRC+, he’s surely heading for the Hall of Fame, and rightfully so. Between 2016 and 2021, he’s second in fWAR, third in offensive runs above average, and has been as consistent as they come. Talk about a strong peak performance.
However, this is a fantasy baseball article, and our main concern is how Betts will perform in 2022. That appears to be more of a question mark after he had a “down” 2021 season for his standards. After all, this was a player who was mainly drafted in the top five in most formats.
Betts’ .264 batting average was a career-low, while his .223 ISO was the lowest it had been since 2017. Furthermore, his 550 plate appearances were the lowest for a full season in his career, which led to his counting statistics being worse than normal. Simply put, it wasn’t the season that he, the Dodgers, or his fantasy managers had in mind. Is this a sign of the beginning of decline? In my opinion, we’re not there yet.
In fact, I’m rather confident that we see Betts bounce back in 2022. Let’s start with his batting average. Betts’ .276 BABIP and 23.6% line-drive rate were well below his career norms, and should be expected to revert back to what we expect in 2022. Plus, as he dealt with multiple injuries, his home-to-first time (4.46 seconds) was not up to his usual standards. A healthier Betts should solve these problems.
Now, I’m a little worried about him posting a career-high 45.2% pull rate in 2021, which could hurt the BABIP slightly. At the same time, this affects right-handed hitters much less than left-handed hitters, while it helps his power. A high pull rate and fly ball rate is the precise combination you need to manufacture as much power as possible, which is exactly what Betts did last year:
Remember, Dodger Stadium is the most favorable park for right-handed hitters when it comes to hitting home runs, per Baseball Savant park factors. I don’t see much reason to doubt his ability to hit 30+ home runs next season, which is going to help his runs and RBI totals. So will hitting at the top of the lineup for one of the best offenses in baseball — a factor that doesn’t get enough consideration.
Betts did make less zone contact in 2021, but he made up for it with better swing decisions. His 63.9% zone-swing rate was the highest of his career, while he managed to do that while lowering his chase rate to 18.2%. This helps establish a high floor for Betts. He won’t strikeout much, so when you combine that with a better BABIP, you get around a .280 batting average. Meanwhile, you add in 30 home runs, over 100 runs, and over 80 RBI, and you get a complete player; he should steal more now that he’s healthy again.
Despite a very balanced skillset that can really help you be flexible with how you construct the rest of your team, Betts is currently falling to the second round in both 12-team and 15-team drafts. Personally, I’d prefer him to the likes of Bryce Harper and Kyle Tucker, while I’m much more confident in his accumulating 650+ plate appearances than Mike Trout. It’s easy to build the narrative that he’s on the decline, but there isn’t any reason to believe in that.
If you control your draft position, you may want to look for a later pick. This allows you to secure Betts in the second round, even though he’s still a bona fide first-round pick in my books. All of a sudden, you can start your team with two first-round caliber players, which can be just what you need to ride off to the sunset. So, grab a cookie, and have faith in Mookie!
C/OF Daulton Varsho (ARI)
2021 Stats (315 PA): .246/.318/.437, 11 HR, 41 R, 38 RBI, 6 SB
ADP: 89.37 (C4)
I think it’s safe to say the catcher position is not what you would call deep. Last season, catchers posted the lowest wRC+ (89) of any position, while their .228 batting average was by far the lowest. Add in the limited stolen bases, and it might be the most barren position when it comes to fantasy baseball production.
To better illustrate this, let’s look at the replacement value for each position last season, based on Fangraphs’ 5×5 dollar valuations. To define replacement value, we’ll look at the 16th player — the first non-starter in 15-team leagues:
| Position | 2021 Replacement Value |
|---|---|
| C | $4.30 |
| 1B | $10 |
| 2B | $9.80 |
| 3B | $3.50 |
| SS | $10.10 |
| OF | $5.10 |
Catchers= 16th-best player
Outfield= 46th-best player
The only position that produced less value at the “replacement value” that we defined was third base, but if you play in a two-catcher league, things change. Meanwhile, it isn’t as though there are many catchers who have a locked-on starting role. In 2021, only two catchers qualified for the batting title with 502 plate appearances, while only seven eclipsed 450 plate appearances. The edge you can get from obtaining strong contributions from this position, considering the replacement value, is quite strong.
