What are your thoughts on Moneyball, the movie? Not the book, not the ideology, just the film. For me, it is a comfort movie any time of year, even while recognizing it for the dramatization and incomplete narrative that it is. The idea that undervalued players were once so “easy” to find, relative to today, makes for a nostalgia-fueled ride and a comfortable story. The scene that sets the tone early is the Athletics’ player acquisition brain trust crammed into that ramshackle conference room, both before and after Jonah Hill walks in.
But there is one detail I keep getting stuck on: the board that houses the team’s targets. All those magnets with names written on them are for naught once Brad Pitt starts naming his own players, scribbling them on blank magnets and tossing them haphazardly onto the board behind him, to the disgust and protest of nearly everyone in the room. It sets the tone, sure, but it also planted a seed in my brain that I have yet to nurture: I want a board like that.
Spreadsheets and rankings pulled up in browser tabs are more feasible and accessible, but the thought of walking into a draft with a physical board scratches a minute itch of mine. I want to watch names come off as picks are made, shuffling the magnets accordingly, all while honing in on the guys I am not sure anyone else has on their board but who are absolutely worthy of occupying one of mine.
Every first-year player draft has those players, the ones far down the board who could make or break a draft. That applies doubly in deep leagues, where starting at first overall could mean you will not pick again until the mid-teens, and the gap compounds with each round. Long after names like shortstop Grady Emerson or catcher Vahn Lackey are gone, the safe picks get farther and farther apart, and that is where a dynasty manager’s mettle really gets tested.
So let’s say the late-round lottery tickets are the only ones left to scratch. Which direction should you go? These are the players I have my eyes on as FYPDs loom on the offseason calendar.
2026 (NCAA): 262 AB | .393/.500/.615 | .222 ISO | 15.1% K% | 14.8% BB% | 9 HR | 87 RBI | 18 SB
2026 (High-A): 98 AB | .337/.436/.531 | .194 ISO | 14.5% K% | 13.7% BB% | 149 wRC+ | 3 HR | 20 RBI | 1 SB
From here on out, the order of these players doesn’t represent my conviction or how high I would draft these players. However, if there is one magnet on my board I would add immediately, it belongs to outfielder Owen Hull.
He took the scenic route in college, spending two seasons at George Mason before transferring to North Carolina, where he hit .393/.500/.615 and walked (48 times) nearly as often as he struck out (49). Boston grabbed him with the 67th pick this past summer, signed him under slot, and sent him straight to High-A Greenville, challenging the draftee from the jump. He responded with a 149 wRC+ over 24 games and a 90th percentile exit velocity of 105.1 mph, one of the highest thus far from this draft class. The calling cards are ones that have translated well from college to affiliated ball; he controls the zone, he makes hard contact, and he runs well enough to be a basestealing threat.
The catch is the outcome and direction of all that hard contact. Hull put 57.9% of his batted balls on the ground in High-A, and his swing does not naturally lift the ball, which leaves him closer to a left fielder with fringe in-game power than a true center fielder bat if nothing changes. That is the bet, though, and Boston has made a habit of adding bat speed and loft to college hitters in recent years. In 5×5 formats, the floor is batting average, OBP, runs and steals with modest home run totals, and the ceiling is a 20/20 corner outfielder if Hull and his support system tweak his swing sooner rather than later. Just look at his swing here in his debut.
Hull is still far away from the big-league picture, of course, just like any on this list. But Hull is one of those players who feels so close to being one of those breakout players we see rocket up prospect boards, especially if the batter-favorable environment continues in the minor leagues.
C/1B/DH Carson Tinney, Minnesota Twins
2026 (NCAA): 218 AB | .326/.483/.688 | .362 ISO | 23.1% K% | 19.2% BB% | 22 HR | 58 RBI | 10 SB
2026 (Low-A): 79 AB | .203/.400/.532 | .329 ISO | 26.7% K% | 21.9% BB% | 143 wRC+ | .341 xwOBA | 8 HR | 15 RBI | 1 SB
While catcher Vahn Lackey will likely be off the board quickly in many FYPDs, the Minnesota Twins drafted another player 40 slots later that should exceed expectations in 2027 and beyond.
Carson Tinney’s profile is about as subtle as a pickup truck. He hit 22 home runs at Texas after transferring from Notre Dame, carries legitimate 70-grade raw power, and has posted exit velocities north of 116 mph. He also walks a ton, which was on full display at Low-A Fort Myers, where he drew walks at a 21.9% clip and hit eight homers in just 24 games. The .203 average looks ugly until you notice a .186 BABIP propping it up, and he closed the season on a tear, slashing .333/.484/.917 over his final two weeks.
