We’re in for a treat this weekend. With the exception of the year’s first edition of MLB Series Preview (before any team had played a game), this will be the first article featuring a top-five list consisting of all teams with at least a .500 record. In fact, only one of the 10 franchises listed below doesn’t have a winning record. That would be the Philadelphia Phillies at 25-25. This is the 17th MLB Series Preview of the season. Let’s get right to it.
No. 1: Rays (33-15) at Yankees (30-21)
Series length: Three games (Friday, Saturday, Sunday)
Here we go. Round 2 begins. In what will be the second of four series between these AL East rivals, and easily the two most consistent squads in the American League, the Yankees host Tampa Bay for three contests with one idea in mind. Payback. The Rays swept New York at Tropicana Field in early April, and since that series, it’s been nothing but a dominant run by the division’s top club.
The Rays have won eight consecutive series dating back to exactly one month ago, when they lost two of three contests to Cincinnati from April 20-22. Since that time, Tampa Bay has seen its lead in the AL East increase to 4 ½ games over the only division threat it appears to have in ’26, the New York Yankees.
Meanwhile, it hasn’t been all sunshine and rainbows for the Pinstripes this month. They’ve lost nine of their last 13 contests, and after going ahead of Toronto 2-0 in a four-game set this week, it appeared that the Yanks would win their first series in four tries. Instead, the Blue Jays salvaged the final two contests, making New York 0-3-1 in their last four series.
Ahh, but despite the recent struggles, there’s good news in Yankee land this weekend. They’ll see the return of ace Gerrit Cole for Game 1 of this series on Friday. Cole hasn’t pitched in a big league contest since having Tommy John surgery in March of 2025. The former Cy Young winner didn’t look fantastic in his six minor league rehab starts leading up to his season debut (6 GS, 29 IP, 0-2, 4.66 ERA), but should Yankee fans really be concerned? Probably not, because all things considered, New York is in a pretty good position in the American League wild card (a four-game lead for the top WC spot), and I’m betting that Cole will figure it out as the season moves forward. He’ll face Tampa Bay’s Nick Martinez in the opener (9 GS, 4-1, 1.51 ERA).
In April, Tampa Bay scored five runs in each of its three wins versus the Bronx Bombers. Every game was decided by two or fewer runs. Overall, we’re probably looking at the top two pitching staffs in the American League. Strictly by the numbers, the Rays and Yankees rank in the top three, along with the Texas Rangers, in ERA, WHIP, and opponent batting average. New York leads all three of those categories.
The bottom line. This is an important division series for both squads. If Tampa Bay wins or sweeps, they’ll have at least a 5 ½-game lead in the AL East, with a fairly soft schedule to end May (three games at Baltimore and three games versus the Angels). New York ends the month with a six-game road trip in Kansas City and against the A’s in Sacramento.
No. 2: Dodgers (31-19) at Brewers (29-18)
Series length: Three games (Friday, Saturday, Sunday)
Well, I guess we’re about to find out if there’s any hangover for the Brewers after last year’s embarrassing showing against Los Angeles in the NLCS. It was a fantastic regular season for Milwaukee in ’25, winning an MLB-best 97 games. Watching them get to the NLCS and score only one run in each of their four losses to the eventual World Series champs (a team that won four fewer games than the Brew Crew during the regular season) was not a good look for the Brew Crew.
Admittedly, I was rooting for a great 2025 NLCS and thought Milwaukee had enough grit to at least make it a six-game series, and possibly, win it. Why not? They were the best team around for six months. But the series wasn’t close. They looked nothing like their regular-season version. Remember, the Brewers swept the season series with Los Angeles, 6-0. This reminded me of one thing about regular-season baseball compared to playoff baseball. They are nothing alike. The better team won in October despite being owned by their opponent in six regular-season meetings beforehand.
Now, it’s 2026, and these foes are battling for the first time since the NLCS. In a similar fashion to last year, the Dodgers and Brewers are at the top of their respective divisions and look like the cream of the crop going forward. Milwaukee has won eight of its last 10 games and owns a 1 ½ game lead in the best overall division in MLB. The Dodgers just won two of three against San Diego and also have a 1½-game advantage in their division. If the playoffs started today, the Dodgers would get a first-round bye over Milwaukee as the National League’s No. 2 seed. These clubs are separated by a half-game in the standings for that all-important bye, making this series about as entertaining as one could ask for in May.
This is a tough series to evaluate, knowing what I know about ’25. If Milwaukee were to sweep Los Angeles in their two regular-season meetings for a second straight year (play three games at Dodger Stadium in August), would I be confident in their ability to get it done if they were to play again in October? No. For as good and as well-respected a franchise as Milwaukee is, until they beat the best when it matters, I can’t take their regular-season success too seriously.