This leads me to Daulton Varsho, who is quite the unicorn when it comes to this position. He has catcher eligibility, but is set to spend a considerable amount of time in center field. In other words, he can be in your lineup as a catcher all year, yet he won’t suffer from the wear and tear that catchers generally deal with — he’s also in position, especially with the universal designated hitter, to get a lot of plate appearances.
Plus, let’s not act as though Varsho can’t be a strong offensive producer this season. Sure, his overall numbers don’t look impressive, but it’s conflated by a 32 wRC+ in his first 96 plate appearances. From that point on, a much different story is told:
It makes sense that it would’ve taken Varsho some time to adjust to the major league level, especially since he didn’t receive full-time plate appearances until later in the season. His 8% barrel rate during this span doesn’t necessarily stand out, but with a 38.5% ground ball rate, he does do a nice job of keeping the ball in the air, which will boost his power numbers. Plus, with a 9.2% solid contact rate, there is certainly some reason to expect more barrels in 2022.
Then, there’s the final edge that Varsho brings to your team — his speed. How often do you see a catcher rank in the 84th percentile in sprint speed? His six stolen bases in 315 plate appearances aren’t extremely impressive, but this is a bit deceiving. He only stole one base in his first 97 plate appearances, but in those 223 plate appearances in the second half, he stole five. This would put him on pace for double-digit stolen bases, which aligns with where ATC and ZiPs projections have him. At a position where speed is almost impossible to come by, that’s valuable.
Currently, Varsho is being drafted as the fourth catcher off the board, which is where I personally have him projected to finish at. However, I also see a notable gap between him and the next catchers off the board, yet he’s clustered in with the likes of Yasmani Grandal and Willson Contreras. Those players might offer a higher floor, but the combination of speed, power, and a capable batting average makes Varsho stand out for me. If he receives more playing time than we expect, watch out. This is precisely the type of ascending player you should be looking to invest in during drafts.
1B Joey Votto (CIN)
2021 Stats (533 PA): .266/.375/.563, 36 HR, 73 R, 99 RBI, 1 SB
ADP: 139.55 (1B15)
During his prime, Joey Votto was as good as it gets. Through 2017, his overall numbers were absolutely absurd:
Add in the fact that he walked (16.4%) almost as much as he struck out (17.7%), and this certainly sounds like a Hall of Fame profile to me! Regardless, starting with his age-34 season in 2018, things started to take a turn for the worse. Between 2018 and 2019, his wRC+ regressed to 114, while his power (.143 ISO) completely fell off. With a 98 wRC+ in 2019, it seemed that we’d seen the end of Votto’s prominence as an elite hitter.
Votto “rebounded” to a 112 wRC+ during the shortened season in 2020, but it wasn’t enough for fantasy managers to get excited about. According to Rotoholic.com, he was the 37th first baseman drafted in the NFBC Main Event last season. You read that right — 37th! Simply put, it was presumed that he was a shell of his former self.
Little did the world know, however, that Votto was gearing up for a career renaissance. Prior to the 2021 season, he stated that “he wanted to get back to being dangerous”, according to the Associated Press. However, there’s more that Votto said that should garner attention:
“I lost some of my strengths that I first came to the league with — hitting the ball all over the field with power, being difficult to defend,” Votto said. “I did that in exchange for command of the strike zone, putting the ball in play, being a tough at-bat. And it zapped my power.”
Votto went on to say:
“I’m back to kind of a more comfortable place in terms of hitting,” Votto said. “Of course it’s going to come with some more swings and misses and of course strikeouts, but as long as I’m productive and as long as I’m dangerous at the plate, it’ll pay itself off. I have to remind myself that at the core, you know, that’s who I am.”
