Both literally and figuratively, the Athletics are truly an organization at a crossroads. While the team will likely not make the Postseason during their first season in Sacramento, the emergence of exciting young players such as Jacob Wilson provides optimism that the team will once again be competitive by the time they arrive in Las Vegas in 2028. Another exciting young player who I believe will be an integral part of their next playoff team is first baseman Nick Kurtz. Drafted 4th overall in the 2024 Draft, Kurtz made his Major League debut earlier this season and has displayed glimpses of his offensive potential over his first 200 plate appearances at the Major League level. Known for his combination of power, bat-to-ball skills, and advanced swing decisions at Wake Forest, Kurtz has already showcased elite bat speed in the Majors, though his contact rate has naturally regressed against tougher pitching at the game’s highest level. This article will examine the elite physical tools that make Kurtz such an exciting offensive prospect, highlight a notable weakness in his offensive approach, and explore how these traits could shape his development into one of the league’s premier power hitters moving forward.
As mentioned in the introduction, Kurtz has displayed glimpses of his offensive potential over his first 200 plate appearances at the Major League level, currently producing a 128 wRC+ with a 10.3% walk rate, 32.9% strikeout rate, and .277 ISO. After an initial adjustment period upon promotion to the Majors, Kurtz improved his level of offensive production in June, producing a 152 wRC+ and .333 ISO with 7 home runs last month. Kurtz’s disciplined approach has allowed him to run a double-digit walk rate throughout his professional career, which, when combined with his demonstrated ability to hit the ball hard, provides him with a solid floor of offensive production. While Kurtz’s power and swing decision ability have lived up to expectations, Kurtz is currently displaying a 32.9% strikeout rate, the highest he has displayed throughout his amateur and professional career.
These observations are reflected in his Process+ metrics, which evaluate how well a hitter executes the aspects of hitting they have the most control over (swing decisions, contact ability, and batted ball quality), relative to the quality of pitches faced. So far this season, Kurtz has produced a 116 Process+, driven by a 118 Decision+ and 127 Power+, while his 67 Contact+ reflects a notable area a vulnerability in his offensive profile.
As shown by the table above, Kurtz has done nothing but hit the ball hard since making his Major League debut, currently producing a 16.5% barrel rate, 103.5 EV50, and 108.0 EV90, all comfortably above league-average. As evident by his high barrel rate, Kurtz has combined his ability to hit the ball hard with a tendency to hit the ball in the air, currently displaying a 59.5% air rate, which also grades above-average. Hitting the ball hard in the air is the most ideal batted ball outcome, as these are the batted balls that generate the most offensive production, and Kurtz’s ability to hit the ball hard at ideal launch angles has allowed him to run such a high Power+ grade, a necessity considering the high bar of offensive production to clear at first base.
While Kurtz’s batted ball profile has been impressive so far this season, since he has faced fewer than a thousand pitches so far this season, it is fair to question whether or not his batted ball profile is sustainable or not. By using Statcast’s new bat tracking data, analyzing Kurtz’s bat speed and swing path data can provide us with a more predictive understanding of how Kurtz generates his batted ball results, since these metrics can become reliable in a sample size of only a handful of swings.
As shown by the table above, Kurtz has displayed top-of-the-scale bat speed this season, with his 77.8 MPH average bat speed ranking as the 5th fastest among batters with at least 50 competitive swings. Bat speed is the leading predictor of offensive production among the bat tracking metrics, and this high bat speed that Kurtz displays provides confidence that he will consistently be able to produce high exit velocities moving forward. Kurtz possesses a steep swing, with his swing path tilt of 39 degrees ranking as the 25th steepest swing in the league (minimum 50 competitive swings). This combination of high bat speed and steep swing path tilt indicates that Kurtz possesses a swing that is reliably capable of hitting the ball hard in the air, and the group of hitters who possess similarly fast and steep swings are among some of the best offensive players in Major League Baseball.
Among batters with at least 50 competitive swings, five players average at least 75 MPH bat speed and 38 degrees of swing path tilt: Riley Greene, James Wood, Ronald Acuña Jr., Aaron Judge, and Nick Kurtz. Each player on this list possesses a barrel rate of at least 16%, and Kurtz’s presence on this leaderboard provides confidence that he will be able to hit for a high barrel rate with consistency moving forward.
