Welcome back to Week 15 of our Patience or Panic series, where we take a look at three struggling players and provide recommendations on how you should react to their slow starts and subpar performance. We’re in the thick of it now and can have more confidence in the underlying numbers.
Austin Riley, 3B, Atlanta Braves
Riley seems to be aging prematurely. After averaging a 132 wRC+ from 2022-2024 he had just a 103 wRC+. Guys are allowed to have down years, though, especially due to injury.
2026 has been worse. In 356 PA, he has a .211/.289/.340 slash, 28.9% K%, 8.1% BB%, and 75 wRC+. During Riley’s peak, he was an excellent source of power who also managed to strike out around 25%. That number has been closer to 29% the last two years, and his ISO is way down to .129 this year. He’s surrounded by middle infielders in that range. Is his bat slowing down? Is he pulling less?
His Bat Speed is largely unchanged and remains excellent. His Pull% is also about the same, and he is actually hitting more Fly Balls. A lot of his batted ball metrics remain unchanged, but his Barrel% the last two years is in the 10% range while it used to hang around 13-15%.
Verdict: Patience. I think this is a combination of accumulated injuries, a small decline in ability, and just being slightly off. He is just missing pitches. He has been known to go on red-hot tears, but those have been lacking the last couple of years. I think his peak is behind him, but if he can remain healthy and get into a rhythm, he can still be an above-average power hitter.
Spencer Steer, 1B/ OF, Cincinnati Reds
Overall, nothing seems unusual about Steer’s 2026. Aside from not running nearly as much as he did in 2024, his numbers are very similar to the rest of his career. He has a 99 wRC+. However, in the last month, he has taken a nose-dive.
In 101 PA since June 3, he has a .148/.2240/.330 slash, 26.7% K%, 10.9% BB%, and 52 wRC+. What happened?
This one’s pretty simple. He started hitting far more ground balls, nearly exclusively at the expense of line drives. His FB% has remained steady. His 58% GB% is the 6th highest in baseball since June 3. LD% is notoriously unstable, so is there something we can find that explains this sudden increase in GB%?
As one would expect, his Rolling Launch Angle took a sudden dive after June 3.
Verdict: Patience. I can find no meaningful changes that explain Steer’s sudden increase in GB%. This leads me to believe it is just part of the natural ebbs and flows that nearly every hitter goes through in a season. In fact, his FB EV is 5 points higher than the rest of his career and is 91st percentile. He’s been showing signs of hitting fewer ground balls. He might be in for a sudden power surge in the next few weeks.
Christian Yelich, OF, Milwaukee Brewers
Excluding the shortened 2020 season, Yelich’s 28.4% K% is the highest of his career, and his 96 wRC+ is the lowest. His outcomes have been declining as the year has gone on.
Hitting too many ground balls has always been an issue for Yelich, so even though his 54.5% GB% is high, that’s the territory it’s been in throughout his career.
What is most concerning is his contact ability. He’s consistently had an above-average Contact+ of over 100. Last year it dropped to 92, and this year is even worse.
Verdict: Panic. Yelich’s 121 wRC+ in 2025 was bolstered by an extremely high 42.6% HR/FB%. This masked his overall decline, virtually across the board, which has worsened in 2026. There is a glimmer of hope recently, though.
His Hard Hit% continues to rise, suggesting he may be due for better days. Unfortunately, this is just one positive in a sea of negatives. It’s hard to see him being terrible anytime soon, and he does still run a little, but there are many signs pointing to his decline.
Photos courtesy of Icon Sportswire | Adapted by Aaron Polcare (@abeardoesart on Bluesky and X)
