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Minor League Pitcher Grades: The Best Arms in the Minors Week 4

Let's take a look on the farm, including some debuted arms.

Jacob Milham
Dynasty 5/19/2026

Keeping tabs on your current baseball dynasty pitching options is hard enough. Looking for the next diamond in the rough on the minor-league side is a job all by itself. Thanks to PLV, we can look at some arms of note and the pitching prospects doing the most in 2026.

With that in mind, let’s take a look at some Triple-A standouts from the season so far and check in on a Top 100 arm.

Check out the card tool at: https://milb-pitch-analysis-card.streamlit.app/ and other tools at: https://pitcherlist.com/pl-pro-tools-hub/

 

Top 100 Prospect Spotlight

 

Jonah Tong, New York Mets
2026 Stats: 9 GS | 38.0 IP | 5.68 ERA | 5.41 FIP | 32.7% K% | 14.3% BB% | 27.6% CSW%
Last Week: 1.2 IP | 32.40 ERA | 5 H | 6 ER | 3 BB | 3 K

 

Jonah Tong is a Canadian-born righty nicknamed the Canadian Cannon who led the minors in strikeouts in 2025 and is doing it again in 2026. The last week’s data looks bad, led by three home runs and a 37.5% barrel rate, but that window is catching his early-April blowup against Toledo, not what he has been doing lately. On May 2, he took a no-hitter into the sixth. On May 8, he struck out eight. There are flashes of the prospect New York Mets fans hoped would be helping the rotation by now, but the consistency is not there for the young Tong.

The season shows a 32.7% strikeout rate, a .336 wOBA against that matches his .338 xwOBA almost exactly, a .002 gap that confirms his results are earned, not lucky. The four-seamer at 94.9 mph is his primary weapon at 48.2% usage with a 28.7% whiff rate and 6.67 feet of extension that makes it play up at the top of the zone. The changeup at 85.9 mph has a 40.3% whiff rate across 153 pitches. PLV does not love the cambio, but the results are pretty hard to ignore. His 2,265 rpm four-seamer generates elite riding life, and the changeup’s 12-plus mph velocity separation off that fastball makes the tunnel genuinely difficult to solve.

The new cutter (15.7% usage, 23.1% whiff) is the development story of 2026. Tong spent the offseason adding it specifically to bridge the gap between his fastball and his big 12-6 curveball, and it is doing exactly that, giving him a 90 mph intermediate option that keeps right-handed hitters from sitting on the change. The five-pitch profile at 22 years old with a wOBA-xwOBA gap of only .002 is the most encouraging analytical signal in his season.

The 14.3% walk rate remains the clear ceiling question. Command has been the variable throughout his career, and it still shows up in the results when he falls behind. But the contact quality data, a 12.6% barrel rate and .256 xBA, says even when hitters get good swings, they are not doing damage. This is a pitcher who primarily belongs in a big league rotation. The Mets’ crowded rotation and the Super Two deadline in mid-June are some things keeping him in Syracuse, but the Clay Holmes injury from this past week might push him back to the majors.

Buy aggressively before the debut call comes. The xwOBA validation this season removes the “was the 2025 dominance real?” question. It was, and it is continuing. The changeup development directly addresses the only analytical knock on his profile as a future starter. Project him as a mid-rotation arm with strikeout upside. The walk rate is the variable that separates a No. 3 outcome from a No. 2 one. Buy at prospect prices now, suffer the growing pains for another year. The cost goes up the moment he is back in Queens, as his rise is quietly mirroring Nolan McLean’s.

Here are his PLV cards:

 

Triple-A Standouts

 

Gage Jump, Athletics
2026 Stats: 8 GS | 31.0 IP | 5.52 ERA | 4.84 FIP | 32.2% K% | 13.7% BB% | 29.7% CSW%
Last Week: 4.0 IP | 0.00 ERA | 4 H | 0 ER | 1 BB | 6 K

 

Jump is a 23-year-old A’s lefty who transferred from UCLA to LSU after Tommy John surgery and was drafted 73rd overall in 2024, a profile that has him at Double-A in his first full professional season. The four-seamer is the conversation starter: 95.7 mph with a 31.6% whiff rate and 6.45 feet of extension from a deceptive delivery that makes the pitch play up even before accounting for velocity. His 2,296 rpm spin rate generates elite induced vertical break, and hitters have a legitimately difficult time picking up the ball out of his hand. The slider at 84.5 mph follows at 33.2% usage with a 32.6% whiff rate, a credible two-pitch foundation that explains why he is missing bats at a 31.3% rate overall.

