June is here. We’re just over two months into the season with four months to go. Out of curiosity, I checked out the standings from one year ago today. I was interested to see how many teams in the playoff field at the end of May made the postseason four months later.
The answer is two-thirds. Eight of the 12 franchises that were in the playoff field at the end of May suited up for October baseball. Four out of six squads from each league made the postseason, and the only division leader on June 1 who missed out was the New York Mets after their infamous second-half collapse.
If I am to believe that something similar to last year is to occur again in 2026, deciding which of the current division leaders would be the one to fall short of the postseason is no easy task. As it stands today, here are the six division leaders:
AL East: Rays (36-20)
AL Central: Guardians (34-27)
AL West: Mariners (31-29)
NL East: Atlanta (40-20)
NL Central: Brewers (35-21)
NL West: Dodgers (38-21)
Hmm? The easy answer would be the AL West-leading Mariners, given that they have the worst record of the six teams. But I don’t think Seattle will have any problems winning what is arguably the worst division in baseball. They’ve picked it up recently and enter Monday on a six-game winning streak after sweeping the Diamondbacks over the weekend. We’ll talk more about the M’s in the top five series list later on.
The Guardians and Rays each have only one other foe within five games of the division lead. The American League has only five teams with winning records, which is good news for these division leaders. I think because Tampa Bay plays in a much tougher division with teams like Toronto and Baltimore starting to play better, they would probably be my choice to miss out on the playoffs when it’s all said and done.
In my opinion, the National League division races are looking pretty darn good for the three leaders. Atlanta has MLB’s best record, and its nine-game division lead is by far the largest in baseball. Unless Atlanta pulls a New York and has an epic NL East collapse over the next four months, I don’t see any way Georgia’s team doesn’t make the playoffs. The Dodgers are the Dodgers, and if anyone reading this believes that they won’t be playing in October, I think you might be delusional. That leaves us with the Milwaukee Brewers, who enter this week with a 4 ½ game lead in the NL Central. Even though they are residing in the best all-around division in MLB right now (every team is over .500 and within one game of a playoff spot), I think when healthy, they are the obvious cream of the crop.
What’s my point in breaking all of this down? I can’t convince myself that any of the six current division leaders will miss the postseason, but I feel the Rays are in the most vulnerable spot if some of those other AL East teams make a run.
Okay, enough of my blabbering. Let’s get to the real reason you’re reading this article today. This week’s top five series list.
No. 1 Guardians (34-27) at Yankees (36-23)
Series length: Three games (Tuesday, Wednesday, Thursday)
To be honest, this wasn’t a difficult decision. I knew this would be No. 1 on the list immediately. These are two of the top three records in the American League with plenty of recent postseason history. The Yankees and Guardians have met every other year in the playoffs this decade. New York has owned Cleveland when it counts, winning all three postseason series they’ve played since 2020. In fact, of the seven times these clubs have met in the playoffs dating back to their first meeting in 1997, New York has won five of those series.
What’s exciting about the next week-plus is that these playoff foes will meet six times. Cleveland hosts New York beginning next Monday, which means their head-to-head matchups will play a huge role in each squad’s early June records.
These teams rank in the AL’s top five in ERA, opponent batting average, and strikeouts. I love Wednesday’s expected starting pitching matchup between Cleveland’s Gavin Williams (12 GS, 8-3, 3.07 ERA) and New York’s Gerrit Cole, who hasn’t allowed a run over 12 ⅔ innings since making his season debut in late May. The eight wins for Williams are tied for the American League lead, and his 88 punchouts rank second behind Blue Jays right-hander Dylan Cease’s 92.
In 2025, these teams split their season series, 3-3.
No. 2: Dodgers (38-21) at Diamondbacks (31-27)
Series length: Four games (Monday, Tuesday, Wednesday, Thursday)
Well, if Arizona has any shot at not only catching the Dodgers in the NL West but also claiming a wild card spot (currently tied for the final WC position), they’ll need to start playing better against winning clubs. The Diamondbacks entered last weekend’s series in Seattle with a 9-1 record over its last 10 games, and were 25-9 versus sub-.500 teams. Seattle is no longer under .500 after sweeping the Snakes, and now Arizona returns home for a series with the first-place Dodgers, a club that is well over .500. The problem for the Diamondbacks…they are 8-19 against winning teams this year.
These NL West rivals met in the opening series of the year in Los Angeles. The Dodgers swept them in three games to put Arizona in an immediate hole. At 6 ½ games back of the four-time defending division champs, this matchup certainly ranks as the most important division series battle of the early week. The good news for the D-backs is that they have the second-best home winning percentage in the National League with an 18-10 record. Of course, the club they are about to face not only has the best home record in the NL at 20-11, but they are also 18-10 on the road.
The best way to summarize this head-to-head matchup is by saying that Arizona hasn’t won a season series against the Dodgers since 2018. That year, the D-backs won 11 of 19 meetings. The only real positive moment for Arizona when matched with Los Angeles came in the 2023 NLDS after they swept the Dodgers in three games. But this isn’t the playoffs. When it comes to the regular season, the Dodgers find a way to victory far more often than not, and usually that leads to the Diamondbacks’ demise. Other than ’23, when Arizona made a run to the World Series, they’ve only been to the postseason twice since 2017. If they are going to be legit division contenders, then this is their best chance to make a statement in front of the home crowd at Chase Field.
