Here is another check-in on PLV and Fan4+ darlings around the minors. Instead of looking at the biggest names, let’s look at some of the best recent performers who may not have the prospect profile to earn dynasty respect, but could make their real-life value known soon.
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Checking in on Big-name Prospects:
Parker Messick, 24, Cleveland Guardians
MiLB Season Stats: 16 GS/75.0 IP/3.36 ERA/28.7% K%/11.6% BB%/1.29 WHIP
Weekly Stats: 1 GS/7.0 IP/0.00 ERA/36.0% K%/4.0% BB%/0.57 WHIP
The Cleveland Guardians‘ 2025 season has unraveled faster than expected—but the next-man-up mentality embedded in their development model should keep them from fading into irrelevance. Reinforcements are on the way, and left-hander Parker Messick is shaping up to be a key piece of that emerging wave.
Messick, a 2022 second-round pick and former ACC Pitcher of the Year at Florida State, has rapidly ascended the system. He earned a 2025 Futures Game nod after rising from High-A to Triple-A since the start of 2024. Now, he owns a 3.36 ERA and 92 strikeouts over 75 innings at Triple-A Columbus, ranking third in the International League in strikeouts and sitting 12th on Cleveland’s prospect list entering the second half.
“So far, he has made the transition to Triple-A seamlessly—about as seamlessly as you could,” Guardians assistant GM James Harris said. “He’s throwing strikes. The results are there. He’s trying to attack hitters… he’s approaching it as if he’s preparing to help us here in Cleveland, which is really cool to see.”
The “next evolution,” as Harris calls it, will depend on Messick refining the nuances of his pitch mix. His fastball is a workhorse pitch thrown over 50% of the time, but it’s been hittable at the Triple-A level. With a near-average 4.75 PLV and a .307 xwOBA against, hitters are seeing it well and fouling it off frequently, limiting its effectiveness as a putaway pitch. The real weapon is his changeup, which leads his arsenal with a 47.1% whiff rate and a .192 xwOBA allowed. He throws it 21.8% of the time, and while its PLV (4.53) doesn’t jump off the page, it generates consistently poor contact and off-balance swings. In fact, much of Messick’s profile via PLV metrics trends average—but the results remain strong, leaving dynasty managers wondering just how much of the success is sustainable.
The Guardians’ rotation was rock-solid in June (3.61 ERA, 5th-best in MLB), and Shane Bieber is progressing in his return from Tommy John surgery. That limits Messick’s path to a short-term rotation role, but Cleveland hasn’t ruled out his 2025 MLB debut.
“Absolutely. He’s in the conversation,” Harris added. “He’s put himself in a position—with how he carries himself, his routines, and what he’s done in games—to be considered.”
Take a look under the PLV hood:
Weekly Four-Seam Standouts
This section could be a combination of Bubba Chandler (139 on July 4), Emmet Sheehan (130 on July 1), or Andrew Painter (120 on July 4), week in and week out. Those pitchers are among the cream of the prospect crop, and their fastballs are a large part of their success. Instead of honing in on the player’s managers many already know, here are some other above-average offerings and what makes them worth noting.
Tekoah Roby, 23, St. Louis Cardinals
Weekly Four-Seam Grade: 120 Fan4+ on July 4, 2025, start
MiLB Season Stats: 15 GS/72.2 IP/3.34 ERA/27.6% K%/6.1% BB%/1.09 WHIP
Tekoah Roby is finally healthy—and showing exactly why the Cardinals targeted him in the 2023 Jordan Montgomery trade. The 23-year-old right-hander dominated Double-A with a 2.49 ERA and 30% strikeout rate before earning a June promotion to Triple-A Memphis. Through 15 starts in 2025, Roby owns a 6–4 record, 3.34 ERA, and 1.09 WHIP over 72.2 innings, all while flashing the kind of stuff that hints at mid-rotation upside.
Roby’s arsenal is headlined by a riding 95–97 mph fastball and a 60-grade curveball that consistently keeps hitters off-balance. He rounds out his four-pitch mix with a developing changeup and slider—both of which show flashes, but remain inconsistent. His fastball/curveball pairing alone gives him a high floor as a potential high-leverage reliever, though the Cardinals remain focused on developing him as a starter.
This is already Roby’s highest workload since 2021, prompting speculation as to how his workload management could keep him fresh through August. But despite the durability concerns, Baseball America pushed Roby up to seventh in the Cardinals’ system, calling him “the breakout arm of a resurgent pipeline.” Roby’s command has wavered a bit in the International League—walks are the primary concern—but his overall profile is still trending in the right direction. If he can keep his walk rate near 7% and coax his changeup to fringe-average, his path to St. Louis in 2026 looks increasingly likely. Long-term, he projects as a potential mid-rotation starter, complementing the Cardinals’ next wave of arms like Tink Hence and Gordon Graceffo.
R.J. Sales, 21, Detroit Tigers
Weekly Four-Seam Grade: 121 Fan4+ on July 4, 2025, start
MiLB Season Stats: 13 G (12 GS)/53.1 IP/2.19 ERA/21.8% K%/5.9% BB%/0.96 WHIP
Right-handed pitcher R.J. Sales has gone from an unheralded 10th-round pick to one of the Tigers’ fastest-rising arms in just 12 professional starts. The 21-year-old has quietly built one of the most effective profiles in the Florida State League, posting a 2.19 ERA, 0.96 WHIP, and 44 strikeouts over 53.1 innings for Low-A Lakeland. Sales works with a lively 93–96 mph fastball and a top-of-the-zone hammer curve, the latter helping fuel three scoreless outings in his last five starts. He’s allowed just eight earned runs since the end of April. But while the fastball velocity pops, the pitch’s profile—or more specifically, its location—has needed refinement.