Referring back to the bat tracking table, Kurtz displays one of the deepest contact points in the league, with an average intercept point of 25.7 inches away from his center of mass. In a vacuum, most power production lives out in front of the plate with a contact point closer to the pitcher, as swings have more time to accelerate, create bat speed, and generate pulled fly balls; however, a deeper contact point might be ideal for Kurtz, given his existing plus bat speed. Combining a high attack angle with a deep contact point indicates that Kurtz is likely able to accelerate well throughout his swing, allowing him, in theory, more time to make a decision whether or not to swing at a given pitch, while still being able to make optimal contact.
While these swing characteristics allow him to have a deeper contact point in theory, Kurtz’s contact rate is far lower at the Major League level compared to the bat-to-ball ability he displayed at the Minor League and College levels. As shown by the table above, Kurtz has displayed a 69.0% contact rate at the Major League level so far this season, compared to the 70.2% contact rate he displayed at AAA and the 80.2% contact rate he displayed at Wake Forest last season. Part of this decline in contact can simply be attributed to the increase in the quality of pitching Kurtz has faced as he has progressed over the past couple of seasons. Major League pitching is better than AAA pitching, which is much better than ACC pitching, and it can be reasonably expected that any batter’s contact rate would decrease as they faced opposing pitchers with better stuff that is more difficult to square-up, and better command that allows pitchers to more easily attack a batter’s weaknesses.
In Kurtz’s FanGraphs preseason scouting report, Eric Logenhagen wrote, “Despite his size, Kurtz is a short-levered guy. His front arm basically bars as he loads his hands, but his T-Rex levers help keep his swing from getting too long. He has terrific vertical plate coverage and is a threat to do damage all over the zone. Big league pitchers are likely to attack Kurtz on the outer third with fastballs and changeups, which his short levers/open stride combo sometimes cause him to swing inside”. This portion of his evaluation has proven to be prophetic, as shown by the heat maps above, Kurtz has frequently been thrown pitches low-and-away during the beginning of his Major League career, and Kurtz has experienced difficulty making contact against these offerings. As visualized by Statcast’s batting stance data, Kurtz has displayed an open stride so far this season, allowing him to effectively turn on pitches located on the inner-third of the plate, but leaving him vulnerable to swing-and-miss on pitches located on the outer-third.
Does this vulnerability on low-and-away pitches threaten to derail Kurtz’s offensive profile? No, however, I believe that pitchers will (and should) continue to attack him with pitches in this area of the strike zone until he is able to improve his contact ability against these offerings. With an elite ability to generate ideal exit velocities and an above-average ability to make good swing decisions, Kurtz is allowed some room to have swing-and-miss in his profile, due to the high floor of offensive production his swing decision and power ability provide him with. I wouldn’t want to tinker with his stance and approach until he runs into a slump, however, slightly closing his stance to better reach these outside pitches and/or simply becoming more familiar with how these pitches look at the Major League level would allow Kurtz to close this hole and more frequently make contact on these pitches low and away.
Overall, Nick Kurtz has been arguably one of my favorite players to watch in Major League Baseball so far this season. With an elite swing geared for loft, Kurtz projects to run high barrel rates throughout the entirety of his Major League career, while he still could unlock another level of offensive production if he can address and improve his weakness against low-and-away pitches, improving his contact rate, decreasing his strikeout rate, and increasing his level of offensive output. Projection systems are interestingly split on Kurtz’s rest-of-season projections, with THE BAT X (which uses Statcast batted ball data) projecting Kurtz for a rest-of-season 103 wRC+, while OOPSY (which uses bat speed data) projects Kurtz for a rest-of-season 124 wRC+. I’m inclined to lean closer to OOPSY’s rest-of-season projection for Kurtz, since, as mentioned earlier in this article, Kurtz’s bat tracking data indicates that he possesses a swing similar to some of the best offensive players in Major League Baseball. While there are still areas for refinement in his offensive approach, Kurtz’s plus swing traits and swing decision ability provide him with an exciting foundation for long-term success. With one of the most powerful swings among young hitters, Nick Kurtz appears to be a middle-of-the-order force in the Athletics lineup for years to come.
Statistics as of the end of play on July 8th, 2025.
Feature image by Michael Packard (@CollectingPack on Twitter) | Photo by Rich Graessle/Icon Sportswire
