Patience or Panic: Bailey Ober, Jordan Hicks and Bo Bichette

How we react to short term performance in fantasy baseball can be the difference between a championship run and a wasted season. As we get into the heart of June, the trust can start to wear. Are the currently struggling players who we expected to anchor our teams more likely to continue with their slumps, or will their form return? Learning to determine where to rightfully panic, and maybe more importantly, where to have patience while capitalizing on the panic of others, is a skill that comes from looking past the box scores, the bad weeks, and the major slumps.

Romanticism aside, I’m excited to be a bi-weekly writer on this important article. Luck is naturally such a massive part of any game of inches, and baseball is certainly not immune. The process of the at-bats, or the pitches thrown, will always be more predictive in the long run than just assuming players that are performing poorly will continue to do so and vice versa. We know it doesn’t work that way and it would be boring if it did. So, let’s check out some of the players that have been hurting rosters recently and see if, based on whats going on under the hood, we can figure out how to proceed.

 

Bailey Ober, SP, Minnesota Twins

 

Season: 73.0 IP, 67 H, 39 ER, 20 BB, 73 K, 4.81 ERA, 1.19 WHIP

Since 5/17: 30 IP, 37 H, 21 ER, 12 BB, 28 K, 6.30 ERA, 1.63 WHIP

“But Justin, Bailey Ober just pitched an eight-strikeout Quality Start and earned a Win this weekend!” Against who, though? AGAINST WHO?!? I’m never one to discard stats, and Ober’s performance against the Oakland Athletics this past Sunday was encouraging, but if it wasn’t, I’m not sure there would even be much titular deliberation to be had here. Instead, we’d be in full on panic mode. Thank goodness he was able to pull it together against the lowly A’s and we get to have the discussion… but if we go deeper… six hits and two walks with a 100% LOB in less than seven innings to this offense should still have you pretty worried. It was Ober’s first start where he recorded an out past the fifth inning in over a month, when he threw a ten-strikeout, one-hit masterpiece in Toronto. That’s probably the last time you felt good about Ober’s performance, and it all went south from there.

In the five starts between the Jays and the A’s, Ober has combined to throw just 23.2 innings while surrendering 20 earned runs. That’s a 7.61 ERA, and to pair it with a 1.76 WHIP? Yikes. The 20Ks kept a decent K/9 rate, but the ten walks in the same span illustrate worrisome control issues that have made him the type of pitcher to either really have it or really not. Ober relies heavily on the high heater and then mixes in the changeup and splitter, a “Blake Snell Blueprint” type of pitcher that really works up and down on hitters. We know he can be effective, so what do we do?

Verdict: Patience – In these ‘bad’ starts we have seen the Guardians get to the fastball (.500 BABIP), the Royals hit three bombs on him (read: bad variance), and the Pirates somehow be able to get six hits on the offspeed/breaking pitches (.500 BABIP, again). The truly bad start was against the Yankees, really not sure what was going on there, but even in that one he allowed a short porch-job home run that barely left the park and wouldn’t have been a home run in most other venues. More importantly, the whiffs have been in the double digits in all of these poor performances (aside from in New York), but I think we can forgive him for struggling against one of the best offenses in baseball, just as his team historically does.

Might you want to be a bit careful against some of the stronger offenses? Yes. Specifically the ones that have players that can work walks and have lower swinging strike rates like the Guardians. The 12 walks in the last six starts, including the A’s, are the only thing I’m seriously worried about, but I’m going to give Ober the benefit of the doubt. He only had eight walks in his first eight starts. Plus, the Twins have been looking better, the offense is picking up, and their upcoming schedule is highly favorable. I’m putting offers out for Ober, trying to get him for cheap, and seeing if current owners are frustrated enough to move him for less than he’s truly worth. I expect him to turn the corner between now and the end of July.

 

 

Jordan Hicks, SP, San Fransisco Giants

 

Season: 76.2 IP, 66 H, 24 ER, 28 BB, 68 K, 2.82 ERA, 1.23 WHIP

Since 5/30: 18.2 IP, 22 H, 9 ER, 9 BB, 20K, 4.34 ERA, 1.66 WHIP

I don’t want to call it a trend, but facing the Yankees and walking too many hitters is an easy way to end up under the Patience or Panic microscope. Will we get the same verdict for Hicks as we did with Ober? Well, you can easily see the bolded verdict, but we have to investigate a little bit more.

