It's been yet another successful season for Marco Estrada who is now pushing a double digit K/9 following Sunday evening's 7.2 IP, 1 ER, 5 Hits, 1 BBs, 12 Ks start against the Orioles. We're talking a 10.05 mark with a super low 2.30 BB/9 and 3.30 ERA to boot. Those are super studly numbers and I'm sure you didn't expect Marco freakin' Estrada to be boasting them. So what changed? Estrada barely touches his Cutter now, a pitch he threw over 600 times last season, in favor of more Four-Seamers, which had their whiff rates spike from a paltry 6.0% in 2016 to 9.7% this season. He's turning to the pitch with two strikes, allowing him to take advantage of its 33.5% O-Swing rate, where he previous relied on his Curveball against right-handers, which wasn't all too effective before. Will this whiff rate last through the year? Maybe, maybe not. I'm leaning no and I think Estrada is still a 8.50 K/9 or so arm - which is solid - but not this legit fantasy stud type. However, if he can keep that walk rate down below 2.50 BB/9 for the year, there's no reason he won't be Top 30 or even higher.
Let’s see how every other SP did yesterday:
Would you start all two start Duffy/Vargas @ NYY and Clev and JC Ram @ TB and Miami?
Depends on my matchup, if I didn’t need all six starts/I wanted to be a little conservative, I’d start Duffy + JC and sit Vargas.
If I could, I’d just bench Vargas for the NYY start.
This article says you plan to avoid Triggs against the Yankees later this week, while your “starting pitcher matchups” article (maybe written before yesterday’s game?) says he is a “start” for that game. I’m planning my week and having a tough time deciding if he is essentially a streamer for the rest of the season or still deserves a roster spot while I improve my somewhat weak rotation. Nice site…helping me a lot so far.
Well, I think this start against the Red Sox changes things a bit as the matchups articles was written yesterday morning. If I re-did that one, I’d have Triggs listed as a “Maybe”.
I think he is worth a roster spot, just a small bump this week and then back on track.
Glad you like the site!
Nola v Cincy or Gray v Miami
Nola, easily.
Would you prefer German over Corbin?
Yes, simply because I have more short term conviction in Marquez. With these guys, that’s all that really matters.