Keuchel’in It

The 2016 iteration of Dallas Keuchel was bad. Like 4.55 ERA and a mediocre K/9 bad. 2017 has been a different story thus far though, and after last night’s 7.0 IP, 1...

The 2016 iteration of Dallas Keuchel was bad. Like 4.55 ERA and a mediocre K/9 bad. 2017 has been a different story thus far though, and after last night’s 7.0 IP, 1 ER, 4 Hits, 2 BBs, 7 Ks he’s now rocking a 0.86 ERA and 0.62 WHIP. Okay, small sample size and not everything is so pristine. He’s averaging five Ks per start, FIP is at .360, a .113 BABIP is all kinds of absurd, and we have to consider that two of those three starts came against the Royals and Athletics. Still, I’d be silly to not mention his 70%+ groundball rate, 30.9% soft contact, and 14.6% hard contact thus far, which is all kinds of beautiful. Do I think Keuchel can be a Top 20 guy in 2017? Nah, and I think anyone treating him like one would be letting their emotions get in the way. Now can he be a solid floor guy well inside the Top 40, absolutely and you’ll see him slotted right inside there tomorrow. I worry about the Ks coming back and there’s no way that BABIP/batted ball profile sticks, which means I’m curious what kind of regression we’ll see, but if there were any way to get me to reconsider Keuchel, this was it.

Let’s see how every other SP did yesterday:

Clayton Kershaw – 8.1 IP, 1 ER, 4 Hits, 1 BBs, 8 Ks. Aces gonna ace. Were some of you worried? I hope not.

Danny Duffy – 7.0 IP, 1 ER, 3 Hits, 2 BBs, 6 Ks. With all my distaste for Duffy, I still have him at 29 and he played the Angels. Of course I liked this start.

Daniel Norris – 6.0 IP, 0 ER, 2 Hits, 4 BBs, 5 Ks. Well, I feel kinda justified sitting Norris here against the Indians with the four walks, but to see only two hits and 0 ER makes me kinda regret it. More importantly, I’m running him out there against the Rays with confidence and you should definitely add him if he’s out there.

Stephen Strasburg – 7.0 IP, 2 ER, 5 Hits, 2 BBs, 8 Ks. Aces gonna ace. Solid Stras. Solid.

Felix Hernandez – 7.1 IP, 1 ER, 6 Hits, 0 BBs, 3 Ks. Felix is making Fast regret calling him “Prince Felix” and while I don’t think he’ll be Top 20 again, he’s comfortably nestled inside of the Top 40 now.

Gerrit Cole – 6.0 IP, 2 ER, 6 Hits, 1 BBs, 5 Ks. Well well well. Someone decided to show up finally. This is harking back to your days of “King of Really Good” as it doesn’t blow you away, but it’s certainly productive.

Johnny Cueto – 7.0 IP, 2 ER, 6 Hits, 1 BBs, 6 Ks. Aces gonna ace. I feel like Cueto is the true KoRG as he’s often called the best floor ace who doesn’t come with the flashy starts. Whatever, keep starting Cueto in all circumstances.

Wade Miley – 6.0 IP, 3 ER, 5 Hits, 0 BBs, 8 Ks. Oh lord. I guess he has to be good for some starts or the O’s would have dealt him to the Mariners already.

Noah Syndergaard – 6.0 IP, 1 ER, 6 Hits, 0 BBs, 4 Ks. Aces gonna ace. For the most part. Four Ks from Thor is like 10 Ks from Cain. He left the game early with a torn fingernail, which is much better than the earlier reported blister, and you have to expect him getting his next start.

Aaron Nola – 5.0 IP, 1 ER, 6 Hits, 0 BBs, 6 Ks. Sure health is the largest question mark, but for Nola to be a Top 20 pitcher, he needs to have a ton of confidence in his Changeup. I was so pumped watching this that I made a supercut of the Changeups he threw yesterday. GET PUMPED. For those wondering why he was pulled after five innings and 90 pitches, it’s because the Phils are being slightly cautious early on with Nola given his elbow schtuff from last year. I imagine he’ll be going deeper in games shortly.

Chris Archer – 5.2 IP, 1 ER, 6 Hits, 2 BBs, 5 Ks. I want to give him AGA, but I just can’t with a WHIP over 1.33 and just five Ks. I know you can do better.

Adalberto Mejia – 5.0 IP, 1 ER, 4 Hits, 3 BBs, 4 Ks. Blegh with a side of eye rolls. So tasty this time of year.

Julio Teheran – 6.0 IP, 2 ER, 5 Hits, 4 BBs, 5 Ks. Pax gets the Rangers today, but I’m willing to be that’s better than this. He is the better pitcher after all and Teheran with four walks? Dude, that’s not cool.

Masahiro Tanaka – 6.1 IP, 3 ER, 5 Hits, 2 BBs, 5 Ks. Ehhhh, this is pretty bleghy but a step in the right direction.

Dylan Covey – 5.1 IP, 1 ER, 5 Hits, 3 BBs, 1 Ks. Covey is here until Giolito and Lopez are here. Or Quintana gets traded and we have to deal with him all year. Well, I do, but not you guys. You’ll avoid him because he’s a Cup of Schmo.

Kendall Graveman – 5.0 IP, 1 ER, 5 Hits, 2 BBs, 0 Ks. Zero strikeouts from Graveman and a 7.69 SIERA for last night’s game. Still want to buy into this?