The concern has never been the power. It is whether he makes enough contact to get to it, after a whiff rate above 40% in the Cape in 2025 and a 26.7% strikeout rate in his debut. But there is some context from 2026 that makes me feel better about him moving forward, especially he only chased pitches at a 17% clip in Low-A and made contact on those swings more often than not. I think he is primed for a jump to High-A next season, where a test against pitchers with true swing-and-miss stuff in the zone will be the true test. He was allowed to be passive in Low-A, only swinging 33% of the time, while posting a 77.8% contact rate on pitches in the zone. That is palatable for such a power profile. It is wild to think that he had a 42.9% fly ball rate, while still having a 38.1% home run-to-fly ball ratio. That is the kind of power that leaves broadcasters guessing when a ball is in the air.
Carson Tinney hits his THIRD homer in his last four games at Low-A 💣
The @TexasBaseball product + Twins’ second-rounder ranks No. 10 in Minnesota’s system.
(🎥@MightyMussels) https://t.co/wefoWujJb0
— Baseball America (@BaseballAmerica) August 23, 2026
Do not draft him as your future catcher, either. He spent most of his debut at designated hitter and first base, and with Lackey in the same system, the catching path is certainly crowded. The best-case outcome is a bigger version of Hunter Goodman: a slugger who costs you batting average but pays you back in home runs, RBI and walks. He fits best in OBP and points leagues, where his patience plays up, and he is a fine late-round swing in any league.
OF Hayden Yost, Seattle Mariners
2026 (NCAA): 107 AB | .262/.369/.589 | .327 ISO | 16.0% K% | 9.2% BB% | 10 HR | 23 RBI | 3 SB
2026 (Low-A): 94 AB | .298/.404/.596 | .298 ISO | 22.8% K% | 13.2% BB% | 143 wRC+ | 7 HR | 25 RBI | 1 SB
It doesn’t often feel like a manager can say a collegiate draftee doesn’t have a long track record to know for sure what type of player they are, but that might apply to Hayden Yost.
Yost was a fifth-round pick out of Florida who signed for $415,000, and he barely registered on pre-draft rankings. The family name may ring a bell, since his younger brother Jordan went in the first round to Detroit back in 2025. Hayden’s path was much bumpier. He tore his ACL late in his freshman season, hit .264 across his college career, and then flipped a switch late in 2026, hitting all 10 of his home runs over his last 24 starts. But that late-career push pushed him onto draft boards, and here he stands as a possible dynasty asset.
Seattle saw something in that finish, and Yost carried it into pro ball. He posted a 143 wRC+ with seven homers in 24 games at Low-A Inland Empire, plus a .404 OBP. I would pump the brakes before calling it a breakout. A 30.4% HR/FB rate is not going to hold, and his strikeout rate climbed from 16% in college to nearly 22.8% in pro ball. If there is any consolation, the walk-to-strikeout ratio remained nearly identical, thanks to his 13.2% walk rate in Low-A. While the home run rate doesn’t feel sustainable for Yost, it was powered by a 107 MPH 90th percentile exit velocity and pulling the ball plenty. Prospect Savant published that Yost had a 20% pull-air rate this past season, good for the level’s 70th percentile.
The Mariners have a real test here with their player development track record, but Yost has above-average speed, and there is enough of a power and speed combination to matter in 5×5 if the bat holds up. He is a final-round flier or a free agent stash in leagues that roster 300 or more prospects, and if he does this again at High-A Everett, your leaguemates will be scrambling for him.
LHP Mason Edwards, Athletics
2026 (NCAA): 17 GS | 95.2 IP | 2.07 ERA | 2.26 FIP | 42.7% K% | 11.9% BB%
2026 (FCL): No stats reported.
Here is a fun bit of symmetry. When the Athletics drafted Mason Edwards 47th overall, their scouting director compared him to Barry Zito, the lefty who won the Cy Young in 2002, the same season Moneyball dramatizes, despite being little more than a background figure in the film. Edwards earned the comparison honestly, and it sets a high-bar comparison for him in dynasty.
