Welcome back to Week 11 of our Patience or Panic series, where we take a look at three struggling players and provide recommendations on how you should react to their slow starts and subpar performance. In Week 9, I reviewed Boston’s Kristian Campbell, Milwaukee’s Jackson Chourio, and Arizona’s Zac Gallen. Let’s see how they’ve performed since:
- Kristian Campbell (patience): .273/.368/.394/.762, 115 wRC+
- Jackson Chourio (patience, mostly): .326/.341/.512/.853, 138 wRC+
- Zac Gallen (panic): 13.2 IP (2 GS), 6.44 FIP, 9% K/BB, 2.63 HR/9
As always, feel free to let us know in the comments or by tagging us on social media what players you would like to see us focus on in the future! Let’s dive right in.
Spencer Strider, RHP, Atlanta Braves
Strider, for lack of a better word, has had a brutal start to the year after returning from injury. He’s in line for a handful of career-worsts, which has fantasy managers wondering what to do with him.
*Skipped 2024 (7 ER in 9 IP prior to undergoing TJS)
Verdict: Panic. The underlying stuff just isn’t good at all. He’s lost a couple of ticks on his fastball (-2), is getting hit harder than ever, can’t generate nearly enough strikeouts, let alone come close to what he was doing before (36% in 2023), and the location (88 Loc+) has been putrid. His struggles — side effects of Tommy John surgery — are only worked out by throwing more innings. Sandy Alcantara is going through a similar rough patch with poor command coming off the surgery. It happens. In time, there’s no doubt in my mind that Strider can return to form, but from a fantasy standpoint, in June of 2025, it’s time to panic on the production.
Willy Adames, INF, San Francisco Giants
Adames, 29, has posted a two (2) wRC+ since May 21st… the second-worst in baseball over that span behind Jorge Polanco’s mark of zero (min. 60 PA). He has one (1) hit in the month of June, and has gone six consecutive games (23 PA) without a base knock. No, those numbers are not a typo. The near-$200 million slugger has yet to come close to reaching the expectations that were set for him this season in the Bay Area.
Verdict: Patience… mostly. I was really on the fence here and could’ve been swayed either way. What sold me is that it’s not a matter of physical regression (EV is the same, HH% has actually increased), it’s just a matter of correcting the swing. His PullAir%, something he’s been elite at year in and year out, has dropped significantly by 10%. The GB% and soft% have increased. His OppoAir% is also up by 5%. Fixing these, easier said than done, should allow him to start mashing again. Not to mention, the expected numbers (while still not great) allow me to believe he can return to form.
I have never been a big Adames guy (especially in fantasy) due to the low BA/high K combo. That being said, there is serious XBH potential if and when he can get going. I’d hang on just a little while longer.
Matt McLain, INF, Cincinnati Reds
McLain, 25, has not yet flashed the potential fantasy managers thought he would after returning from a labrum injury he suffered last spring.
Ironically, McLain’s numbers look eerily similar to Adames’ despite being two completely different players. The verdict, however, is going to be different.
Verdict: Panic. There are positives, like the EV and barrel% being in the same range when he was healthy, but I just can’t compute why you’d hold onto him with the loaded crop of talent available (unless this is a deep league, i.e., NL-only). McLain was very BABIP-reliant (.385) in his rookie year, where he posted stellar numbers. That number has dropped significantly to .238 this season. A speedy, BABIP-reliant bat that strikes out 31% of the time with some notable bottom-10% metrics (xBA, wOBA, K%) isn’t something I’d hold onto if I had other options available.
