Sitting at #4 on The List is Jacob deGrom, which doesn't look all too good when he goes 4.0 IP, 7 ER, 8 Hits, 5 BBs, 6 Ks, raising his ERA to 3.97, BB/9 to 3.84, and a 1.37 WHIP. That is not #4, that shouldn't even be Top 20! Right, okay. Will he be #4 on Monday? Nah, I can't do that after such a step back. Do I think he's Top 10 still? Absolutely. There is just so much to like about deGrom. xFIP of 3.05 with an atrocious 18.2% HR/FB rate that will fall. 12.18 K/9 driven by an absurd 15.1% whiff rate that ranks fourth in the majors. His IPS is easily over 6.0 and he has a history of great control that indicates his walk rate should be much lower moving forward. But why is he walking so many batters? That part I honestly don't understand and makes me believe he'll be walking fewer batters in the near future. His zone rates are similar, he's getting more strikes with his increased whiff rates and he hasn't wildly changed his approach when behind in the count. So the walks aren't the biggest concern of mine, but it's actually the amount of hard contact allowed - 37.6% compared to a career 30.4% career. That's very worrisome and indicates that his 18.2% HR/FB, while elevated, isn't so far off from how he's pitching. Still, with the increased whiff rates and history of better control, I think you're going to see a much better deGrom here on out, one very worthy of the Top 10 especially when few are exhibiting the upside he presents. I would be buying low and holding if I owned him.
Let’s see how every other SP did yesterday:
Someone in my league offered me Aaron Sanchez for Ervin Santana. I think its a good trade for me but I am worried cause Sanchez can’t stay healthy.
I think you hold Santana. I prefer Sanchez for the second half, but Santana warrants more value now than Sanchez.
I just traded for Kluber, after Paxton dominating yesterday do we betray the DLH gods??
In roto, I wouldn’t. Paxton was the exception, not the majority.
H2H, really depends on your situation. I think you’re okay doing it if you need the start, but if it’s a luxury, I wouldn’t do it.
Bregman is available in my league. Who would you drop of these: Maeda, Godley, JC Ramirez, Odor, Dyson or Hanley.
I’d be dropping Dyson.
Is Berrios and McCutchen a good offer for deGrom? Switch out Cutch for Yo or Conforto?
I’d do Cutch and Berrios for deGrom.
What are your thoughts on Peacock? He seems like, if he’s stretched out, he could dominate.
I actually led with a discussion on Brad Peacock the other day, please excuse me for simply leaving the link here, but I think it articulates my thoughts well.
http://pitcherlist.com/fanning-your-feathers/
Just looked at it, right on the money! Thanks, Nick, cheers!
Need to pick: Jimmy Nelson vs. LAD or Randall Delgado vs. MIA?
Go with your gut, both high risk pitchers.
I think I lean Nelson just because we’ve seen more of his upside and has a better chance of going deep if it goes well.
Would hate to start either one.
I have a lot of injury prone Pitchers, you think I should trade Paxton for Lester? Or Darvish for Keuchel?
Nope and nope. Hold Paxton and Darvish.
If this year has taught us anything, it’s that no pitchers are safe from injury.
Great work on the staunch advocacy of Manaea. A testament to your ahead of the curve insight!
As for Clevinger,I think part of the pushback is that unlike Manaea, you never really talked him up much prior to the rankings jump. We don’t know why he should be so highly regarded when a)he’s had poor walk rates through his career and b) the Indians don’t even seem committed to keeping him in the rotation. Ok, he had another solid start. So did Wheeler, another high walk rate guy, with a better pedigree (at least pre-injury) having a good month. And he sits at #73.
Great point on the lack of communication regarding Clev and I’ll definitely keep that in mind moving forward.
Not a bad comparison at all between Clevinger and Wheeler, though I think there is a major difference that resulted in their gap this week. With Wheeler, I think we kinda know what he is at this point – 3.72 ERA/3.88 xFIP/3.95 FIP with a 3.72 BB/9 kinda says it all. IPS at 5.5 as well. Only one start above 6 Ks and mostly 4/5 strikeouts outings. He’s not really all too exciting, honestly.
Meanwhile, I think Clevinger is a better upside pick that I would much rather gamble on to be a solid asset ROS. He has a more polished repertoire and a Fastball that I trust to be located more frequently than Wheeler’s.
A history of poor walk rates might be the first thing that I’m able to excuse if I see a pitcher with solid control in multiple starts. In his last two starts before this one, I mentioned that what I saw of Clevinger wasn’t someone who was trying to hold back a dog on a leash, but instead had a good grasp on putting his heater where he wanted to. It seemed like he’d taken a step forward and now he has three straight starts totaling 5 walks. I’m a believer that the 26-year-old has made an adjustment.
And about the Indians’ commitment to Clevinger, I don’t really follow that. They were able to demote Salazar because they trusted Clev could take the role easily. If we get back to a point of returning Salazar to the rotation – whenever that would be – I wouldn’t be shocked to see Tomlin get the axe or possible another arm gets injured. It’s not a large enough concern for me to not take the flier on him.
Lastly, thanks for pointing out Manaea! Nice of you to say that.
Re: Junior Guerra. Why isn’t it 2016 again?? Looks like he’s picking right back up where he left off. Just found him on my waiver wire and was trying to introduce myself to him, only to be even more confused by what I’ve found so far. With the Brewers offense much improved over last year, seems his fantasy worthiness could hold steady even if he regresses slighty as a pitcher.
Also, anxious for more of your thoughts on one Dinelson Lamet. Thanks in advance for any guidance.
Would you trade Tanaka and Todd Frazier for deGrom?
Definitely!