So far in 2025, opponents own a .309 xwOBA against the fastball, a red flag considering how often he’s tried to elevate it. A low 14.7% whiff rate and 44.4% hard-hit rate suggest the pitch isn’t yet good enough to consistently live high in the zone, even against Low-A competition. That’s why Sales’ July 4 outing stood out: it marked a clear shift in approach. He attacked right-handed batters down and in with the fastball, leading to more manageable contact and playing to his strengths. That day, he led all Florida State League starters with an 18.3″ iVB and 1.4 HAVAA, earning him one of the highest Fan4+ scores of the slate.
There’s still work to be done in refining his fastball command and tunneling it off his secondaries, but the underlying metrics point to legitimate growth. With a better location strategy and an already nasty breaking ball, Sales has all the makings of a sleeper pitching prospect on the rise in Detroit’s system.
Andrew Landry, 23, New York Yankees
Weekly Four-Seam Grade: 111 Fan4+ in July 5 , 2025, start
MiLB Season Stats: 14 G (13 GS)/64.1 IP/4.20 ERA/21.6% K%/8.9% BB%/1.49 WHIP
Right-handed pitcher Andrew Landry is older and more experienced than many of his Florida State League peers, but the Southeastern Louisiana product is quietly rebounding from a rocky start to his first full professional season—and his fastball is leading the charge. Sitting in the low-to-mid 90s and touching 96 mph on occasion, Landry’s four-seam fastball plays up thanks to its high spin rate and consistent command. It’s easily his most-used pitch, and for good reason: only three hard-hit balls have gone for hits off it in the past month. His ability to locate it effectively has given him the foundation to mix in an increasingly intriguing set of secondaries.
Since the start of June, Landry has thrown his curveball, changeup, and slider in near-equal measure. Each pitch brings something to the table: a 34.9% whiff rate on the changeup, zero barrels and a .220 xwOBA allowed on the slider, and a curveball that keeps hitters off-balance as a true offset pitch. There’s legitimate life in Landry’s profile within the Yankees’ system, but his long-term trajectory will hinge on how he rounds out that arsenal. If he can maintain this level of fastball efficiency into July, the next logical step could be refining either the slider or curveball further—or testing his mettle against more advanced hitters at the next level.
Welcome to the Bigs
Andry Lara, 22, Washington Nationals
MiLB Season Stats: 9 GS (8 GS)/30.1 IP/7.71 ERA/16.2% K%/10.4% BB%/2.08 WHIP
Debut: 3.0 IP/0.00 ERA/40.0% K%/0% BB%/0.33 WHIP
When Andry Lara took the mound on July 2, 2025, in the Washington Nationals’ opener of a day–night doubleheader against the AL Central’s Detroit Tigers, expectations were understandably low. The Nationals were already trailing 11–2 after a disastrous start, and Lara—a 22-year-old prospect serving as the day’s 27th man—was making his MLB debut with little to lose. Few expected fireworks. Instead, Lara delivered one of the lone bright spots in an otherwise forgettable game.
Over three innings, Lara faced just 10 batters, allowed a single hit, walked none, and struck out four—including the very first batter he faced. His debut line: 3.0 IP, 1 H, 0 R, 0 BB, 4 K, good for a 0.00 ERA and 0.33 WHIP. More importantly, his work saved a taxed bullpen and helped Washington preserve arms for Game 2, when the offense woke up and earned the Nationals a doubleheader split.
“He threw everything for strikes,” said manager Davey Martinez. “It was awesome to see him come in there the last three innings and pump strikes like that.”
To quantify what manager Davey Martinez saw, Lara’s arsenal isn’t expansive—but it was plenty effective in his debut against Detroit. He primarily leaned on a sinker-slider combo, mixing in a changeup against left-handed hitters. The slider was the star of the outing, earning a head-turning 5.81 PLV, thanks to several ugly swings out of the zone and accounting for three of his four total whiffs. His sinker functioned more like a traditional fastball in this appearance—he threw it over the heart of the plate and let contact work in his favor, generating most of his outs on balls in play. The changeup, however, remains uninspiring. Without a more consistent or threatening third pitch, Lara’s MLB ceiling may be capped. Two average offerings and a fringy changeup won’t carry a long-term role—especially in a league where deception and depth matter more than ever.
And while this was a textbook “good-news debut,” context matters. Lara, signed out of Venezuela in 2019, has dealt with a series of injuries over his professional career. Those setbacks, paired with underwhelming minor league results in 2025, meant he was largely viewed as a white-flag option—someone called up for innings in a blowout. That made his dominant three-inning effort all the more surprising.
Lara is a starter by trade, so the Nationals will now need to decide whether to keep him in the Triple-A rotation or begin exploring a potential bullpen future. Either way, he returns to Harrisonburg with valuable big-league experience—and a sparkling stat line. For now, Lara occupies a spot on the 40-man roster and owns a 0.00 ERA in the majors. Sometimes, that’s enough to keep a door open.
Pitchers that made their MLB debuts this past week:
Juan Burgos, 25, Seattle Mariners
