Welcome to Week 13 of our Patience or Panic series! Here, we look at notable underperformers and try to provide some answers. What’s going wrong? What’s going right? How might the second lead to the correction of the first? And most importantly, what value might they be?
George Springer, OF/DH, Toronto Blue Jays
It’s somewhat of a mystery how someone can have a career year at age 35. And yet that’s exactly what George Springer did a season ago. The Blue Jays outfielder posted a career-best in batting average, OBP, slugging, and OPS. He finished with a .959 OPS, a number third only to Aaron Judge and Shohei Ohtani, the MVPs of their respective leagues. A Silver Slugger followed, as did a seventh-place finish in the MVP voting. It was a fairytale, albeit one without a happy-ever-after. Ohtani’s Dodgers beat Springer’s Blue Jays despite his best efforts.
Still, optimism lingered. Springer was not just back after a career-worst 2024; He was better than ever. He’d spend his twilight years mashing in Toronto and maybe, just maybe, finishing what he started last October.
Almost into July, that doesn’t seem to be the case. Springer’s numbers are down. Way down. Through 55 games, the now-36-year-old is hitting .223/.313/.389 with a .701 OPS and 100 wRC+. The only comparable season is Springer’s 2024, when he ranked 113th in fWAR among 129 qualified players. Right now, for what it’s worth, his 0.1 fWAR is 137th out of 155 players.
Before diving into the numbers and the whys, something should be stated: Springer’s only played 55 of a possible 77 games due to injury. A fractured toe on April 11 cost him 15 games. Another hit-by-pitch in that same toe cost him a few more games. Then there’s the usual rest and maintenance that comes with being a 36-year-old baseball player. He has not been healthy. That is a factor, yes. But Springer’s woes predate his injury. Before fracturing his foot, he was hitting .185/.290/.370 with a .661 OPS. Injuries aren’t why Springer is struggling. They’re just one of the many unfortunate turns of his 2026 season.
Okay. Caveat issued. Now onto the data. The chief concern in that regard is Springer’s batted-ball data. His HardHit% is down 10.3%, his Barrel% is down 7.9%, and his Barrel/PA is down five. The first two are among the biggest year-to-year changes in baseball. The decrease in Springer’s HardHit% is the seventh-most pronounced in baseball, while the drop in his Barrel% is tied for the fourth-most. There. That should be it. It’s an open-and-shut case.
Except, like all great investigations, there’s far more gray than black and white. See, Springer’s batted-ball data is excellent. It, like many things in 2025, was the best of his career. Contrasting Springer’s numbers with those of that year will lead to skewed results. Contrast his numbers with his career, and the data shows Springer hasn’t fallen off a cliff. For instance, from 2016 to 2024, Springer averaged a 40.2 HardHit% and a 10.1 Barrel%. This year, he touts a 37.3 HardHit% and a 8.3 Barrel%. Down, yes. As drastic as it is compared to 2025? Not remotely.
So if it’s not just that, what is it? One of Springer’s issues is that he isn’t hitting fastballs or breaking balls. Opponents are feeding him more of the second, possibly recognizing the difference between his batting average versus his xBA on the pitch in 2025. Then, he hit .305 against breaking balls despite a xBA of .259. A similar dip appears in his power, with a .556 slug rather than a .492 xSLG. That information might be what led to the change in Springer’s pitch percentage this season. Regardless, it’s working. Springer is hitting .203 on breakers this season with a 30.2 Whiff%.
The sliders and sweepers are near magic bullets. Springer is hitting .211 on all sliders and .115 against all sweepers. He’s especially swinging through the first, carrying a 37.5 Whiff% and 11 strikeouts.
All of this culminates in one conclusion: Outside of 2025, Springer’s been a worse Blue Jay than he was an Astro. As an Astro, he hit for .270/.361/.491 with an .852 OPS. He posted a 44.3 HardHit% and a 4.8 HR%. As a Blue Jay, he’s hitting .259/.341/.344 with a .796 OPS. As for the advanced stats, he has a 41.3 HardHit% and a 4.2 HR%. Call it age. Call it some change not-yet-mentioned. The truth is just that.
The other truth is this: The further away Springer’s gotten from his toe injury, the better he’s gotten. Over his last fifteen games, he’s hitting .255/.373/.473, and in the last seven games, he’s hitting .321/.375/.571. Seeing Springer’s power come back is especially encouraging. It’s partly what fueled his stellar 2025 season. If he’s going to get back to slugging, he’s going to crack the case.
