Meyer Sell

I often try to pinpoint who I think the most popular adds of the day will be and after Alex Meyer went 6.0 IP, 0 ER, 3 Hits, 4 BBs,...

I often try to pinpoint who I think the most popular adds of the day will be and after Alex Meyer went 6.0 IP, 0 ER, 3 Hits, 4 BBs, 9 Ks against the Tigers yesterday, I’d imagine many of you wonder if he’s worth your time. I’ve been labeling Meyer as a strikeout first, ask later kind of arm, where you can’t depend on his WHIP/ERA being in the realm of decent. Now he’s allowed just five ER across his last four starts – good enough for a 2.01 ERA in that span – and that’s obviously impressive. Pair that with a 10.88 K/9 and there’s clear value, even if it came with a 5.5 IPS. Problem here is that his walk rate is never going to be good, hosting 4.00+ marks everywhere you look. His current 6.11 BB/9 is all kinds of atrocious and should fall to some degree, but it won’t come down far enough to make me think he can do deep enough into games, keep any sort of low WHIP, and escape plenty of jams to save his ERA. Yes those Ks are nice, but there’s too much risk here to chase. And that’s not even mentioning his sub 15% soft contact allowed!

Let’s see how every other SP did yesterday:

Clayton Kershaw – 7.0 IP, 1 ER, 3 Hits, 3 BBs, 9 Ks. Aces gonna ace. Duh.

CC Sabathia – 8.0 IP, 0 ER, 5 Hits, 0 BBs, 5 Ks. Well hot damn Sabathia. I didn’t believe you could keep this going given the ton of hard contact and supposed luck in your four start run. But there you are, cruisin’ against the Red Sox like it’s USA. I’m all for rolling with Sabathia against the Angels, Athletics and Rangers next.

Mike Foltynewicz – 7.0 IP, 0 ER, 4 Hits, 2 BBs, 4 Ks. Alright Folty, alright. Do I think he can do this often? Nah. Do I think he should be rostered? Ehhh not really. Will he be a streamer again? Yep. Streamer Record 30-19-10.

Buck Farmer – 6.2 IP, 0 ER, 3 Hits, 1 BBs, 5 Ks. The Secondary Call Boy yesterday was Barmer, who gave another solid outing after an 11 strikeout game in his last start. Do I think he’s a worthy add in a 12-teamer? Ehhh, not my favorite of the Fresh Produce (I need a term for all these new arms that are giving sneaky production ala Joe Biagini, Zack Godleyetc., so maybe Fresh Produce, i.e. new production? Not loving it, let me know if you have possible term in the comments) and in his previous start, he relied on his Changeup 40%+ of the time, making me a bit of a believer. This time? Under 15%. He still had success, but that first start was a major anomaly and I’m not too confident with Barmer against better teams, like the Diamondbacks if he were to stick til then.

Yu Darvish – 7.1 IP, 3 ER, 3 Hits, 1 BBs, 9 Ks. Aces gonna ace. Just give me one fewer ER next time, okay Darvish?

Stephen Strasburg – 6.0 IP, 1 ER, 3 Hits, 1 BBs, 8 Ks. Aces gonna ace. You may see a 9.97 K/9 and be a little disappointed after years of 10.96 and 11.15 marks. Then you realize he’s averaging 7.4 Ks per start, where 2015 had a 6.7 clip and 7.6 in 2016. It’s almost like he’s going deeper into games and pitching better…

Jacob Faria – 6.1 IP, 1 ER, 3 Hits, 2 BBs, 5 Ks. Faria looked more polished than we normally see from MLB debuts, but there isn’t much value here in standard leagues – Matt Andriese is most likely returning this weekend and pushing Faria out of the rotation. Womp womp.

Zack Wheeler – 7.0 IP, 1 ER, 6 Hits, 3 BBs, 5 Ks. Solid, though the walks are preventing me from getting on board here. We’re waiting for that one start to make us all run to the wire and own Wheeler. It could happen, but he’s also at the point where it could teeter the other way as well.

Kyle Freeland – 6.1 IP, 1 ER, 6 Hits, 0 BBs, 5 Ks. Freeland is as big of a TEEs you’ll find, with a 3.60 BB/9, 4.56 FIP and 4.69 xFIP but a 3.34 ERA. Match that with home games in Coors and I find it hard to be confident in Freeland.

Lance Lynn – 5.0 IP, 1 ER, 3 Hits, 2 BBs, 4 Ks. Sure, this is fine, though I still worry about his 4.85 FIP, 4.31 xFIP, .201 BABIP and 85.0% LOB rate. A 3.41 BB/9 isn’t helping either.