The USC lefty led the nation with 169 strikeouts in 2026, struck out 42.7% of the hitters he faced, and collected Big Ten Pitcher of the Year (still feels dirty to think a California team is in the Big Ten) and first-team All-American honors along the way. He did it with a riding fastball in the low 90s that touches 95 or 96, thrown from a steep, over-the-top slot, alongside a curveball that is the best pitch in the package and an above-average changeup. There is a lot of movement in his arsenal, even if the pure velocity isn’t a calling card.
The walks are what keep him on the late part of many boards. Edwards posted a walk rate ranging from 10.2%-11.9% in his three collegiate seasons, and without premium velocity, he does not have much margin for error. Hopefully the Athletics aren’t playing in such a hitter-friendly park if he reaches the big leagues either.
He did not log an official pro inning after signing, like many pitchers coming off a full season of work, so his first professional season will tell us a lot. For fantasy purposes, the strikeouts are bankable, the WHIP is the risk, and the polish of a college arm means he could arrive as soon as 2028 or 2029. Of the pitchers in this group, he is my favorite target in later rounds.
RHP Cameron Flukey, Detroit Tigers
2026 (NCAA): 7 GS | 24.0 IP | 4.13 ERA | 4.56 FIP | 30.7% K% | 8.9% BB%
2026 (Low-A): 4 GS | 10.1 IP | 0.00 ERA | 3.96 FIP | 34.1% K% | 17.1% BB% | 30.2% CSW%
I cannot explain why, but I have seen Flukey falling down draft rankings, including Baseball America putting him in the bottom half of their latest Top 100 dynasty rankings. I don’t have a good feel for whether that fall will continue into your FYPD, but if he gets lost in your league’s shuffle, you better call his name.
Flukey went 22nd overall to Detroit, the highest draft pick in Coastal Carolina history, and at 6-foot-6, he has the frame of a pitcher who should handle a starter’s workload. His 2026 season did not go to plan, though. A rib stress fracture in his first start cost him 10 weeks, and he made only seven starts, posting a 4.13 ERA with 31 strikeouts and nine walks in 24 innings. That uneven spring, plus a crowded class of college arms, is likely the factor pushing him down draft boards, even if that wasn’t the case this past summer.
Thankfully, pro ball went better. Flukey threw 10.1 scoreless innings across four starts at Low-A Lakeland, striking out a third of the hitters he faced while sitting around 94 mph and touching 97. The fastball is the headliner, with Detroit praising how well he commands it to all four quadrants, and a downer curveball does the rest.
Overall, Flukey got better as the affiliated innings piled up, including a four-inning season finale that saw him fan six, record 10 whiffs, and a 39.2% CSW. That will absolutely play.
Again, I am only putting him in the late-round conversation because that is how I have seen some early drafting or rankings shake out. I have him solidly in my top 25 FYPD targets, because he belongs there especially after the abbreviated look in Low-A. If he slips past that into the territory of round four or later, scoop him up and watch him work.
RHP Carson Wiggins, New York Mets
2025 (NCAA): 0 GS | 14.0 IP | 3.21 ERA | 2.98 FIP | 33.9% K% | 15.3% BB%
2026 (FCL): No stats reported.
There is no player in this class with a wider range of outcomes than Carson Wiggins, and the Mets bet the 27th pick on it anyway. Wiggins threw exactly 14 innings at Arkansas, all of them in relief as a freshman in 2025, before tearing his UCL and undergoing Tommy John surgery with an internal brace. He did not pitch at all in 2026.
Yet when he was healthy, he averaged 99 mph and touched 102, with late carry that might make it the best fastball in the entire class. At the Draft Combine in June, he threw 15 pitches and topped out at 97.4 mph, and that was enough for the Mets to pay him full slot. The bloodlines are big-time too, since his older brother Jaxon is one of the Chicago Cubs’ best pitching prospects.
The rest of the arsenal is a work in progress: an upper-80s slider, a mid-80s changeup, and a curveball he added during his rehab. He walked 15.3% of the hitters he faced at Arkansas, and he still has to prove he can command the fastball and land the slider consistently. Still, his 74% swing-and-miss rate on that pitch back in 2025 was elite, but that was almost two years ago. What Wiggins is now, hopefully, that picture will begin to fill in early next season.
If the command gets to average, he has the stuff of a No. 3 starter. If it does not, he could be a dominant closer, and in dynasty, saves are not a bad consolation prize. He did not throw an official pitch in pro ball, so early 2027 velocity and strike-throwing reports will move his value more than anything I can tell you today. He belongs on deep-league benches with room to wait, but for deeper leagues, he is the perfect boom-or-bust pick to target in late rounds.