Essentially, Votto predicted exactly what 2021 had in store for him. As you would expect, his whiff rate (29.4%) and strikeout rate (23.8%) both went up. That said, do you know what else went up? You guessed it — his power. The 38-year-old posted a career-high .297 ISO, which came with a 17.2% barrel rate, and career bests in quality of contact measures: average exit velocity (92.9 mph), hard-hit rate (53.2%), and expected weighted-on-base average on contact (.498 xwOBACON). Add in a career-low 33.2% ground ball rate, and Votto had done everything possible to become the exact type of hitter he wanted to be.
Now, Votto’s adjustment didn’t happen right away. For example, here was his fly ball rate per month:
- April: 31.1%
- June: 26.4%
- July: 44.8%
- August: 43.5%
- September: 41.9%
Votto missed almost all of May due to injury, and upon returning, he was a completely different beast. For the rest of the year, he posted a 155 wRC+, a .327 ISO, and a 18.9% barrel rate. Condense that to the second half, and those numbers go up: 165 wRC+, .383 ISO, and a 21.2% barrel rate. Outside of Juan Soto, I don’t think you can find a better hitter during that span.
For more on Votto, here is a year-in-review piece I wrote in December. You certainly don’t expect a career renaissance from a 37-year-old (now 38). That being said, it’s easy to buy into this. We don’t even have to hypothesize if his changes were intentional — we have him quoted stating what changes he was going to make. Despite this, Votto is being drafted as a fringe starting first baseman this year. To me, that cannot continue to be the case. For 2022, my motto is to believe in Votto. We saw what he was capable of last season, and there’s no reason that he can’t be a top-ten first baseman this year.
2B, 3B Eduardo Escobar (NYM)
2021 Stats (599 PA): .253/.314/.472, 28 HR, 77 R, 90 RBI, 1 SB
ADP: 190.55 (3B18, 2B22)
During fantasy baseball preparation, we tend to get fixated on exciting, flashy players. However, there is something to be said about consistent, reliable production. Players who provide this often get discounted in drafts, but why should that be the case?
That’s the story of Eduardo Escobar. When you think of players who you are excited to watch, he might not come to mind. However, if you’re looking for a player with as high of a floor as there is, the 33-year-old might be for. Take a look at his last three full seasons:
That is the model of consistency, to say the least. His real-life value may be hampered by a lower OBP, but for fantasy, his profile works — an adequate batting average with plus power. Now, he did struggle during the 2020 season with a 55 wRC+, which might be hurting his projections. That being said, when he immediately responded with another productive season, are you going to hold that against him, considering what we know about the craziness of that season? I certainly will not.
Escobar isn’t someone who posts gaudy barrel rates, though his 8.9% barrel rate last season was a career-high. What he does do, however, is a.) pull the ball and b.) hit the ball in the air consistently. These two factors are how you overachieve your expected power numbers, which he has done with ease. 20 of his 28 home runs were pulled, while only two were hit the other way. This is clearly a hitter gearing for power, and based on his past three full seasons, it’s clearly working.
Then, there’s the final aspect in Escobar’s favor — his team change. For the past three years, outside of a brief stint with Milwaukee to finish last year, he’s been with the Diamondbacks. Chase Field ranks in the bottom ten in home run park factor, leading to him having 13 home runs less than expected over the past three years. Now, he goes to the Mets, who have an above-average home run park factor, and also play in the NL East. Why is this important? Well, let’s take a look at how many home runs Escobar would’ve hit had he played all of his games at each of the NL East stadiums:
Only the Marlins have a below-average home run park factor. For perspective, he would’ve only been expected to hit 24 home runs had he played all his games at Chase Field. In simple terms, he’s in a much better position to hit for power now that he’s in New York. Plus, he’ll be hitting in the middle of the lineup for an offense that should do well next season. Going from playing for two below-average offenses to that should certainly help with his RBI production.