Chad Kuhl – 5.0 IP, 1 ER, 4 Hits, 4 BBs, 4 Ks. Kuhl story, bro. We’re a long way from trusting Chad.

Adalberto Mejia – 5.0 IP, 3 ER, 2 Hits, 3 BBs, 5 Ks. It’s just so…blegh.

Jason Vargas – 5.0 IP, 2 ER, 6 Hits, 1 BBs, 5 Ks. Meh, I guess I’m fine with it and doesn’t really change things either way. Keep rolling with Vargas for now.

Jimmy Nelson – 6.0 IP, 3 ER, 7 Hits, 1 BBs, 6 Ks. Awwww, I really wanted Nelson to explode again, you know? A two-run shot from Buster Posey put a damper on this one, though I love seeing just one walk here from Nelson, while the strikeouts are still alive. Continue on this journey and don’t stop believing. 

Jose Urena – 5.0 IP, 3 ER, 3 Hits, 3 BBs, 5 Ks. If you start Jose, Urena a boatload of trouble.

Yovani Gallardo – 7.0 IP, 5 ER, 6 Hits, 2 BBs, 6 Ks. Gallardo is on the Anti-List and I’ve yet to see a reason to kick him off it.

Jharel Cotton – 6.0 IP, 4 ER, 4 Hits, 4 BBs, 4 Ks. I didn’t realize Cotton was a Star Wars fan! May the Fours be with you. Atrociously bad jokes aside, I’m waiting to see 0-1 walk games from Cotton before relying on him in any capacity.

Jerad Eickhoff – 5.0 IP, 3 ER, 4 Hits, 1 BBs, 4 Ks. This was against the Barves and while the WHIP is good, four Ks are meh, five innings are low, and 3 ER are bad. I don’t want to touch Eickhoff for a while.

Zack Greinke – 5.0 IP, 3 ER, 7 Hits, 1 BBs, 8 Ks. 100 pitches through five frames against the Padres? Greinke, you’re so much better than this – and I’m saying this when you struck out eight!

Mike Pelfrey – 5.1 IP, 2 ER, 6 Hits, 3 BBs, 4 Ks. Go away Pelfrey.

Francisco Liriano – 5.0 IP, 3 ER, 6 Hits, 1 BBs, 5 Ks. This is the least boom/bust start I can think of. I wasn’t feeling like myself today, Nick. Liriano, GO BIG OR GO HOME. Okay…*walks out the door*.

John Lackey – 6.0 IP, 5 ER, 7 Hits, 0 BBs, 6 Ks. Do I still believe there’s a light at the end of this tunnel? Yes. Do I think you should be holding on for that time to come? No.

Dayan Diaz – 2.2 IP, 3 ER, 4 Hits, 0 BBs, 3 Ks. This is a standard Cup of Schmo affair as Keuchel was scratched last minute with an “illness” and the Astros needed someone to start. Move along.

Bronson Arroyo – 5.2 IP, 4 ER, 8 Hits, 2 BBs, 4 Ks. With Weaver on the DL, this was Arroyo’s chance to get back in the GQSB 2.0. Then again, even when Weaver is pitching, it’s still Arroyo’s chance to get back in the game.

Rick Porcello – 6.1 IP, 5 ER, 8 Hits, 2 BBs, 5 Ks. Blegh. Porcello did head to the Bronx, which is a terrible dating spot.

Ty Blach – 6.0 IP, 5 ER, 9 Hits, 0 BBs, 3 Ks. This is why we didn’t pick up Blach after his stellar CGSHO last time out.

Trevor Bauer – 3.1 IP, 4 ER, 5 Hits, 5 BBs, 3 Ks. I get a ton of questions about Bauer – how could I not with that xFIP and elite K rate? – and it’s starts like these that make concerned to own him. Yes, it was in Coors, but that’s still five walks to his name.

Luis Perdomo – 4.0 IP, 5 ER, 5 Hits, 4 BBs, 1 Ks. Coors Lite is no joke, though four walks and just one strikeout can’t be blamed on the Arizona home field. I think Perdomo has more talent than his stats have been showing, though I don’t like the idea of investing in him in a 12 teamer until he shows some consistency to express that upside.

Wade Miley – 2.2 IP, 4 ER, 8 Hits, 2 BBs, 4 Ks. Miley, Stop being so Wily! I was shocked to see Miley was owned in 30%+ teams on ESPN. Jeeeeeeeez.

Today’s Streamer

German Marquez vs. Chicago Cubs I don’t like this one, but I need a streamer and everything else is bad news. It’s Tyler Chatwood instead of Marquez and I just wouldn’t do it. No streamers today, y’all. Not even Scott Feldman against the Cardinals.