The number that demands attention before you get too excited is the wOBA-xwOBA gap. His actual .373 wOBA against is running 61 points ahead of his .312 xwOBA. That gap says the results are materially outpacing the underlying contact quality. Some regression is coming, and the direction it arrives in matters. His 13.7% walk rate echoes the second-half fade that produced a 13.50 ERA in his final four Double-A starts last year. The barrel rate (5.3%) is legitimately encouraging, as hitters are not squaring him up when they make contact, but the walks and the xwOBA gap create enough noise to warrant caution before declaring a breakout.

Last week was solid if unspectacular: .250 BA, six strikeouts in 17 plate appearances, a .276 wOBA. The kind of start that does not move the needle but confirms he is still operating at a solid Triple-A level.

The ceiling is a mid-rotation lefty with swing-and-miss upside. The floor is a reliever if the walks do not improve. Buy in deeper leagues where the upside is priced more aggressively, and hold in shallower formats where the walk rate makes the timeline uncertain. A late-2026 MLB debut is the realistic best case if the walk rate continues trending down from his second-half 2025 numbers. Do not overpay, but dynasty managers should not ignore him either.

Here are his PLV cards:

 

Brendan Beck, New York Yankees
2026 Stats: 8 GS | 42.2 IP | 4.43 ERA | 4.13 FIP | 26.4% K% | 5.2% BB% | 29.0% CSW%
Last Week: 5.2 IP | 0.00 ERA | 1 H | 0 ER | 1 BB | 9 K

 

Brendan  Beck is a 27-year-old Stanford product and two-time elbow surgery survivor who made his MLB debut May 7 and came right back to Triple-A to throw one of his best starts of the season. That sequencing tells you everything about where he stands within the organization. He earned the call, delivered serviceably in three innings of relief, and immediately reinforced the Yankees’ confidence by going 5.2 scoreless innings with nine strikeouts against Syracuse six days later. The 5.2% walk rate is the defining characteristic of his season. This is a pitcher who does not beat himself, who forces hitters to earn everything, and who generates outs with a five-pitch mix anchored by a slider that is doing real damage.

That slider at 82.4 mph has a 44.3% whiff rate and a .197 BA against. It is the best pitch in his arsenal by a significant margin and the reason the overall profile works despite a four-seamer sitting only 91.5 mph. His xwOBA (.289) is running 10 points below his wOBA (.299), a modest gap that says the results are essentially in line with the underlying contact quality. The curveball getting hit for a .412 BA is the development gap. It is the one pitch hitters are not confused by, and the splitter’s 27.3% barrel rate in a small sample is the number to watch as his usage of that pitch grows. Last week was the story of the section: .056 BA against, 9 K, 0 BB in 19 PA. That is a dominant outing by any standard.

Beck profiles as a back-end starter or high-leverage reliever, the kind of arm whose dynasty ceiling is capped by velocity but whose floor is raised by elite command and a legitimate plus slider. The Yankees control him for six-plus years on his first 40-man roster selection. If southpaw Max Fried’s elbow lands him on the IL, Beck is the most likely short-term fill-in. Acquire in deeper formats at back-rotation prices. The walk rate alone makes him more reliable than his stuff grades suggest.

Here are his PLV cards:

 

Brycen Mautz, St. Louis Cardinals
2026 Stats: 8 GS | 36.1 IP | 2.97 ERA | 5.01 FIP | 23.8% K% | 13.8% BB% | 30.6% CSW%
Last Week: 6.0 IP | 3.00 ERA | 6 H | 2 ER | 0 BB | 7 K

 

The most important number in Brycen Mautz’s season line is hiding in plain sight: his curveball has allowed one hit all season, a .059 BA against across 79 pitches. A low-slot Cardinals lefty who came to Triple-A Memphis after posting a 2.98 ERA and 134 strikeouts in 114.2 innings at Double-A Springfield in 2025, Mautz generates a difficult angle on all of his pitches from a three-quarters arm slot that sits below league average, and the data confirms hitters are not adjusting to it at the Triple-A level. His overall barrel rate of 1.9% is among the best marks of any Triple-A starter in baseball this season. Hitters are not squaring him up.

