“If you’re always rational about every free agent, you will finish third on every free agent.”
Andrew Friedman, president of baseball operations for the Los Angeles Dodgers, said this almost a decade ago. In the past five offseasons, he’s signed Freddie Freeman for 6 years, $162 million heading into his age 32 season, Shohei Ohtani to a historic 10 year, $700m deal after he had his second Tommy John surgery, Blake Snell to a five-year, $182m deal despite injuries throughout his career, and most recently signed Kyle Tucker to a six year, $240m deal.
However, one of these contracts represents a broader shift in how marquee free agents are approaching the process. The model has started evolving.
For decades, elite free agents followed the same model: one long-term deal designed to carry them through the back half of their careers. Even as contract sizes increased, the structure remained largely unchanged.
In recent years, a growing number of star players have opted for short-term contracts, with historically high average annual values (AAV) — often paired with opt-outs — choosing flexibility over long-term security. On the surface, these deals can look extreme. Why pay Alex Bregman the same amount as Aaron Judge?
The answer is that these contracts aren’t reckless at all: they’re a market correction.
When viewed with a WAR-based valuation and factoring in arbitration underpayment and aging curves, short-term, high-AAV contracts often represent a more efficient use of payroll for teams and a chance for higher career earnings for players than the traditional decade-long megadeals that are synonymous with Free Agency.
Methodology
FanGraphs'”Dollars”($) metric calculates, in millions, how much a player was worth that season, based on the cost of 1 fWAR in Free Agency. If the going rate for 1FWAR in free agency is $8m, and a player has a strong, 5 fWAR season, their “Dollars” for that season would be $40. For a $300 million contract to break even, a player must provide roughly $300 million in on-field value.
Since 2019, the Dollar/fWAR metric has typically been around $8 million, with the largest fluctuation being the 2020 COVID-shortened season.
All contract information will come from Spotrac, and all WAR and dollar metrics will come from FanGraphs. For the most part, the player’s value will be compared to a player’s adjusted AAV. For example, Alex Bregman made $40 million from the Red Sox last season, but $20 million of that was deferred for 3 seasons, which brought his tax hit/adjusted AAV to $30 million. When analyzing Bregman’s 2025 production, his $ metric will be compared to the $30 million tax hit, rather than the $40 million he actually earned.
Case Studies
Players signing short-term contracts with opt-outs became a trend during the 2024 offseason when four Scott Boras clients — Matt Chapman, Cody Bellinger, Blake Snell, Jordan Montgomery — signed short-term deals with multiple opt-outs with the hope of parlaying a strong season into the long-term deal they were seeking. The AAVs have only increased as this trend continued with Alex Bregman heading into 2025, and most recently, Bo Bichette and Kyle Tucker this offseason.
Each of these players had some concerns about their abilities heading into Free Agency, and were hoping to alleviate any concerns with a strong season.
Please note that all contract information is from Spotrac, and player stats are from FanGraphs
Matt Chapman fWAR, $, AAV
Matt Chapman was traded to the Blue Jays from the A’s after a season where he was worth 5x his arbitration salary, and proceeded to sign a two-year $12.5m contract buying out his last two years of arbitration. Chapman outperformed his contract in both seasons but struggled offensively in his walk season. Chapman’s one of the best defenders in the sport, but questions about his offense led to him signing a three-year, $54 million contract with opt-outs after each season.
The $18 million Chapman received from the Giants was a safe bet for the team since he was worth an average of 3.5 fWAR over his last three seasons of arbitration, which, when converted to $, would be ~$28.
Chapman never had the chance to opt out, as the Giants locked him up to a six-year, $151m deal after his offense bounced back to his career average (121 wRC+ in 2024, 118 wRC+ career average).
So far, the Giants have paid Chapman $43.17 million, and he has been worth $73.2 in his two seasons in the Bay Area.
Despite remaining a very productive player and easily outplaying his five-year, $100m contract that bought out his arbitration, Bregman finished his career with the Astros on a downward trend. This, coupled with questions about his ability to hit outside of the hitter-friendly Daikin (previously Minute Maid) park, led teams to be hesitant about giving Bregman the contract he wanted. Bregman turned down a six-year, $171.5m offer from the Tigers to sign a whopping three-year, $120m deal with the Red Sox, who deferred half the money and gave Bregman an opt-out after each season.
The deferrals brought Bregman’s AAV down to $31.7 million, and despite spending time on the injured list, Bregman’s on-field production was still in line with what the Sox paid him.
Bregman signed a five-year, $175 million deal with the Cubs this offseason, which will bring his career free agent earnings to $215 million over six years.
The Mets’ all-time home run leader, Pete Alonso, struggled in his walk year and produced the lowest slugging percentage of his career. Alonso re-signed with the Mets on a two-year, $54m deal with an opt-out to re-establish his value and prove his walk year was a fluke.
Alonso lived up to his AAV and produced a season worth $28.7. Over his final four seasons in Queens, Alonso produced $98 million in value while carrying just $69.4 million in total tax hits
Alonso was rewarded after his bounce-back season with a five-year, $155m contract from the Orioles, bringing his earnings in Free Agency to six years, $185m (he was paid $30m by the Mets last season, and would’ve been paid $24m this season if he didn’t opt out).
Bo Bichette, Kyle Tucker
Bo Bichette joined the short-term, high-AAV club when he signed a three-year, $126m deal with the Mets this offseason, including opt-outs after each season. Bichette had an extremely rough season heading into his walk year, in which he was limited to 81 games, and when he played, he wasn’t productive, finishing the season with a 70 wRC+, far below his 122 career mark.
While this season looks like an outlier compared to the rest of his career, there are also questions about his defense at shortstop, and he will play third base this season, which could improve his defensive metrics and increase his value.
Bichette will only be 28 this season, and another strong year will put him in a position to sign the lucrative long-term deal he desires.
Kyle Tucker was the best free agent available this offseason, and he did get a contract that turned heads. Tucker signed a four-year, $240m contract with the Dodgers, with opt-outs after year 2 and year 3. Due to deferrals, the AAV for Tucker is $57m, breaking the previous record of $51m.
Tucker has consistently been one of the best players in the sport, but he has dealt with injuries over the past two seasons. In 2024, he was limited to just 78 games but accumulated 4.2 fWAR, and last season, he played through a fractured hand that saw his wRC+ drop from 145 in the first half to 115 in the second half.
Fair Value For These Players
Bregman finished 2025 with a surplus value ($ – AAV) of -$3.5 million despite spending time on the IL. Chapman was a complete steal for the Giants ($25.6 million surplus) in the first year of his prove-it deal, and still outperformed his contract in the first year of his extension ($4.43 million surplus). Alonso, despite playing a position that fWAR minimizes, outperformed his short-term deal as well ($1.7 million) surplus.
These short-term, high AAV deals are a win for the players in that they can alleviate any concerns and reservations about their long-term viability that potential suitors might have, and teams receive production worthy of their price.
Bo Bichette, even if he doesn’t produce $42 million in $, can still realistically come close to that mark. He’s still only 28 and should be entering the prime of his career, and moving off of shortstop should help increase his value.
Kyle Tucker joins a star-studded lineup in LA, and during his last season with the Astros, he was on an ~8 fWAR pace if he played 150 games, and had a 153 wRC+ before injuring his hand. Matching a $57 million AAV would require an elite, healthy season from Tucker, who’s flashed that potential in the past two seasons.
Short-term, high-AAV contracts don’t require perfection; they require teams to pay closer to what the marquee free agents are actually worth.
Graphic designed and made by Carlos Leano