My initial issue with Hicks, especially in QS leagues, is that he is not efficient with his pitches. There are only three outings this season of 15 total where he has recorded more than 16 outs. His average outing length is almost exactly five innings, and that’s to be expected as he moves from the bullpen into a starter role, but what does that mean when those five innings aren’t elite? Which, as of late, they have not been.

Another similarity to our first player, Hicks is coming off a nice looking, scoreless outing against the Cubs this past Monday. However, it was a four hit and four walk night with a 100% LOB, obviously since it was scoreless, and I’m not too pleased with that. Let’s peel back some layers here, though, Hicks has been sick. Not like sick as in awesome; physically ill, recovering from a bout of the flu, and it has been evident with his sinker down two ticks in both his most recent starts against the Cubs and Astros.

The two starts before that? Well, he pitched in Arizona which is tough to do with the arid conditions, and got knocked around for six hits with another four walks. And that was right after he faced those pesky Yankees who lit him up for five runs (four earned) on seven hits. If you’re keeping count at home, that’s all of what goes into the ‘Since 5/30’ stat line above.

Verdict: Panic –  Hicks is just not doing it for me. It’s really the lack of efficiency that pushes me over the line. His best performances have come at home, one of the best parks to pitch in and literally the toughest park to draw a walk in, and whenever he’s on the road he becomes a much bigger liability (1.02 WHIP at home vs 1.50 away). His xERA is a full run higher than his actual, and his four wins are comprised of two starts against the Rockies, one against the Nationals and the final one at Petco Park, another elite pitching venue.

This isn’t to say you must abandon ship, but I do not see a silver lining. Hicks isn’t going to all of a sudden start going six plus innings, he’s shown you who he is in that respect. He’s likely safe to deploy at home against worse teams, but has multiple walks in more than half of his starts while also having a 80%+ LOB rate in five of his last seven! We are likely lucky that his line looks as solid as it does so far. I am being selective or selling, and certainly not relying on him as a cornerstone of my rotation, especially with a tough part of the schedule on the horizon in July.

 

Bo Bichette, SS, Toronto Blue Jays

 

Maybe it’s a faux pas to repeat players, as Bichette has made the article already this season (and so has Ober), but he’s a high draft capital player – one that, if you own him, you definitely spent a lot to get – and he’s dragging you down. There’s no ifs, ands, or buts about it – it has not gotten easier to determine Bichette’s fate since his ‘Panic’ verdict on May 8th. As of Tuesday June 18, Bichette was placed on the 10-Day IL with a calf strain, adding to the long list of injuries that have plagued the star shortstop since last season. Patellar tendinitis, quad strain, neck spasms, and now a calf strain will keep him sidelined for at least another seven days.

I’m going to cut to the chase on the Verdict rather than paint the same picture owners have been hearing for a while – Bo just isn’t healthy. It happens to baseball players, frequently, and being able to buy in for cheap when there are signs of life amongst the injuries can help you add late season studs from owners who are panicking.

Verdict: Patience – Yeah, that’s right, patience. Shocking, maybe, but this is where you buy Bo Bichette. He had 12 multi-hit games since May 8th to go with 12 hitless games. 16 of his 28 RBIs this season came in that 35 game span, as well as three of his four home runs. It’s by no means great, but his 100 PA rolling xWOBA climbed up to .392 just before the calf injury. More importantly, he’s hitting the ball better – exit velocities were on the rise and his swing percent has dropped. It looked, to me, like he was starting to make better choices and figure out the issues he was having. Did I mention that his BABIP is below .335 in a season for the first time in his career? It’s sitting at .271, and there’s a 36 point differential between his wOBA and xWOBA. He should figure it out.

I think this is probably one of the cheapest acquisition spots for a player of his caliber, maybe in his career. He is an elite dynasty asset and he’s probably riding the pine right now in most weekly leagues, even before the injury announcement. With redraft owners likely looking to ’salvage’ that capital, this is where you be aggressive. I think the week on the IL will likely work wonders for Bichette, he will continue to be a fixture at the top of the Toronto lineup upon his return, and if someone’s selling for less than what they paid – I’m buying and trusting him to regain his form.