The MLB draft is not the NFL or NBA draft. Not only is the draft not as simple as best player available goes at the highest slot, it is also the hardest sport to predict development. The eventual best players in the class rarely are taken at the top of the draft. There are top-five picks that never sniff their full potential, and there are ninth round picks from Seattle University that go on to win a Cy Young award. Will that being said, let’s take a look at three prospects to be cautious about when drafting in your FYPD.
Overvalued FYPD Prospects
Jac Caglianone – 1B/LHP, Kansas City Royals
This one is bold, and I fully expect some negative feedback on this take. I am completely split in my opinion of Caglianone. On one hand, I acknowledge the 40 home run potential he has. I recognize the adjustments he made between 2023 and 2024. And I believe in the athlete he is. But on the other hand he also has massive question marks that can be exposed in professional baseball.
The largest concern regarding Caglianone’s profile is the fact that he swings at everything. During his sophomore season, he only walked 17 times in a season where he lead the nation in home runs. You would be foolish to think that pitchers were intentionally throwing the nation’s home run leader enough pitches over the plate for him to only walk 17 times in 71 games. Caglianone was making that happen by swinging at every pitch thrown his way.
When looking at Caglianone’s chase rate for the 2023 season, he swung at 40.8% of the pitches out of the strike zone* (not a full season sample size because Florida’s home park does not have Trackman data). The surface level walk numbers improved from 2023 to 2024, rising to 58 from 17, but that came with 31 intentional walks. His 2024 chase rate tells a better story as it only improved to 37.4%. On the surface his OBP and walk numbers seemed significantly better, but looking at the combination of the chase rates and the 31 intentional walks, it seems Cags was able to mask his chase problem.
The reason this is such a large concern is because the pitching in professional baseball will be able to expose Cags’ chase tendencies. He gives pitchers no reason to throw anything over the plate. During his time between High-A and the Arizona Fall League, he only walked 15 times in 50 games, reverting back to the 2023 version of himself. It is obvious professional pitcher’s are not as scared of his power, and are able to get him to swing out of the strike zone. This is a major reason why he only hit .239 over those 50 games. He also had a hard time tapping into his power, only hitting seven home runs and slugging .414 in those 50 games.
For Cags to reach his ceiling, he will need to improve his swing decisions. Power hitters who consistently chase pitches of the strike zone do not last very long in the MLB, no matter how impressive the tools are. See: Javier Báez. If he can lay off pitches outside the strike zone, he has an elite combination of strength and contact skills (As seen below) that will make him a dynamic talent. But he has to give pitcher’s a reason to throw him pitches in the zone.
I don't want to read too much into AFL data… however, Jac's data deserve 👀, as do Kurtz' data, which are somewhat concerning on the opposite end. pic.twitter.com/TkHbCHUAfK
— Eli Ben-Porat (@EliBenPorat) November 15, 2024
Seaver King– SS, Washington Nationals
There is a common theme amongst hitters that I feel are overvalued: high chase rates. Seaver King is a dynamic athlete. He features elite bat speed with the athleticism to play anywhere on the field. There is an argument that he is the most athletic college talent in the class. The question mark for me is just how his game translates to the professional level.
King spent one season at Wake Forest, after dominating two seasons at D2 Wingate University. King’s story from D2 to first round pick is one that should be appreciated. But that doesn’t mean there are not questions about the 10th overall pick. The main concern is the aforementioned chase rate. During his season at Wake forest, King swung at 31.9% of pitches out of the zone. There were many moments, especially against high level pitching, that he was swinging at pitches significantly out of the strike zone. The assumption is in professional baseball, pitchers will attack that weakness from him.
While King chased a lot of pitches out of the strike zone, those problems did not lead to swing and miss. On the season, he had a 78.4% contact rate, which is not elite, but for a free swinger like King it is impressive. It shows that if King is able to improve his swing decisions, he has the requisite bat to ball skills to be successful. Combine that with a 93.2 mph average exit velocity, and the swing decisions are the only question mark surrounding his game. In a small sample size in A-ball, King hit for a .295 average but only had four extra base hits. For King to reach his potential, he has to hit for average and power.
Leading up to the draft, King received some comps to Mookie Betts, which is unfair to King. From an athleticism, positional flexibility, and plus bat speed perspective, I can see it. But what made Betts so special was the athlete combined with the right development. Do the Nationals have the player development to help King reach his ceiling? History tells us the Nationals have struggled developing home grown offensive talent. The combination of King’s chase rates, and the marriage to the Nationals, makes me value King below the 10th overall slot in the 2024 MLB class.
Jurrangelo Cijntje – SHP, Seattle Mariners
As much as scouts would never admit it, sometimes storylines increase draft stock. Jurrangelo Cijntje was one of the largest risers in the 2024 class. During the 2023 season, he pitched to a 8.10 ERA for Mississippi State, but took a major step forward in 2024 with a 3.67 ERA and 113 K’s in 90.2 IP. It was an impressive improvement, but what storyline inflated Cijntje’s draft stock? The fact that he is a switch pitcher.
What makes Cijntje such an interesting prospect is the fact that he is two separate prospects based on the arm he is using. (Yes, I did just write that sentence.) As a right-handed pitcher this season, Cijntje had a 34.1% strikeout rate and a 4.1% walk rate over 57 innings. He also only gave up four home runs, and a .173 batting average against. In 32.2 innings from the left side, his strikeout rate regressed to a 23.7% rate, and walk rate rose to 12.2%. Combine that with seven home runs, and a .265 average, and you can see how it is two completely different prospects. So what does that mean for his pro potential?
We haven’t seen Cijntje pitch in pro ball yet, but I would imagine the Mariners are planning on making him solely a right-handed pitcher. His stuff and command are significantly better, and their player development can easily build a game plan to attack lefties. One of the benefits for Cijntje being better from the right side, is the majority of hitters are right-handed, so there is not a platoon advantage. It will be fascinating to see what the plan is for Cijntje when he steps on the mound in the spring.
Ultimately, the questions surrounding what Cijntje is at the next level is why I believe he is potentially overvalued. Do I think the Mariners drafted him only looking at the dominance from the right side? Yes. Do I think a right-handed only Cijntje is worthy of the 15th pick in the draft? Yes. But I still think the overall body of work, included his left-handed production, leaves me with some questions. On top of that, I wouldn’t be surprised if many within the Mariners organization think their 2nd round selection of Ryan Sloan is the true top overall talent in their draft class.
Photo by Michael Wade/Icon Sportswire | Adapted by Doug Carlin (@Bdougals on Twitter)