Baseball Savant’s swing path and attack angle leaderboard provides another valuable tool for evaluating hitters. When combined with last season’s swing speed and swing length data, these metrics help give a more complete picture of a hitter’s profile. Understanding these characteristics can help identify which adjustments a hitter may be able to make during the season and which may require more substantial work in the offseason.
Plenty of research has examined how hitters with flat bat paths perform compared to those with steeper ones. Generally, flatter paths will lead to higher contact rates and worse contact quality due to not lifting the ball enough. Steeper paths leave hitters more prone to swing and miss, but allow the chance for lots of line drives and more power.
Looking at hitters who are steep in both directions (VBA and Attack Angle), the performance difference is eye-popping relative to the flat group. Wow! pic.twitter.com/YSr7x4LqRq
— SwingGraphs (@SwingGraphs) May 31, 2024
Source: Rates and Barrels
One of the new metrics included is Swing Path Tilt, which essentially measures how flat or steep a hitter’s swing is right before they make contact. A lower angle indicates a flatter swing, while a higher angle is steeper. Possessing above-average bat speed and greater-than-average swing tilt looks to be a solid recipe for a chance of success for hitters. Several of 2025’s early breakout performers fit this profile: Ivan Herrera, James Wood, Zach Neto, Spencer Torkelson, among others.
Of course, some hitters possess these ideal traits, but they are less meaningful when overshadowed by major weaknesses elsewhere in the profile. Most commonly hit tool. Now, let’s look at a few young hitters who have some positive swing traits, but the results are not quite there.
Mitchell has dealt with multiple injuries in the past few seasons. But he’s always possessed intriguing raw tools along with flashes of turning them into production. His 76.1 MPH bat speed ranks near Pete Alonso, Willson Contreras, and Vladimir Guerrero Jr. His tilt and attack angle are right around average, but he’s displayed better marks in other years.
Mitchell is one of just three other hitters to rank in the 90th percentile in both bat and sprint speed. The other hitters include Corbin Carroll, Julio Rodriguez, and Cam Smith. However, it was a poor start for Mitchell as he slashed just .206/.286/.294 and a 31% strikeout rate before going down with an injury.
The upper-echelon bat speed is a great foundation for Mitchell to work with. He’s shown good tilt during his time in the majors, but he has yet to show the ability to make consistent contact. The 26-year-old has maintained good chase rates and the ability to hit the ball hard, but it hasn’t manifested in real production yet.
Garrett Mitchell Contact Heatmap 2024
For Mitchell’s career, the elevated fastball has eaten him up. He has only one career homer on any pitch in the upper third of the zone and whiffs 47% of the time with a .124 xSLG. Since his debut in 2022, his 47% whiff rate on pitches in the upper third or above the zone ranks seventh-highest among all hitters (min. 100 PAs). Pitchers have identified a hole in the zone for Mitchell and continue to poke at it. Even with the other appealing characteristics in Mitchell’s profile, the inability to make contact is most commonly what derails it. Mitchell suffered an oblique injury in late April and should be back sometime in the summer. He could be someone to keep an eye on.
Canario is another bat with premium bat speed and positive indicators with his swing path. He has latched onto a near-everyday role with Pittsburgh after being DFA’d by the Cubs earlier this season. It’s a good bet for the Pirates to make and indicates that they prioritize bat speed as an organization, ranking sixth in team bat speed since 2023.
The 25-year-old already has great damage metrics, with a 53% hard-hit rate and 18% barrel rate. Additionally, Canario is one of the most aggressive swingers in the league, but less out of control than your typical free swinger. When simply looking at the difference between zone swing rate and chase rate, Canario has the ninth highest mark out of 295 hitters (min. 100 PAs). And he rates in the 79th percentile in the advanced swing decision metric SEAGER, which stands for SElective AGgression Engagement Rate. The metric looks at a hitter’s ability to swing aggressively at pitches they can hit for damage and correlates to power. So there are good areas to build on from a raw power and approach perspective.
The flaws again come to the hit tool, which Fangraphs Prospect Report has as a future 30 and current 20. He rates in the fifth percentile for zone contact rate and the third percentile in whiff rate against secondaries. Generally, this makes for a volatile player who could go on a heater or not be relevant for fantasy purposes.
Baty has slugged five homers in May while also only striking out 23% of the time. He’s significantly increased his bat speed, adding nearly three MPH and ascending to an elite mark at 76.2. The 25-year-old has historically always had strong exit velocities, but also a major ground ball problem.
This season, however, Baty has lowered his ground ball rate by nearly 10 percentage points, dropping from 53.6% to 44.9%. He’s been able to turn his great raw power into game power by finally lifting the ball just a bit more, with a 14% barrel rate.
The swing path traits look promising for the former top prospect and put him into esteemed company. The only other hitters with at least 76 MPH bat speed and 35° tilt or higher are:
- Yordan Alvarez
- Nick Kurtz
- Shohei Ohtani
- Aaron Judge
Impressive company for rookie Nick Kurtz to find himself in as well. What sets Baty apart from those players is his 9° attack angle, while all the others are at 11° or higher. His path is not so steep that it leads to an untenable number of whiffs or pop-ups, and not so flat that he is consistently pounding the ball into the ground. While Baty appears settled into a platoon role for the foreseeable future, it’s a positive sign to see him taking the next step in his development.
Despite striking out at a 35% clip, there are things to be encouraged about with Dezenzo. The bat speed is down a few ticks from last season, but still above average. The steep 40° tilt explains some of the strikeout rate, but is also ideal for projecting his power.
He is already a barrel machine and doesn’t chase outside the zone. Despite his sub-par hit tool, he ranks in the 99th percentile for launch angle sweet-spot%, suggesting some degree of bat control and maybe a signal of the ability to improve in the future.
Dezenzo was receiving regular playing time for weeks earlier this season, but has been less consistent recently. With Yordan Alvarez set to be back soon, the opportunities for Dezenzo will fade further. While there won’t be an obvious position for him to play, there is still a chance that the Astros want to play their nine best bats regularly and give him plenty of reps at DH at some point.
As mentioned previously, Smith possesses high-end bat and sprint speed traits. Given the lack of major experience playing professional baseball, it’s been a promising start for the 22-year-old. Through his first 163 PA, he’s slashed an above-average .267/.344/.397 (116 wRC+). Despite the poor contact ability, he’s still managed to be 16 percent better than the average hitter.
Also, a consistent theme early in the season has been making good swing decisions. He doesn’t chase outside the zone often and already has decent damage metrics with a 42% hard-hit rate and 9% barrel rate. The 75.1 MPH bat speed and 36° tilt also put him in a favorable group of productive hitters.
Luis Robert Jr. is an interesting physical comparison for Smith. They are almost the same height and weight, with a rare blend of power and speed. Their swing paths share a similar steeper shape, and both pair it with elite swing speed. Smith doesn’t take advantage of his upper-tier sprint speed with steals, whereas Robert is among the league leaders in stolen bases. Impressively, however, Smith already looks super comfortable defensively in right field, ranking second in Defensive Runs Saved among qualified right fielders.