Tomorrow’s Streamer

Randall Delgado vs. Milwaukee Brewers This is a tough call, but I think I’ll go with Delgado and his solid approach against the Brew Crew.

Day After Tomorrow’s Streamer

Jeff Hoffman vs. Chicago Cubs – Hoffman has the stuff to show up in Wrigley and light up the scoreboard.

Game of the Day

David Price vs. Michael Pineda Will Pineda stop chucking longballs? Will Price be a stud again?

Nick Pollack

Founder of Pitcher List. Creator of CSW, The List, and SP Roundup. Worked with MSG, FanGraphs, CBS Sports, and Washington Post. Former college pitcher, travel coach, pitching coach, and Brandeis alum. Wants every pitcher to be dope.

31 responses to “Meyer Sell”

  1. Jeff says:

    Would you let go of Lackey for Straily?

  2. Mike says:

    How low are we on JC Ramirez? Both for today and for the long-term

    • Nick Pollack says:

      I think he’s more a streaming candidate than someone I’d want to consistently own these days.

      I’d hold back on starting him today against the Tigers.

  3. chrish011 says:

    I have DeGrom in another league and really don’t know what to make of him, and wanna know if I should trade for him in a different league. Or should I target Arrieta? Just feel DG would be cheaper because of Arrieta’s recent play, but who will be better at years end? Give it to me straight because I’m almost willing to trade him in the league I have him in.

    • Nick Pollack says:

      deGrom’s upside is larger than Arrieta’s given Jacob’s incredibly whiff rates and increased velocity.

      I believe more in deGrom for your playoffs.

  4. ragnospam says:

    Just put Salazar on DL, dropped Lackey and picked up Peacock and Biagini based on the buzz in your top 100. Hoping one or both of them can pan out.

  5. Ryan says:

    Regarding the nickname for new arms, how about “New kids on the block”.

  6. Chucky says:

    Has Manea settled in as a set and forget kind of guy? Not wild and crazy about his next start at home v the NYY. Have Hoffman v SF, Guerra @ StL and Godley @ Philly looking pretty sweet. Thoughts?

    • Nick Pollack says:

      For the most part, yeah I think so.

      He did well against the Yankees last week and I think the odds are in our favor he’ll do well again.

      I like Godley as well, though Hoffman against the Cubs is a little more of a reluctant of a green light. Guerra is my least favorite of the bunch but if you need the arm, I imagine him vs STL might be better than others on the wire.

  7. Steven Dowdy says:

    I kind of like fresh produce! or how about NEW E.R.A.?

    • Nick Pollack says:

      I like the idea here, I’d prefer not to use an actual brand though.

      I think we haven’t come up with the perfect name yet. Lightning will strike soon, I’m sure of it.

  8. David Johnston says:

    The lowest rank of Jedi is a “Youngling”….they are taught to control the force….

    • Nick Pollack says:

      Ha! Well, we already have Young Guns and I think we’ll keep that one as the only term with “young” in it.

      • David Johnston says:

        Fair enough….

        I’ll try again “Wannabes”

        Wannabe definition, one who aspires, often vainly, to emulate another’s success or attain eminence in some area.

        • Nick Pollack says:

          I think there’s something here.

          Maybe a “Spice Girl”?

          I.e. Someone who could fade from the public eye fast (sporty spice) or stick around for a while (posh spice).

          Good stuff.

  9. Matt Nielsen says:

    What are the odds Hoffman stays up for good sometime this year? And where would you put him on the list of that were to happen?

    • Nick Pollack says:

      If Hoffman had a rotation spot locked right now, I’d have him in the 50s/60s. Coors is a dangerous place.

      I think he will eventually, either with a bad stretch from Freeland/Senz-a/Marquez or another injury popping up that forces their hand. Maybe late July?

  10. Max says:

    Greinke was super unlucky yesterday. Peralta blew a line drive and it turned into a triple (should really have been an error). That cascaded and ended up costing him an earned run and about 30 pitches. Without that he would have been through 3 with 1ER and 30 pitches. Instead it was 2ER and almost 60 pitches. Tough. Definitely not excusing him entirely but I think he could easily have had a 7 IP 2ER 10K line.

    • Nick Pollack says:

      I’m with you here. I wasn’t planning on docking Greinke for yesterday’s outing.

      • Max says:

        You are a wise man. BTW on a scale of 1-10 how much you liking Hoffman in Wrigley? Very random question but just wanted to get a sense of whether you think its a risk worth taking given the right circumstances, or if you actually think he is likely to have a plus outing.

  11. Morgan Cross says:

    As far as rookies that produce, I saw we give a nod to Jose Fernandez and call them “JoFers” because he was definitely a rookie that produced.

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