Quietly, Escobar finished ninth-most valuable third baseman and 15th-best second baseman in 5×5 roto leagues last year, per FanGraphs auction values. Based on his current ADP, the market is baking in significant regression for the 33-year-old. I don’t see it. If anything, his production should take a bump now that he’s with the Mets, and, at the very worst, his production should be in line with where it was last year. If you miss out on a third baseman early, or are looking to fill your corner infield or middle infield spots, this is a player to definitely target. He’s not the sexiest option, but he’s precisely the type of stable commodity that’s part of a winning team.
OF Jorge Soler (FA)
2021 Stats (602 PA): .223/.316/.432, 27 HR, 74 R, 70 RBI, 0 SB
ADP: 193.13 (OF52)
Is there a player whose home runs are more aesthetically pleasing that Jorge Soler? I’m not sure.
SOLER HAS LEFT THE BUILDING. pic.twitter.com/IOc5wXreRb
— MLB (@MLB) November 3, 2021
We all know about the raw power that Soler has. He’s ranked top 6% of the league or better in max exit velocity in every season of his career, while he ranked in the 99th percentile in max exit velocity (117.9 mph). In 2019, he led all of baseball in home runs with 48, and seemed to established himself as one of the premier power hitters at that point.
However, things often don’t go as planned. Soler’s 2020 season was conflated by both a 34.5% strikeout rate and a decline in power (.215 ISO), but he was still a top 150 pick heading into last season. Based on the first half of the season, it’s likely that his fantasy managers cut bait with him. Through June, Soler’s numbers weren’t particularly inspiring:
- 285 PA, .186/.283/.318, .132 ISO, 6 HR, 66 wRC+, 10.2% BB, 28.8% K
Yikes. With a lot of swing-and-miss issues and no power whatsoever, Soler was a non-asset for fantasy purposes. At that point, it was hard to retain faith in him. However, for those who did. They certainly were rewarded. Simply put, his numbers in the second half were absurd.
It was only a matter of time that Soler’s power came together. Now, his 12.9% barrel rate in the second half was pretty much on par with his 12.1% barrel rate in the first half. However, his batted-ball luck improved significantly. In the first half, his 8.6% home run/rate was astonishingly low, considering his barrel rate. That regressed positively to a 24.7% home run/fly ball rate in the second half.
The reason to be high on Soler isn’t because his batted-ball luck happened to come at the perfect time. Rather, it’s the changes that occurred as the season went on. Let’s start with his previous swing-and-miss issues.
In the second half of the season, Soler’s strikeout rate dropped to 18.8%. Even if you look at his season-long statistics, his 23.6% strikeout rate was the lowest of his career. This correlates with much more contact in the zone, as well as improved plate discipline. As someone who is generally seen as a batting average drain, improved contact quantity could take him out of that classification.
Meanwhile, a major reason Soler’s power was hampered was him playing in Kansas City, the least-friendly ballpark for right-hander hitter home runs, per Baseball Savant park factors. Almost all of his games in the second half took place as a member of the Braves after being traded to Atlanta, which explains the improved luck.
Now a free agent, Soler has a chance to continue to hit at a ballpark that can maximize his power. Even if he doesn’t go to the optimal landing spot, he can only go up from Kansas City. The universal designated hitter makes it practically a lock that he’ll get everyday plate appearances, which should lead into strong production in terms of power, runs, and RBI. Going near pick #200, this is a player who can be a big boost in those categories, especially compared to other outfielders going in that range. Our own Van Burnett predicted Soler to finish as a top-50 player and top-15 outfielder in his bold predictions. While that obviously isn’t his median projection, there is a clear route to finishing as a top-30 outfielder this year. This draft season, make sure to invest in some Soler power!
Photos by Icon Sportswire | Adapted by Doug Carlin (@Bdougals on Twitter)