No. 3: Guardians (30-22) at Phillies (25-25)
Series length: Three games (Friday, Saturday, Sunday)
I think had the Phillies not just lost a series this week to the Reds at home, then all things being equal, this might have jumped up to No. 2 on the list. Philadelphia had won six consecutive series before its loss to Cincinnati, and Cleveland is coming off a dominant four-game sweep of the struggling Tigers. The Guards have won six straight contests, three straight series, and in a matter of only a week-plus, Cleveland has gone from a below-.500 club (fighting it out with the rest of the mediocre AL Central) to having the third-best record in the American League.
The Guards have a 3 ½-game lead over Chicago in the division and, during their current winning streak, have outscored opponents 36-15. At 25-25, Philadelphia sits in second place in the NL East, but is still 9 ½ games back of Atlanta. Entering Friday, the Fightin Phils are 3 ½ games out of a wild card spot.
The most intriguing part of this series is probably the expected pitching matchup on Friday between two of the top strikeout arms in MLB. Philadelphia’s Cristopher Sánchez (10 GS, 5-2, 1.82 ERA) takes on Cleveland’s Gavin Williams (10 GS, 6-3, 3.67 ERA). Sanchez ranks third in MLB with 80 punchouts over 64 ⅓ frames, while Williams ranks sixth after striking out 73 over 61 ⅓ innings.
It should be a good series between two squads with a combined record of 27-12 in May.
No. 4: Cardinals (28-21) at Reds (26-24)
Series length: Three games (Friday, Saturday, Sunday)
The records indicate that I should be very interested in this upcoming series between NL Central foes. After all, these teams are only separated by 2 ½ games for the final NL wild card spot, and both are within 4 ½ games of the division lead. It’s an important first series between these rivals, as all NL Central matchups seem to be right now. However, the way both teams are playing at the moment, especially the hosts, is concerning.
The Reds have the second-worst record in May, ahead of only the Colorado Rockies. Cincinnati entered this month with the NL Central’s top record at 20-11, and has since gone 6-13. Despite winning two of three contests in Philadelphia this week, I can’t get too excited about a club with a -28 run differential after 50 games played. That mark ranks only ahead of the Giants and Rockies in the National League, yet somehow, Cincy has a better record than seven other clubs in the Senior Circuit.
St. Louis is only 5-5 over their last 10 matches, and is the only other NL Central team with a negative run differential (-5). It doesn’t get any easier for the Cardinals after this series. They’ll face the division’s top two clubs beginning Monday when they travel to Milwaukee for three games before hosting the Cubs for a trio of contests next weekend.
I’m definitely not trying to steer readers and fans away from this series. I’m simply stating that their win-loss records are probably better than the overall numbers these clubs have posted. It also doesn’t help that the projected pitching matchups leave a lot to be desired. Out of the six expected starting pitchers in this series, only one has an ERA under 4.00, and just barely. That would be the Cardinals’ 28-year-old right-hander, Kyle Leahy (3.94 ERA).
Anyway, these franchises are where they are in the standings, and by default, they’ve earned a spot in the top five this weekend given their winning records.
No. 5: Athletics (26-24) at Padres (29-20)
Series length: Three games (Friday, Saturday, Sunday)
Sticking to the trend of .500 or better clubs battling in head-to-head matchups, we have a division leader playing a division runner-up.
The A’s are coming in on a three-game winning streak after a 3-1 series victory over the worst team in baseball, the Los Angeles Angels. Prior to that, the A’s had lost four of six games. This is a big couple of weeks coming up for Sacramento’s team. At 1 ½ games ahead of the Rangers for the AL West’s top position, the Athletics begin a stretch with this series at San Diego, home against the Seattle Mariners, and New York Yankees, before hitting the road for a pair of three-game sets against the Cubs and Astros.
As for San Diego, there’s no shame in losing to the two-time defending champs as they did earlier this week in their first meeting with the Dodgers. They are only 1 ½ games behind Los Angeles in the NL West. After this series, they’ll face the Phillies six times over a nine-game stretch with a three-game set versus the Nationals in between.
Missed the Top Five
Astros (20-31) at Cubs (29-21): Three games
Pirates (26-24) at Blue Jays (23-27): Three games
Twins (23-27) at Red Sox (22-27): Three games
Mets (22-28) at Marlins (22-29): Three games
Tigers (20-31) at Orioles (21-29): Three games
Nationals (25-26) at Atlanta (35-16): Three games
Mariners (24-27) at Royals (20-30): Three games
Rangers (24-25) at Angels (17-34): Three games
Rockies (19-32) at Diamondbacks (26-23): Four games *D-backs won Thursday’s opener, 2-1.
White Sox (25-24) at Giants (20-30): Three games
