Welcome back to Week 19 of our Patience or Panic series, where we profile struggling players and provide recommendations on how you should react to their poor performance. It might be hard to believe, but we only have about a quarter of the season left! As the number of games remaining continues to dwindle, one thing that becomes more important is a team’s schedule, especially for starting pitchers. One upcoming start represents over 10% of their remaining volume. As a result, we need to deemphasize the skills of an individual pitcher and focus more on matchups. Schedule matters for hitters too, but there’s less variance between them. This week, I will be breaking down one highly-touted rookie one young player that has had some success so far in his short career but is having a rough go of it lately. Because I dove a little bit deeper than usual, only two players are included instead of the typical three. All stats are through the games of Monday, August 4.
Chase Burns, SP, CIN
2025: 0-3, 28.1 IP, 47 Ks, 6.04 ERA, 1.48 WHIP
Burns made his debut in late June, so I’ve elected to just include his season-long numbers and not what he’s done over the last month. However you slice it, it hasn’t been pretty. Seven starts into his big-league career, Burns is still seeking his first win, though rain cut short his most recent outing on Saturday at the Speedway Classic.
On the bright side, Burns has been racking up strikeouts at a prolific rate. Prior to Saturday, he had whiffed 10 in each of his last three starts, leaving no doubt about the legitimacy of his stuff. Burns’ 36.4% strikeout rate (99th percentile) is strongly supported by a 16.2% swinging strike rate (97th percentile). It wouldn’t be surprising to see Burns be among the league leaders in strikeouts for years to come. His slider is the big whiff pitch in his arsenal, coming in at over 90 MPH on average with 5.5 inches of sweep. The velocity isn’t the only thing that’s notable about the pitch; it grades in the 90th percentile or better in chase rate (49%), swinging strike rate (24.3%), and CSW% (36.4%).
While the slider is great, it’s also Burns’ only reliable secondary offering. He throws either his fastball or slider 93% of the time, and it makes him vulnerable to hard contact, much in the same way as Spencer Strider. As impressive as the whiffs are, the contact quality is equally concerning. Burns ranks among the league’s worst in xBABIP (.367, 1st percentile), line drive rate (27.1%, 4th percentile), and ideal contact rate (47.1%, 3rd percentile).
Verdict: Patience… for now. My first draft of this week’s article had me recommending panic because of the imminent return of Hunter Greene, but then Nick Lodolo left his start early on Monday with a blister and landed on the IL. As a result, Burns’ rotation spot is secure, at least for now. He was the most likely to get the boot with the return of Greene because of results and workload concerns. The only other option would have been Brady Singer (115.2 IP, 4.36 ERA, 1.31 WHIP), as Nick Martinez was already relegated to bullpen duty after the Reds acquired Zack Littell. Now, Martinez will be replacing Lodolo in the rotation and figures to only get one start before Greene’s return.
But anyway, back to Burns. I have faith in him continuing to improve his ratios with every start and be a great source of strikeouts while he does it. That should start Friday in a great matchup against the Pirates. But, the schedule won’t be as favorable for him the rest of the way, and Lodolo’s blister won’t last forever. The Reds have the toughest remaining strength of schedule according to Tankathon. With concerns about difficult matchups in the last month and the security of his rotation spot, I would try to sell Burns after a couple of strong starts. If no one bites because of the ugly ratios, sit back and enjoy the Ks until he likely gets bumped from the rotation.
Lawrence Butler, OF, ATH
Last 30 days (since 7/6): 95 PA, .143/.226/.286 (40 wRC+), 10 R, 4 HR, 9 RBI, 3 SB
2025: 469 PA, .233/.304/.406 (95 wRC+), 61 R, 15 HR, 44 RBI, 17 SB
Butler was excellent in his first full season in the majors last year, slashing .262/.317/.490 (130 wRC+) with 22 HR and 18 SB in just 125 games. That enticing power-speed blend and a premium lineup spot in an exciting A’s offense had him skyrocketing up draft boards. Butler went inside the top 60 in both the NFBC Main Event and Rotowire Online Championship. While he hasn’t been bad this year, he’s fallen short of returning value. According to the Fangraphs player rater, he’s been the 83rd ranked hitter and 119th player overall in 12-team 5×5 leagues.
Considering he’s only hitting .143 in the last month, the rest of Butler’s stats aren’t actually that bad, so I’ll give him credit for that. However, his rolling Process+ chart indicates that we have seen a downturn in his contact and power, a worrying combination. As the chart above shows, Butler was in a similar funk earlier this season, so all isn’t necessarily lost. However, the contact concerns are legitimate. Butler ranks in the 6th percentile in whiff rate (33.6%, 6th percentile) and 15th percentile in swinging strike rate (15.7%). He also struggles mightily against lefties, slashing .174/.220/.349 (51 wRC+) against them this year with seven times as many strikeout as walks. His career numbers are better, but it’s still only a 86 wRC+.
Verdict: Panic. Like many of my recommendations here, the direction that you go depends on how you are setting the bar. I believe in Butler’s ability to snap out of this slump and comfortably post a 20/20 season with a solid amount of runs. However, I don’t like his chances of going on a heater to end the year, and if he doesn’t he won’t come close to returning the value you were hoping for at pick 55. As a result, I’m going with panic. The home park is great, and the lineup is solid. But, the concerns against lefties are real and will impact his volume for the rest of the year, not to mention in the future as the A’s get more competitive. With the A’s facing lefties in their last two games, Butler has sat both times and gets bumped down pretty far in the lineup against southpaws when he’s not riding the pine. Even with 25/25 potential, that profile is one of a player who might not belong inside the top 100.
