Welcome back to Week Twenty-Two of our Patience or Panic series, where we take a look at three struggling players and provide recommendations on how you should react to their slow starts and subpar performance.
“Blessed is he who expects nothing, for he shall never be disappointed.” – Alexander Pope
Jeremy Peña, SS, Houston Astros
One of the most consistent hitters has hit a wall in August. Injuries have kept Jeremy Peña on the field for less than 90 games this season, but he’s made the most of them. He’s on a 162-game pace for 30 HR and 16 SB, hitting atop the Houston order, and raising the ceiling on an already desirable 20-20 profile in his career to date. Over his last two seasons, Peña has improved his pull air rate to over 20%, making more frequent visits to the Crawford Boxes in LF. He’s amassed an OPS over .900 each of the last two seasons at home, more than 200 points higher than he’s managed on the road.
After he first returned from the IL in mid-May, Peña had hit .286 or better in every month, and peaked in July with a .386 average and six HR in just 68 PA. However, August has been unkind. He’s become more aggressive at the plate, chasing at 44% of pitches outside the zone and striking out 31% of the time, a huge increase from his career average of 20%. The high chase rate has always been part of Peña’s profile, but his bat-to-ball skills have normally been good enough to make up for it. His Contact+ grade on the season is 98, which would be his lowest mark since his rookie season in 2022, putting our expectations of Peña to the test.
Simply put, don’t overthink this one. Peña has solidified his status as the leadoff hitter, with Yordan Alvarez backing him up. It’s very difficult to find hitters who can hit for average and power, and Peña has proven reliable over a large sample. With the Astros in the middle of a division battle down the stretch, continue to ride with him and trust he can turn it around with the Mets, White Sox, and Diamondbacks up next on the schedule.
Verdict: Patience
Esmerlyn Valdez, 1B/OF, Pittsburgh Pirates
Esmerlyn Valdez became a household fantasy name in late June, rattling off four straight games with a HR, en route to a binge of 12 long balls over a 25-game stretch. The dust has settled. In 25 games since, Valdez is hitting .183 and hit his first HR on Monday night off a Robbie Ray fastball. Now that we’ve seen some of the good and the bad, it feels like a good time to make sense of what Valdez has to offer in the long term.
Joey Gallo, is that you? Currently, three qualified hitters are in the bottom 10% in BB%, while in the top 10% in both K% and Barrel%. Essentially, these are the three-true-outcome guys who have the highest chance to contribute to a pitcher’s FIP when they step into the box. Those three would be Kyle Schwarber, Nick Kurtz, and Munetaka Murakami. Valdez isn’t qualified, but he’d be the fourth, completing our Mount Rushmore and dangling an intoxicating upside right in front of our faces. Is he that good? Probably not. But does he have to be?
Well, the Pirates have certainly bought in. Valdez has oscillated with Brandon Lowe between second and fourth in the Pittsburgh order, which has quietly put together a great season. Those in OBP leagues have nothing to worry about, but even managers in standard leagues should keep holding and hope that HR on Monday night can start a new power surge to close out the regular season. You’ll have a hard time finding much better upside on the wire.
Verdict: Patience
Dylan Crews, OF, Washington Nationals
Expectations can warp our understanding of the truth. Dylan Crews was the 2nd overall pick in the 2023 draft and was understandably promoted with plenty of hype as a top-10 prospect in MLB in 2024. A sub-.700 OPS cratered those expectations and left us wanting more. Somehow, though, Crews is being ignored? “Disappointing” in this case is a player with 20 HR and 27 SB over his last 650 PA, or just over one full season. The true thing holding him back has been just that – playing time. But for the next five weeks, that’s not of concern. The Nationals sold at the deadline and have moved Crews straight into the top half of their lineup beginning this week.
Yes, his low .200s batting average is concerning. Statcast has his expected average nearly 30 points higher for those interested. But this argument really comes down to the tools. Crews is an excellent base stealer, can hit for power, and is still only 24 years old. The name has kept many from looking at this objectively. This is a 20-20 player that the industry has decided is playing at his floor, but how much different is that production from what Dansby Swanson or Jarren Duran have put together this year? Buying into that, with the potential for more, is a no-brainer in deeper leagues.
Verdict: Patience
Photos courtesy of Icon Sportswire | Adapted by Aaron Polcare (@abeardoesart on Bluesky and X)
