Welcome back to Week Fourteen of our Patience or Panic series, where we take a look at three struggling players and provide recommendations on how you should react to their slow starts and subpar performance. The All-Star Break is still a couple of weeks away, but the true halfway point is already here. Can these players finish strong?
Jarren Duran, OF, Boston Red Sox
No one may be happier to see the calendar turn to July than Jarren Duran, who may be in for a huge month if his streaky form continues its regular pattern. Duran struggled through April with a .170 average and just one home run before putting together a monster May. He homered on the first and last day of May, and seven other times in between, hitting .261 for the month and adding five steals, flashing the five-tool ceiling we saw in his 2024 breakout campaign. The winds changed again in June, crashing back down to a .152 average and a 35% strikeout rate for the month. So how much stock do we put into one excellent month sandwiched between two bad ones?
A couple of trends are working in opposite directions thus far, indicating regression is likely for Duran the rest of the way, not all positive or negative. His home-run pace should slow significantly, but the .244 BABIP gives hope to see his average rise, and in turn, the stolen bases. Duran has never had a season finish with a BABIP below .300, so it wouldn’t be a surprise to see something a little closer to last year’s .256 average the rest of the way. For that to be possible, the 30% strikeout rate will have to improve.
Altogether, Duran’s profile should only be prioritized for managers in need of steals, where you can stream for matchups against RHP, especially those with lower-strikeout rates. In shallower formats and points leagues, it’s not worth chasing the ceiling for a player that likely already hit it a month ago. Sam Antonacci and Bryson Stott are available in about half of all leagues and provide more consistency for stolen bases without giving up much upside.
Verdict: Panic
Daylen Lile, OF, Washington Nationals
In just his second season in MLB and at only 23 years old, it appears the league has adjusted how to attack Daylen Lile. With a .251 average, eight home runs, and seven stolen bases so far, Lile is on pace to be a 15-15 hitter this season, a solid contributor to complete an outfield in many leagues. However, the last month is showing the floor could be much lower than that. Lile had a streak with four home runs in as many games, ending with a 3-4 performance on May 15th against the Orioles, and has struggled mightily since.
Including his rookie numbers, there’s a steady decline across Lile’s first 700 plate appearances, a little bit more than a full season’s worth of playing time. There’s neither enough of a track record to count on nor a high enough ceiling to chase for managers to wait this out. It’s best to look elsewhere until he shows us something different to think otherwise.
Verdict: Panic
JJ Bleday, OF, Cincinnati Reds
After a disappointing 2025 campaign and starting this season in AAA, many managers dumped JJ Bleday back to waivers when his red-hot eight-home-run May evaporated into a cool .161-average June. Surely, May was just an exception, right? Like Pitcher List’s own Scott Chu says at the start of every Hitter List article:
Regardless of true talent, anyone talented enough to make it to the big leagues can be brilliant or putrid for 50 to 100 at-bats.
Despite the poor average, there’s enough reason to believe that Bleday’s May performance was no fluke. The BB% and K% remained consistent in both May and June, at around 13% and 20%, respectively. Quality of contact rates show no obvious signs to explain the drop in average either. Bleday still hit four home runs in a “bad” month and has a wonderful schedule ahead that could add to that season total. Beginning July 1, the Reds will play in HR-friendly Cincinnati or Denver for 22 of their next 31 games. Now is the time to buy low, as reality is likely somewhere in the middle, and plenty good enough to be rostered in more leagues.
Verdict: Patience
Photos courtesy of Icon Sportswire | Adapted by Aaron Polcare (@abeardoesart on Bluesky and X)
