Mid-Season Fantasy Baseball Prospect Rankings – 1st Base

(Photo by Mark LoMoglio/Icon Sportswire)

Today marks the fourth day of an 11 article special that is designed to help get you all caught up and informed on MLB prospects for your fantasy baseball leagues. I am a day late on my articles, but will work them into a revised schedule. My colleague Adam Garland and I are going to be releasing mid-season top prospect lists for every position and we will release our lists on the following schedule:

Top 30 Catchers
Top 30 1st Basemen
Top 30 2nd Basemen
Top 30 Shortstops
Top 30 3rd Basemen
Top 25 Outfielders
Top 50 Outfielders
Top 150 Overall Hitters
Top 150 Overall Pitchers
Adam’s Disagreements – July 23rd
Brennen’s Disagreements – July 24th

We have included a rough prime projection for each player as well as an estimated ETA. We tried not to include players that have cemented roles in the majors at the time of this writing, so guys like Juan Soto and Mike Soroka will not be included. Note that we place an emphasis on upside, namely power and speed guys, while also prioritizing closeness to the majors when the value is close. Feel free to ask questions or drop a comment, we are always happy to discuss! Without further ado, onto the list!

Rank	Player	Organization	Level	Age	Projection	ETA
1.	Jake Bauers	Tampa Bay Rays	MLB/AAA	22	.270 AVG / 15 HR / 15 SB	Now
2.	Peter Alonso	New York Mets	AAA	23	.300 AVG / 30 HR / 1 SB	2019
3.	Yordan Alvarez	Houston Astros	AAA	20	.290 AVG / 20 HR / 5 SB	2020
4.	Chad Spanberger	Colorado Rockies	A	22	.280 AVG / 30 HR / 15 SB	2020
5.	Matt Thaiss	Los Angeles Angels	AAA	23	.280 AVG / 18 HR / 2 SB	2018
6.	Pavin Smith	Arizona Diamondbacks	A+	22	.310 AVG / 13 HR / 2 SB	2020
7.	Brendan McKay	Tampa Bay Rays	A	22	.260 AVG / 10 HR / 1 SB	2020
8.	Josh Naylor	San Diego Padres	AA	21	.275 AVG / 20 HR / 5 SB	2019
9.	Evan White	Seattle Mariners	AAA	22	.290 AVG / 15 HR / 4 SB	2020
10.	Frank Schwindel	Kansas City Royals	AAA	26	.285 AVG / 22 HR / 0 SB	2018
11.	Edwin Rios	Los Angeles Dodgers	AAA	24	.275 AVG / 19 HR / 0 SB	2018
12.	Lewin Diaz	Minnesota Twins	A	21	.265 AVG / 22 HR / 1 SB	2020
13.	Nick Pratto	Kansas City Royals	A	19	.270 AVG / 20 HR / 10 SB	2021
14.	Ryan Costello	Seattle Mariners	A	22	.270 AVG / 18 HR / 1 SB	2021
15.	Kevin Cron	Arizona Diamondbacks	AAA	25	.275 AVG / 26 HR / 1 SB	2019
16.	Roberto Ramos	Colorado Rockies	AA	23	.280 AVG / 24 HR / 2 SB	2020
17.	Brent Rooker	Minnesota Twins	AA	23	.260 AVG / 16 HR / 1 SB	2020
18.	Bobby Bradley	Cleveland Indians	AA	22	.245 AVG / 28 HR / 1 SB	2019
19.	Nathaniel Lowe	Tampa Bay Rays	AA	22	.275 AVG / 15 HR / 1 SB	2019
20.	Darick Hall	Philadelphia Phillies	AA	22	.260 AVG / 21 HR / 0 SB	2020
21.	Triston Casas	Boston Red Sox	R	18	.265 AVG / 20 HR / 2 SB	2022
22.	Ibandel Isabel	Cincinnati Reds	A+	23	.230 AVG / 30 HR / 0 SB	2020
23.	Will Craig	Pittsburgh Pirates	AA	23	.260 AVG / 15 HR / 2 SB	2019
24.	Seth Beer	Houston Astros	A	21	.260 AVG / 28 HR / 0 SB	2020
25.	Josh Ockimey	Boston Red Sox	AA	22	.250 AVG / 10 HR / 0 SB	2019
26.	Garrett Cooper	Miami Marlins	AAA/MLB	27	.270 AVG / 10 HR / 0 SB	2019
27.	Luken Baker	St. Louis Cardinals	TBD	21	.255 AVG / 19 HR / 0 SB	2020
28.	Brian Mundell	Colorado Rockies	AA	24	.280 AVG / 9 HR / 0 SB	2019
29.	Zach Green	Philadelphia Phillies	AA	24	.265 AVG / 13 HR / 0 SB	2019
30.	Josh Fuentes	Colorado Rockies	AAA	25	.275 AVG / 10 HR / 8 SB	2019

Brennen’s Thoughts:

• While most prospect first baseman do not always turn out as such given the MLB propensity to slide an aging veteran to the corner, but the few that make it to the MLB at the position are generally something special.
• Having found his power stroke, Peter Alonso has rocketed himself from marginally useful to a potential staple of the future Mets offense. Although his true stride is found in his walk rate, which he has raised over 11% since last season, giving him an OBP of .440 in 273 plate appearances in Double-A this season. He was since promoted to Triple-A and although the sample size is small, has carried many of those gains with him.
• As far as “the next Paul Goldschmidt” goes, Chad Spanberger will be giving other first baseman a run for their money. In 76 games this season, Spanberger has hit 21 home runs (second for minor league first basemen), stolen 14 bases, and is currently batting .308. While this is only in Single-A ball, few players have demonstrated the immense upside Spanberger has this season. His 4.8% walk rate does prevent him from getting on base at an elite rate, but he checks every other box. He could be my top first baseman by the start of next season.
• Brendan McKay is the player I will be most likely to drop, while he does have first base eligibility I think this future lies as a pitcher and the notion of a two-way player will cool down by the time he is ready for MLB play.
• Speaking of Paul Goldschmidt, I will be interested to see what the Arizona Diamondbacks do with Kevin Cron who has been nothing short of unstoppable since 2015. Goldschmidt has a club option left next year before he is set to hit free agency. Cron would waste away in Triple-A if the Diamondbacks hold him on the line that long, but would make for a great starter on any team in need.
• Roberto Ramos is another Colorado Rockies prospect and is the only player above Chad Spanberger in first baseman home runs with 22 on the season. Recently promoted to Double-A, Ramos was hitting .304 and sported a .411 OBP in A+.
• I struggle with the notion of that the fly-ball revolution is here to stay and the implications it has on the strikeout/run ratio – Bobby Bradley is living that as a prospect with a 25% strikeout rate (it was in the 30s when I started my rankings), but has hit 16 home runs this season. For fantasy purposes, I do not think Bradley will pan out to be an above-average first baseman, but with his power will find some degree of relevance if he can hit with more consistency.
• Similarly, Ibandel Isabel is striking out at a 34.9% rate, but has 19 home runs. Do I think he’ll be able to translate that above A+? Probably not, but the feat itself is worthy of keeping an eye on his ceiling — and his floor.
• I am skeptical of Seth Beer not for his bat, but because of whether his defense is so atrocious that even first base cannot contain it. He has done well since getting drafted this season and has already earned a promotion. Beer has the pedigree to succeed, being the only freshman ever to win the College Player of the Year, but he has a great chance of moving up this list.