The Verdict: See how these next weeks play out. If these last two weeks are real, buy. Toronto is getting healthy on the whole. Their surge might be coming soon.
Kazuma Okamoto, 3B, Toronto Blue Jays
Kazuma Okamoto entered this season as a great unknown. Then he started hitting tanks. And not just wall-scrapers, but full-fledged Schwarber and Stanton-esque second-deckers. We’re talking 453, 430, and 423 feet. No ball nor fan is safe from his wrath, and due to it, Okamoto is making a name for himself stateside.
Underlining it, his season, and his emergence is his power. Okamoto’s .443 slugging percentage is sixth among all third basemen, his .214 ISO is fourth, and his 16 home runs are tied for first with LA’s Max Muncy and Chicago’s Miguel Vargas. So it should be no surprise to find Okamoto’s exceeding in other stats. For instance, he’s in the 91st percentile in HardHit% and Barrel%, and is barreling 8.5 balls per plate appearance. In other words, it’s all gravy, right? Why is Okamoto even on this list?
Answering that means explaining who Okamoto used to be. Back in Japan, Okamoto had power, yes. He led the Central League in homers three times, clubbed 248 homers, and 281 doubles across 11 seasons in the NPB. That card is and continues to play true, no matter which continent he’s on, whether it be Asia or North America. Yet what hasn’t translated, and partly what made Okamoto a six-time NPB All-Star, is his power. Across those 11 seasons, Okamoto hit .277. He hit at or over .275 five times. He was not Japan’s Stanton. He could hit explosives and a moving target. There was precision and power.
In MLB, Okamato only possesses power. His .229 average is 18th among 22 qualified third basemen. Furthermore, it ranks 125th out of a player pool of 155. It’s not bad luck, either. Okamoto’s xBA is .221, just a smidge better than what reality’s induced. He is, more or less, a one-trick pony stateside. And that is why we’re here. See, the question isn’t whether Okamoto is worth a pick-up. He is. Exceedingly. He is a premier power hitter already, and he’s just three months into MLB. Imagine what he can be with a year under his belt.
The question is this: Can Okamoto reach his ceiling? Because if he can, there are no doubts. If he can add contact and average to the power he’s already achieved, this is a prime middle-of-the-order bat. And despite being 30, he can be that for years to come; Not just for Toronto, but for any fantasy GM smart enough to know his name, his talent, and his potential.
To determine if Okamoto can reach that ceiling, one has to know what’s holding him back. The answer would be himself. Okamoto is inarguably one of the least disciplined players in baseball. His 32.4 K%and 99 strikeouts are the most in baseball. The only player close to him is Atlanta’s Austin Riley, and 3.5% and 10 strikeouts separate them. Likewise, he has a 34.3 Whiff%, placing him in the seventh percentile. To his credit, he does refrain from chasing, doing so only 25.9% of the time. But on the whole, Okamoto is whiffing through pitches, often for strike three.
In particular, it’s sinkers that the third baseman is struggling with the most. Okamoto is seeing the pitch 20.2% of the time, and it’s tearing him apart like a .50 caliber shell. Against it, Okamoto is hitting .196 with a much more muted .357 slugging percentage. That said, there are silver linings. Okamoto touts a much-improved .241 xBA and .423 xSLG and is only whiffing through it 26.2%. He also has a 54.5 HardHit% against all sinkers, third-best against any pitch.
Where Okamoto isn’t having nearly as much success is against sliders, sweepers, and cutters. He has a 49.4 Whiff% and a 43.2 K% on all sliders, a 41.1 Whiff% and 47.1 K% on all sweepers, and a a 43.1 Whiff% and 40 K% on all cutters. And outside of a xBA of .250 on all sliders, there’s no cheating. Okamoto’s xBA on sweepers is .129. On cutters, it’s .084. It is the lowest xBA on all cutters in baseball. Just as bad is his .107 xSLG, which is also the lowest in baseball.
These are serious, real problems. To be blunt, they are what’s holding Okamoto back. Hitting for power the way he has is stellar. It’s incredible. But he can be so much more dynamic at the dish. At least he was in Japan. And maybe he’ll soon do it in MLB. Over his last 15 games, Okamoto is hitting .259 with a .317 OBP. That’s progress. Yet the opposite also shows in the last week, where he’s back to hitting .217.
The Verdict: Buy and hope for better. As stated already, Okamoto would be welcome in any lineup as he is. But there is so much more tread on his track.