The four-seamer at 92.6 mph leads at 39.7% usage with a 26.8% whiff rate. It is not a power pitch, but the angle and deception make the velocity play up. The slider at 83.3 mph has a 35.8% whiff rate and a .167 BA against. The sinker at 91.9 mph does groundball work at 13.3% usage. What he does not have, and what the 13.8% walk rate signals, is the command to consistently execute when hitters sit on a specific location. His .318 wOBA runs only 12 points above his .306 xwOBA, confirming the results are essentially earned. The profile is legitimate. The walk rate is the development gap that sits between him and a big league rotation spot.

Last week was serviceable: 7 K, 0 BB, 1 HR, .261 BA in 23 PA. The zero walks are the weekly number to lean on. On the nights the command is there, Mautz is a difficult pitcher to solve.

The 1.9% barrel rate and .059 curveball BA are floor-setting metrics. The contact suppression is real regardless of the walk rate. Project him as a back-end starter in best-case scenarios or a multi-inning reliever where the left-on-left matchup plays up. The changeup (11.1% whiff) is the developmental piece that will determine the starter outcome. Stash in deeper formats. His 40-man roster status means a Cardinals call is only one rotation injury away. Do not buy aggressively. Monitor the walk rate trajectory over the next month.

Here are his PLV cards:

 

Low-A Long Shot

 

Reinold Navarro, Pittsburgh Pirates
2026 Stats: 7 G (3 GS) | 21.1 IP | 2.95 ERA | 4.86 FIP | 39.3% K% | 20.2% BB% | 31.9% CSW%
Last Week: 4.1 IP | 0.00 ERA | 1 H | 0 ER | 1 BB | 9 K

Start with the changeup, because it is the most surprising number in the Low-A Bradenton section and arguably in this entire column. Reinold Navarro, a 19-year-old Dominican lefty who signed with the Pirates on a minor league deal, has thrown his changeup 52 times this season. It has allowed zero hits. Zero. It generates a 43.5% whiff rate. On a pitcher who was walking five batters per inning in his season debut, the development of a third pitch into a genuine weapon is not something you typically see this fast.

The four-seamer sits 96.5 mph and touches 98 with a 44.4% whiff rate, elite at any level, absurd at Low-A. The slider at 83.8 mph adds a 41.7% whiff rate as the primary secondary. Three pitches, all generating whiff rates above 40%. His 43.9% overall whiff rate is the best mark among all five arms covered this week. On May 15, he struck out nine in 4.1 innings against Fort Myers, touched 98, generated 19 total whiffs (tied for the most among all Low-A pitchers), and threw a 63.3% strike rate. His season strikeout rate of 39.3% leads this week’s group by nearly seven percentage points.

The walk rate is. His 20.2% BB rate for the season is the reason this section is called Low-A Long Shot and not Top 100 Spotlight. But the trajectory matters as much as the number. Since moving to a relief role, he has walked just four batters in 14.1 innings, and his strike rate has finished above 60% in each of his last two outings. The command is actively improving, not stagnant. His xwOBA (.279) running 29 points below his actual wOBA (.308) suggests he is being helped by some sequencing luck, but the barrel rate of 2.2% confirms the underlying contact suppression is genuine.

Dynasty outlook: This is a two-year stash in dynasty formats, not a 2026 countdown. The stuff is legitimate. Three above-average or better offerings at 19 with an improving command profile is a development track worth owning. The walk rate will determine whether he develops as a starter or moves to a high-leverage relief role where the stuff plays even further up in shorter bursts. Acquire now at Low-A prices before the command improvement triggers a prospect ranking climb. Baseball America already moved him from No. 25 to No. 16 in the Pirates system. He will not stay at that number long if May 15 is the new normal.

 

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