As the season comes to a close, there is little insight I can offer to benefit the few remaining fantasy managers in the next 5 days. So, for the final installation of Patience or Panic in 2023, I thought it might be fun to take a quick look at some players who underperformed expectations this year and whether we should worry about their future.
MJ Melendez, C/OF/DH, Kansas City Royals
Melendez graduated from the Royals’ farm system in 2022 when he slashed .217/.313/.393 with 18 home runs and 62 RBI in 129 games. Not much of an average, but he outperformed expectations in the on-base department and flashed the power we read about in his prospect reports. His promising rookie campaign and catcher eligibility made him an intriguing player heading into 2023.
The 24-year-old improved his average to .233 in 2023, but that’s about where the positives end. Despite playing in 15 more games, he’s fallen short of his 2022 marks in RBI and home runs and scored just 6 more runs.
Though his average improved, his OBP regressed, thanks in large part to a drop in walk rate. This seeming drop in plate discipline is supported by a corresponding uptick in his K rate.
Verdict: Patience. It’s not all doom and gloom for Melendez. He’s still very young and made hard contact at a 30.5% clip this season. He doesn’t hit the ball on the ground a ton either, so the home run total should only increase. His lack of playing time as a catcher is concerning; that premium eligibility might not be around much longer.
Noah Syndergaard, SP
Syndergaard will seemingly finish 2023 the way he rang in the calendar year: teamless.
Plagued by injuries for much of his career, it was known before the season that Thor’s best years were behind him. Still, he pitched to a solid 3.94 ERA in 2022 and a move to the Dodgers in the offseason seemed to present a great opportunity to rack up some wins.
2023 brought yet another drop in velocity for the 31-year-old. His fastball once flirted with triple digits; it now sits near 92 MPH. He managed to generate solid results in 2022 despite a plummeting K-rate thanks to a solid ground ball rate and a 0.94 HR/9.
What a difference a year can make.
This year, the K-rate dropped even more. So did the groundball rate. And the HR/9 skyrocketed to 2.23, a number that settled in the bottom 6% of the league. In 18 starts with the Dodgers and Cleveland, he registered just 2 wins and produced an ERA of 6.50.
Verdict: Panic. Syndergaard didn’t make it to the end of the season on a big league roster and there are not signs pointing to improvement. A once-awesome pitcher whose career was derailed by injuries, Thor’s flowing locks will not find themselves on your fantasy roster next year.
Andrew Benintendi, OF, Chicago White Sox
Benintendi was signed in the offseason by the White Sox and, much like his team, delivered disappointing results. After posting a career-best .304 average in 2022, Chicago penned a 5-year, $75 million deal with the outfielder. He’s promptly hit .263 with a sub .700 OPS.
In the past two seasons, Benintendi has traded his power for excellent plate discipline, walking at a 9.1% clip and striking out in just 14.6% of plate appearances. Consequently, he’s hit just 10 home runs in the same time span. This paid dividends last year, thanks in large part to a gaudy .352 BABIP.
Verdict: Panic. A 20% hard hit rate is more than enough to have me rather concerned. Benintendi doesn’t hit for enough power to make the inconsistent average worth the risk on an outfielder.