Ben Pernick here, after analyzing the waiver wire options in Wednesday’s “Buy & Sell” articles, I’ll be approaching things from the flipside with “Patience or Panic” where I will take a look at some underperforming players and tell you whether you should hold them in hopes for a turnaround, or cut your losses and cut them lose. Without further ado, let’s a-do this.
Nick Castellanos - .209/.283/.353, 4 HR, 23 R, 25 RBI, 0 SB
Owning him may make you more desperate than Tom Hanks in Cast Away, and leave you talking to a baseball named Rawlings. The month of May has sure been tough for Castellanos owners, and soon many owners will be tempted to cast him off. After all the talk of this being his big power year, he only has 4 homers, with a with a career high 26.5 K%, and while defense doesn’t count in fantasy, his 11 errors don’t help the narrative. But before he’s Castellegone-os, consider one number: 46.9%. That’s his Hard%, and it’s 4th best in the league. Lest you think that means little, consider the other guys on this list: Sano, Goldschmidt, Tim Beckham (really), Khris Davis, Conforto. It goes on, but suffice to say, they are mostly great hitters. So let’s look at the supposed exception, Beckham. He has a 33.5% K rate and only 4.7% BB rate, and still has 8 HR and a .266 AVG. While he does have some BABIP luck, it’s also a reminder that Hard Hit balls generally help your BABIP, so Castellanos’s .273 BABIP should regress towards a much higher xBABIP. And in comparison to Beckham, Castellanos’ 27.2% K% isn’t so bad, especially since it comes with a 8.1% Walk Rate. That looks legit, as his 30.8% Chase Rate is a career best (career 34.1%), and though his Z-Contact is also a career low at 80.4% and Swstrk is at a high at 14.9%, those aren’t terrible for a power hitter, both are similar to Khris Davis in 2016, who had a chase rate of 31.3% and Swstrk% of 16.6%. And Castellanos, with a excellent Barrel/BBE of 14.0% (again, just behind Goldschmidt and Conforto) deserves far better than a 8.0% HR/FB, even playing half his games in Comerica. Power can catch up quickly, as anyone who owned 2016 K. Davis after a rotten April (or Dozier after a rough 1st half) may remember. As poor as he’s been lately, I’d cut him in 10-team formats, but I’d still advocate PATIENCE in deeper leagues.