Jeff McNeil, UTIL, Athletics
At one point, Jeff McNeil was the Flying Squirrel. This was back when every player on the Mets worth a headline in the New York tabloids needed a nickname — Thor, The Dark Knight, The Polar Bear, the deGrominator. Some fit more than others. Some lasted more than others. But in McNeil’s case, it was warranted, earned, and a calling card. He could man the infield and outfield, make defensive plays at both, all while hitting exceptional baseball.
Seriously. McNeil’s .307 batting average from 2018 to 2022 is tied for the third-best in baseball during that span. The only hitters better than him were Luis Arraez and Freddie Freeman. McNeil was reaching great heights. Now, he’s not a Met. He’s not thought of as the Flying Squirrel. Worse, he’s reaching great lows.
Right now, Jeff McNeil is hitting .234/.306/.320 with a .626 OPS and a 73 wRC+. In other words, he’s not hitting. He’s gone from the third-best average in baseball over four years to ranking 117th out of 155 qualified players this season. And to some extent, this isn’t a surprise. McNeil’s done anything except soar since 2024, hitting .239/.318/.381 with just a .699 OPS and a 97 wRC+. He’s become landlocked, clinging to branches rather than leaping off them and taking flight. Still, it’s a staggering change. Arraez and Freeman, his then-only company, have kept pace. McNeil hasn’t. Why?
Explaining McNeil’s 2026 season comes somewhat simply. He isn’t hitting the ball hard, nor is he barreling balls. He’s doing the latter less than almost anyone in all of baseball. Really. His 1.1 Barrel% is fifth-worst in all of baseball, while his 0.8 Barrel/PA is seventh. Arraez is right up there in both categories. He always has been with a career 2.3 Barrel% and a 2.0 Barrel/PA. McNeil, on the other hand, had a career 3.3 Barrel% before this season. And the -4.0% decline in his Barrel% compared to last season is 25th-highest in all of baseball.
This all manifests McNeil into one of the worst power hitters in the game. Despite playing on the West Coast and its early heat, McNeil has career lows in slugging percentage — .320 — and ISO — .086. Forget about career lows. Those are among the worst in all of the Majors. McNeil’s slugging percentage is 147th out of 155 qualified hitters. His ISO is 148th. Concurrently, his exit velocity is also down.
All of this is fine when separated from context. McNeil was never a power hitter. He was contact-first and always, hitting .329, .318, .311, and .326 when he won the 2022 batting title. During that time, he hit more than 15 home runs in just one season. Except during those seasons, 2018 to 2022, McNeil also averaged a .458 slugging percentage. He is so far removed from all his old numbers now. And that’s the issue. McNeil doesn’t need to barrel balls. He doesn’t even need to make hard contact. His value exists in his batting average. Arraez knows that. He’s nurtured it through time, and it’s what’s kept him around. McNeil, for a variety of reasons, hasn’t. His wings are clipped. It’s what led to him being thrown from New York to Sacramento.
In all of these numbers and averages, there is a divide. A before and after. There is the McNeil of 2018-2022, and then there is the McNeil of 2023-present. What coincides with those eras is the shift. Yes, the shift. Before there was “analytics,” this was baseball’s biggest buzzword for Mr. and Mrs. Joe Q. Average.
The everyman and the old heads often derided the shift. And eventually, MLB took its side in… 2023. That season was the first to feature the stated mandate that all four infielders must be on the infield third, with exactly two infielders positioned on either side of second base. And with that ruling, McNeil’s decline followed. His OPS went from .836 in 2022 to .711 in 2023. It dipped further to .692 in 2024, only to jump up in 2025 before plummeting to a career low this season.
It’s odd. Downright strange. MLB parsed down the shift to promote hitting. More singles, more doubles, please. Yet McNeil has enjoyed less success in a shiftless baseball. Part of the problem is opponents giving him more breakers and fewer fastballs until this season. Part of it is they’re feeding him more offspeed pitches now, and he’s hitting .180 against them. But most of all, it’s that McNeil always outperformed expectations. His batting average was almost always higher than his xBA. From 2018 to 2022, McNeil bested expectations in four of five seasons. Interestingly, he’s now underperforming against them. Maybe that’s a sign of hope. Maybe the squirrel has enough in him for one last flight.
The Verdict: Unless he takes off, take him off. Evidence says McNeil’s winged spirit animal nowadays is a roasted duck.
All stats accurate as of 6/22/26