No. 3: Mets (26-33) at Mariners (31-29)
Series length: Three games (Monday, Tuesday, Wednesday)
Let’s be frank. Neither of these projected playoff squads has met expectations to this point. However, they earn a top-five spot because each represents the current longest winning streak in their respective leagues. Seattle’s winning streak reached six games after Sunday’s walk-off single in the 10th frame by Victor Robles finished off the home sweep of Arizona. The Mets are winners of four straight contests after scoring 25 runs combined in three weekend victories at home over Miami.
Remember, the Mets were an MLB-worst 10-21 entering May and finished June with a respectable 16-12 record, pulling within 5 ½ games of an NL wild card spot. That’s not insurmountable by any means. Meanwhile, the Mariners were 16-16 heading into May. Their 15-13 record last month was nothing impressive, but Seattle enters June with a 2 ½-game advantage in the AL West.
Keep a close eye on the stars for each team in this series. New York’s Juan Soto and Seattle’s Julio Rodríguez each went yard 10 times in May after combining for only five homers at April’s end. As usual, their teams play best when they are hitting at their full capabilities.
No. 4: Padres (32-26) at Phillies (30-29)
Series length: Three games (Tuesday, Wednesday, Thursday)
It’s a revenge series for San Diego. These playoff contenders met last week at Petco Park, and the home club was held to two runs over their three losses. Unfortunately for Philadelphia, they didn’t carry that momentum into Dodger Stadium and lost their weekend series 2-1. If the playoffs started today, San Diego would be the National League’s top wild-card team, and Philadelphia would miss out on the postseason by 1 ½ games. But that’s not really what this series is about. Each team has around 100 games remaining, and worrying about playoff positioning at the start of June seems silly.
My top reason for having this series at No. 4 has far less to do with where the teams are ranked in the standings than it does with one player’s quest for history. Make no mistake, all this talk about the NL Cy Young Award race is fun, and yes, it’s competitive right now. But if the season ended today, and Philadelphia’s Cristopher Sánchez was not the NL’s winner, I’d probably be sick. And I’m not even a Phillies fan. But when you consider Sanchez’s historical run of 44 ⅔ consecutive scoreless frames (seventh-best streak in the Live Ball Era) after his dominant performance against the Friars last Wednesday (W, 7 IP, 0 ER, 9 K), there’s no one more deserving than the 29-year-old southpaw who didn’t allow a run in May.
If you’re still not convinced that he should be the runaway winner for the Cy Young at this point, then please consider that Sanchez leads MLB in ERA and innings pitched, while ranking second in strikeouts behind Milwaukee’s Jacob Misiorowski, who is probably Sanchez’s closest competition for this award at the moment. No disrespect to Shohei Ohtani, of course. And Paul Skenes? Sorry, Pirates fans, but not right now.
There’s my defense of Sanchez. He’s 14 ⅓ frames away from tying Orel Hershiser’s nearly 40-year-old record of 59 consecutive scoreless innings pitched set in 1988. If Sanchez throws another scoreless gem against San Diego in Game 2 of this series on Wednesday, then all eyes better be on him next week in a likely start against Toronto. These are the fun records to follow. Tune in for Wednesday’s game at 6:40 p.m. ET if you can.
No. 5: White Sox (32-27) at Twins (27-33)
Series length: Three games (Monday, Tuesday, Wednesday)
I have to admit something. When Munetaka Murakami landed on the 10-day IL with a Grade 2 hamstring strain after running out a grounder on Friday versus the Tigers, I was concerned not only for the White Sox but my fantasy team as well. He was Chicago’s main power source this season (tied for AL lead with 20 homers) and certainly my head-to-head fantasy team’s top power bat. What concerned me even more was the news that Murakami could be out up to six weeks for a team that is in the midst of one of the great turnarounds in recent history. Now the White Sox will be without their rookie star for probably at least this month, and some of July, which could take us right into the All-Star break (July 13-15) before we see their first baseman on the field again.
If it so happens that Murakami doesn’t return until the second half, I have a difficult time seeing Chicago hang in the AL Central with Cleveland, despite only being one game back entering this series with Minnesota. The good news for the White Sox is that they have a 3 ½-game cushion in the AL wild card and currently hold the No. 2 position in that race. The bad news for Chicago is that after this six-game road trip (3 games at Minnesota, 3 games at Philadelphia), they return home to face the top two clubs in the National League (3 games vs. Atlanta, 3 games vs. Los Angeles) and then hit the highway again for a three-game series in the Bronx against the Yankees.
If the Chicago White Sox survive their gauntlet of a schedule to begin June, and are somehow still holding onto a playoff position by the conclusion of their series with New York on June 18, I’ll be amazed. Even with a healthy Murakami, this would be a difficult test to overcome. Without him? I don’t think it’s possible. But I’ve been wrong plenty before.
The bottom line is that this four-game series against a struggling Twins franchise, currently in the midst of a five-game losing streak, is about as must-win as it gets for Chicago, given what they’ve lost with Murakami and what lies ahead in this month’s schedule.
Missed the Top Five
Tigers (22-38) at Rays (36-20): Three games
Marlins (26-34) at Nationals (31-29): Three games
Royals (22-37) at Reds (30-28): Three games
Giants (23-36) at Brewers (35-21): Four games
Rangers (28-31) at Cardinals (31-26): Three games
Rockies (22-38) at Angels (23-37): Three games
Orioles (28-32) at Red Sox (25-33): Three games
Blue Jays (29-31) at Atlanta (40-20): Three games
A’s (28-31) at Cubs (32-28): Three games
Pirates (32-28) at Astros (27-34): Three games