Martin Perez – 5.0 IP, 1 ER, 6 Hits, 4 BBs, 4 Ks. This is so typical of Perez. Horrible WHIP, five innings, but just 1 ER and put himself in a position to possibly steal a Win (but didn’t). It’s just so dirty.

Edinson Volquez – 4.2 IP, 2 ER, 5 Hits, 4 BBs, 5 Ks. It was a dirty stream choice but it’s a sub 4.00 ERA with 5 Ks…can I call this a wash? Streaming Record: 4-4-2.

Tommy Milone – 5.0 IP, 3 ER, 6 Hits, 0 BBs, 3 Ks. Milone Schmilone. You realize that you technically say Milone twice there. Well you technically don’t need to say that. Wow, what great content Nick. Thanks.

Scott Feldman – 5.0 IP, 2 ER, 4 Hits, 5 BBs, 3 Ks. Feldman Schmeldman. You can’t just go around making the same joke with everyone. But these are the two guys I do it for! Make up your mind. FINE, but we’re going with it today.

Michael Wacha – 6.0 IP, 3 ER, 9 Hits, 2 BBs, 8 Ks. I watched some of this outing from Wacha and wasn’t really digging his schtick. He had some nice Cutters down in the zone, but the consistency I was expecting wasn’t there at all. I have him currently in the 60s and I think he’ll be there for a while.

Kyle Hendricks – 5.0 IP, 3 ER, 6 Hits, 2 BBs, 3 Ks. The season of regression continues, this time against the Pirates. He’s going to have a few good starts though, don’t you worry, and he’s still easily Top 40, but man I feel bad for those expecting another Top 20 season.

JC Ramirez – 5.0 IP, 5 ER, 4 Hits, 2 BBs, 3 Ks. He’s taking the spot in the Angels rotation as Garrett Richards sits on his hotel bed in a permanent shrug pose for what will most likely be a month and there’s not much else to note here. Ramirez is not worth your time.

Tyler Anderson – 4.0 IP, 4 ER, 5 Hits, 1 BBs, 1 Ks. Yeah, Anderson just isn’t going to be a guy I want to own at all this year. In more important news, teammate Jon Gray is out at least four weeks with a stress fracture in his foot. Welcome to the 70s, Gray.

Aaron Sanchez – 5.1 IP, 5 ER, 7 Hits, 1 BBs, 3 Ks. Ahhhh don’t do this to me Sanchez! He got the O’s and they launched a trio of longballs against him. I will be positive and point out the one walk…keep the faith y’all.

Jhoulys Chacin – 5.0 IP, 4 ER, 8 Hits, 4 BBs, 3 Ks. He’ll do well when Jhoulyst expect it. I’ll see myself out.

Trevor Bauer – 5.0 IP, 6 ER, 8 Hits, 2 BBs, 6 Ks. If Bauer ever goes on a solid three game streak this season, don’t forget what he did to start the year. It hurts and makes it so hard to trust.

Zack Greinke – 5.0 IP, 5 ER, 10 Hits, 3 BBs, 4 Ks. This start was looking great out of the gate and went south so quickly. I’m sure some are scared, and I’d take advantage of that. No, Greinke most likely will not be a Top 15 guy this year, but I see him comfortably being Top 40 and there’s a lot of value in that.

Rick Porcello – 4.1 IP, 8 ER, 8 Hits, 2 BBs, 5 Ks. Rut-roh. I wasn’t high on Porcello entering this season, but I wasn’t this low. The Rays roughed him up good and it’s starting to looking more and more like 2015 all over again. I think it’s in owners best interests to hold pat as his price on the market is going to be at it’s lowest now, but if you get a reasonable offer for Porcello, I think I snatch it at this point.

Today’s Streamer

CC Sabathia vs. St. Louis Cardinals – Am I really picking CC? Shudders. Yeah, this is a half point.

Tomorrow’s Streamer

Charlie Morton vs. Oakland Athletics I’m digging Morton’s upped velocity and the A’s will be an easier time than the Mariners for Morton.

Day After Tomorrow’s Streamer

Joe Musgrove vs. Los Angeles Angels – Loving this outing for Musgrove and while he hasn’t been the polished self I hoped for thus far, a start against the Angels can calibrate him quickly.

Jordan Montgomery vs. Chicago White Sox WHAT’S THIS? TWO STREAMERS?! Yeah, I’m doubling down today as Monty gets the White Sox. Don’t love him long term, but I think this can be beneficial if you need a hot start to the week.

Game of the Day

Justin Verlander vs. Corey Kluber – I feel bad for Verlander getting paired up against aces left-and-right but boy do I enjoy watching it each time.

Nick Pollack

Founder of Pitcher List. Creator of CSW, The List, and SP Roundup. Worked with MSG, FanGraphs, CBS Sports, and Washington Post. Former college pitcher, travel coach, pitching coach, and Brandeis alum. Wants every pitcher to be dope.

2 responses to “Keuchel’in It”

  1. J says:

    Are you concerned at all with Aaron Sanchez’s drop in velocity in this game? Based on the #’s I’ve seen, all of his pitches were down about 2mph from where he typically is.

  2. Manley Ramirez says:

    Could it be Duffy has just learned to pitch? Isn’t 93 good enough for a lefty? Hard to buy in to the doomsday stuff or discount Angels too much, they have plenty of decent contact hitters.

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